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March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:51 pm

We are getting close to that point where I'd suggest we back off the models and just start watching the satellite and radar and surface reports to track this thing. Maybe the short range ones will have some value over the next few hours, but after that, reality is more accurate than virtual reality.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:53 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:pray for anyone in a supermarket right now

I just came out of walmart and home depot and both were well stocked and no hysteria in the least.

I realize other areas can be a zoo. I've never understood it. News media driven IMO God forbid I can't get to the store for 24 hours.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:55 pm

@billg315 wrote:We are getting close to that point where I'd suggest we back off the models and just start watching the satellite and radar and surface reports to track this thing. Maybe the short range ones will have some value over the next few hours, but after that, reality is more accurate than virtual reality.

Couldn't agree more. Storms of this magnitude do some crazy last minute things many times in the middle of them, that's why I still can't be 100% comfortable. Maybe 99% ATM.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:58 pm

18z NAM even further west...

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_20


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:59 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:pray for anyone in a supermarket right now

There is nothing left on the shelves in our ShopRite..One of the Mom's posted on FB
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:01 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAM even further west...

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_20

This really is not good.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:02 pm

850mb temps

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_T850_neus_21

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:03 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAM even further west...

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_20

This really is not good.

Yeah, that's a bit warmer than the 12z run and much warmer than the most recent SREF run, where the 850mb temps are not really a problem like they are with the NAM

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:07 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 IMG_0013.thumb.JPG.b7b2f32c183bc70bd0952de8c94f9a95
ALL of westchester is rare, usually its only the southern portion.
There's one that says blizzard let's both call dot.

Yeah usually just coastal WC. But the WINDS, like I said a few posts back, will be the main story. Coupled with heavy wet snow = WIDESPREAD power outages.
You see Rb map for winds, he cuts my street in half putting me at the 45 mark, your into the 70+, I find that ared to believe will be that big a diff but we will see, winds tend to get strong here especially on Yonkers high hill terrain. I hope Con-Ed is ready, the bitter cold will make staying inside even unbearable if power is lost, and Con Ed will not go up in buckets until gusts go below 30mph.  So if this continues into wed it could be long duration.... soul u and me are in it!! Snow and wind. Saw movable highway sign on CCP near cross county mall saying blizzard warning, tues travel unadvised....Um u think? I think roads will be shutdown for a time.

Agreed. And yeah, we're in the crosshairs as far as wind is concerned, J. I just drove from White Plains to Stamford and the signs on I 287 said winter storm warning's, and I was so pissed because that is incorrect LOL
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:11 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAM even further west...

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_20

This really is not good.

Yeah, that's a bit warmer than the 12z run and much warmer than the most recent SREF run, where the 850mb temps are not really a problem like they are with the NAM
this is aweful now I'm in the no snow.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:15 pm

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Vjd1Cpt

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:15 pm

i wouldn't jump at the NAM, 1 run..
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAM even further west...

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_20

This really is not good.

Yeah, that's a bit warmer than the 12z run and much warmer than the most recent SREF run, where the 850mb temps are not really a problem like they are with the NAM
this is aweful now I'm in the no snow.

Yeah, it's not for too long a period of time north of the city, but cuts totals and probably puts the ratio below 10:1 for a time

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:16 pm

BREAKING: MTA to shutdown all above ground service beginning at 4 AM.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:18 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:BREAKING: MTA to shutdown all above ground service beginning at 4 AM.

i knew he would, is Cuomo in hiding or something? Have a conference!
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:18 pm

A fair point. I suppose it comes down to how much one trusts the NAM inside of 18 hours.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:20 pm


That cutoff line for the real heavy stuff is getting to close for comfort.

Red Sox Suck gets 5-6  inches on that map. It would be hysterical to see Cantore there tomorrow in a drenching rain storm.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:22 pm

9 inches or less for me thsts a kick to the face. I hope it's a off run. The whole thing is crazy 40 inches plus over a large area...
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:23 pm

NAM is a pretty drastic cut out of the blue..lets see another run of that before we jump
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Post by GreyBeard Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

That cutoff line for the real heavy stuff is getting to close for comfort.

Red Sox Suck gets 5-6  inches on that map. It would be hysterical to see Cantore there tomorrow in a drenching rain storm.


If this thing keeps going west, that just might happen.Can't believe the sharp cutoff from a foot in the city, to an inch on long island.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:26 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

That cutoff line for the real heavy stuff is getting to close for comfort.

Red Sox Suck gets 5-6  inches on that map. It would be hysterical to see Cantore there tomorrow in a drenching rain storm.
Yes went to bed with surgery plums dancing and looking at a nightmare of possibly 1 inch  if that verifies.. Sad  I would have been happy with 6 to 12 if superintendent sees this we will have school tom Sad Sad


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:27 pm

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 30 StormTotalSnowWeb

WOW

I'M right in that 24-30 swath over Belvidere


Last edited by RJB8525 on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:27 pm

Holy crap the bluzzard warnings just went up everywhere!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:28 pm

Also increased winds for upton to 55 mph may still need go higher.
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:28 pm

Somebody should tell Alex that he might have hit the snow lotto.

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