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March 14, 2017 Storm In Review

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UnionWX
nutleyblizzard
amugs
dad4twoboys
aiannone
Dtone
billg315
sroc4
keliza52
devsman
Scullybutcher
Sparky Sparticles
docstox12
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
jake732
roccuweather
crippo84
jimv45
SENJsnowman
algae888
petep1000
track17
CPcantmeasuresnow
mikeypizano
Frank_Wx
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:41 pm

Ciao Ragazzi -

Clearly this storm did not go as planned for many forecasters. I said in one of the threads I do not make excuses for myself. Fact of the matter is, the NAO was positive, the upper level phasing was sloppy, there was a ridge over Newfoundland, and from a climo standpoint the month of March does not typically yield widespread Roidzilla type snowfall amounts. Upon further review it was pretty evident the writing was on the wall this one for the coastal plain. However, I am extremely happy for the interior since it seems they have missed out on being the bullseye with many storm events in the last few years. This set-up was RIPE for them.

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Gfs_z500a_namer_2

In addition to the red flags mentioned, I also do not like the look of the mid level trough. It is situated too far west and the system itself amplified too quickly. 500mb did not close off likely due to the lack of confluence or blocking to our north. There was virtually NO cold air in the middle levels. A 50-50 Low would have helped us in that department.

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review 700mb_sf

Lastly, the 700mb low tracked too far west. Lack of frontogenesis promoted lighter precip rates which limited dynamic cooling. This is why the mix line was able to advance so far N&W. It got into NW NJ and eastern PA at one point.

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Snow_reports

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Final_call_snow_map

Overall, a disappointing forecast but one with lessons to take away. Everything needed to be shifted N&W by 50-75 miles. There is also something to be said about the modeling. I mean, the 00z EURO last night - which was consistent for the last 3 days - had the 850mb isotherm well off the coast. All the models did a horrific job with the temperatures. BUT, that is why good Mets do not use models. If we just looked at the 500mb pattern like I just did above, one should be able to deduce models were likely to bust.

Lastly - many new members joined the forum. We also set a record for the number of people browsing. I encourage all "guests" who are not registered and prefer to just read to register and join in on the discussions. You do not have to know anything about the weather. I promise. I use to have a setting on the forum where guests could not view any pictures I upload. Obviously I took it down because I want everyone to gain as much information and knowledge as possible while reading the content of NJ Strong. It's not just me who provides so many great forecasts. I can name at least 10 people. Welcome to the community!

Have a great night

Francesco Paparatto

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:44 pm

Frank, in my backyard, you did well. I ended up with about 2 feet depending on who and where measured.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:50 pm

You pretty much nailed the interior Frank, no one got the coast right or coastal plain correct.

And speaking of the models last nights HRRRR had Red Sox Suck for 44 inches, they recieved 4.4 last I checked. Now that's a bad forecast.
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:52 pm

Thanks for all the hard work Frank. Don't be hard on yourself, the weather does what it wants. Stand up move on your part. Yo're still the best!

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Post by track17 Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:52 pm

Frank it happens. You don't have to explain yourself to anyone. Let's put winter behind us and look towards the tropics. You have done a great job.

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Post by petep1000 Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:52 pm

Frank, you and the other "10" are still tops in my book. In the end, it is still not an exact science. You guys did your best with the information you had. Models can't always predict storm track and you know what a difference 50 miles can make. Thanks for all you do Brother.....
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:55 pm

frank thanks for putting in the time. yea busted with the coastal plain but right on inland. frustrating storm. the last 36 hours the west trend started and never corrected. kudos to the nam as it was the warmest of all the models. you had me in the 14-20" range,while I did not measure accurately as the sleet compressed the snow before I measured, my two neighboring towns finished with 10" and 15". the 15" in Eastchester is quite surprising. so you were real close for my area. i'll go with the 10" and 38" for the season. above normal for me.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:19 pm

Frank and all the others (way more than 10 in my book), I am very grateful and appreciative for all of your hard work and your expertise. You all made me look like a genius all winter!

Back on Jan 7, I was able to tell everyone I knew in the Ocean and Monmouth that we were about to get hit pretty hard. Most of the Shore who relied on the pro Mets had no idea until they woke up to the storm on Saturday morning what was happening.

This time around, you all knew a big storm was coming way before anyone was talking about and you knew the coast was going to have mixing issues. The Hour by Hour still shots you guys posted from the model runs for Sun and Mon told the story...SENJ was going to get pummelled with heavy rain almost from the start. I told all my local friends and neighbors "We aint getting the snow, no need to endure a run to ShopRite".

For me, the big lesson was this: LR models can tell you a storm is a-coming, SR models can give you a general idea of the track, and now-casting tells you what is actually going to happen and where.

Mother nature wouldn't have it any other way!

Great job and thanks again.

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:20 pm

Forecasting weather is a tough job have to have tough skin its kind of like being a pro sports player got to forget quickly and move on to the next and learn from the past you did a great job.

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Post by crippo84 Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:51 pm

Although it was disappointing I also enjoyed this storm. Huge flakes came down before the changeover to the sleet storm. The walk to work tomorrow will be a mess.

I was slightly more disappointed in Nemo a few years back. That one exploded just a bit too late for the city while parts of LI received almost 3 feet in places.

Nothing takes the cake from Juno however. It was expected to be historic, potentially shattering the NYC snowfall record even the afternoon it had started snowing. Having never had experienced a major snowstorm, I was extremely disappointed with that bust. I think most of us were punched in the gut with that one. But last years unexpected record breaker made up for it for me anyway. Today's storm started trending out of our favor (coast-wise) starting early yesterday, if not earlier than that, so this one wasn't that upsetting. Again kudos to our forecasters here. I come here over any mainstream weather forecast.
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Post by roccuweather Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:02 pm

Thanks to all for the incredible input and insight. Thanks to those on this forum, I was able to tell my friend and school district to expect a large snowstorm on 3/14 eight days in advance practically down to the hour it was supposed to start. As is always the case, didn't come across a single person who had heard that anywhere else. There may have been some people left out of the big snow, or like in my case any snow whatsoever, but I still find that all incredibly impressive. Thank you to all.
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Post by jake732 Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:27 pm

Frank thanx as always. Anyone that showed frustration it had nothing to do with u are any of the pros on this board, it had to do with the fact pp were pissed that the storm didnt produce fot them...Me included. Have a great night
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:39 pm

Frank you did a great, tireless job no matter the outcome. The cutoff was amazing, this from NWS like Al said Eastchester NY recorded 15 inches while yonkers only 8, eastchester is a 10-15 min drive for me, its NOT far maybe less than 10 miles, and by trained spotters see below, the lowest amounts are southern westchester. Only one I think is wrong is white plains, they are well north and no way only got 9.4 I am over my seasonal average I cannot complain too much though I did earlier in a moment of frustration, the shoveling was back breaking, Yonkers schools are actually closed tomorrow too and the roads are still a mess, DOT has so far done a terrible job here.

WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
EASTCHESTER 15.2 855 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
JEFFERSON VALLEY 15.2 715 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
DOBBS FERRY 15.0 447 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 15.0 519 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
SOMERS 14.5 423 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
CROTON HEIGHTS 14.5 428 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 14.5 442 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 14.2 515 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
IRVINGTON 14.0 306 PM 3/14 PUBLIC
BEDFORD 13.7 600 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
ARMONK 12.4 948 PM 3/14 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
MONTROSE 12.0 428 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
KATONAH 11.0 504 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITE PLAINS 9.4 350 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
PELHAM 8.8 200 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
YONKERS 8.0 852 PM 3/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank you did a great, tireless job no matter the outcome. The cutoff was amazing, this from NWS like Al said Eastchester NY recorded 15 inches while yonkers only 8, eastchester is a 10-15 min drive for me, its NOT far maybe less than 10 miles, and by trained spotters see below, the lowest amounts are southern westchester.  Only one I think is wrong is white plains, they are well north and no way only got 9.4 I am over my seasonal average  I cannot complain too much though I did earlier in a moment of frustration, the shoveling was back breaking, Yonkers schools are actually closed tomorrow too and the roads are still a mess, DOT has so far done a terrible job here.

WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
  EASTCHESTER           15.2   855 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  JEFFERSON VALLEY      15.2   715 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  DOBBS FERRY           15.0   447 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  SCARSDALE             15.0   519 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  SOMERS                14.5   423 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  CROTON HEIGHTS        14.5   428 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  YORKTOWN HEIGHTS      14.5   442 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  MOUNT KISCO           14.2   515 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  IRVINGTON             14.0   306 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
  BEDFORD               13.7   600 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  ARMONK                12.4   948 PM  3/14  FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
  MONTROSE              12.0   428 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  KATONAH               11.0   504 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  WHITE PLAINS           9.4   350 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  PELHAM                 8.8   200 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
  YONKERS                8.0   852 PM  3/14  TRAINED SPOTTER

Confident we got a solid 10/11" here in Port Chester, patted down by sleet galore. Nasty clearing process out there; everything is rock solid.

I feel like we're all holed up in a weather house on here during times of tracking these type of events, and some of us post more than others and certainly carry different levels of knowledge in weather, but I for one am thankful for this community (kudos, Frank), am proud to be learning from you all, and really appreciate the forum companionship in our shared obsession! :-)
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:25 am

Frank, you and the others did the best you could with a very tricky mid March snowstorm.For us in the HV and N and W, you hit the nail on the head.Trying to forecast something as complex as Mother Nature is always tricky as there are so many variables that come into play that models can't get a grip on.Perhaps as years go by and more data is accrued, these kinks in the modeling will be worked out.Anyway, a fantastic storm for me and CP in our neck of the woods, cold , all snow for a good 18 hours.
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Post by Sparky Sparticles Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:59 am

As soon as I woke up yesterday seeing the rain I knew the counts would be off. Then it started it's little cha-cha, going back and forth from normal snow, to sleet, to fat flakes, to rain, to super fine snow, to hail and sleet, to - - you get the picture.

Our final tally here in urban Hudson County was 5.8 inches, and of that, 3.4 was snow, the rest a mix of all the other crap that fell.

This morning, everything is SOLID ice. Already a number of cars on the block have tried to get out, and if their tires weren't completely encased in ice because they didn't shovel out yesterday, everything under and around them was solid ice with no traction, so their tires just kept spinning. One guy across the street from my apartment has been at it for over an hour, spinning, spinning, spinning. He slid into the car parked next to him twice and just kept trying to get out. He slid a bit in the other direction again so at least their cars are no longer touching, but there's no denying who made the dent in the guy's fender. So far the only vehicle I've seen actually driving down the street was a Jeep.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:05 am

@Sparky Sparticles wrote:As soon as I woke up yesterday seeing the rain I knew the counts would be off. Then it started it's little cha-cha, going back and forth from normal snow, to sleet, to fat flakes, to rain, to super fine snow, to hail and sleet, to - - you get the picture.

Our final tally here in urban Hudson County was 5.8 inches, and of that, 3.4 was snow, the rest a mix of all the other crap that fell.

This morning, everything is SOLID ice. Already a number of cars on the block have tried to get out, and if their tires weren't completely encased in ice because they didn't shovel out yesterday, everything under and around them was solid ice with no traction, so their tires just kept spinning. One guy across the street from my apartment has been at it for over an hour, spinning, spinning, spinning. He slid into the car parked next to him twice and just kept trying to get out. He slid a bit in the other direction again so at least their cars are no longer touching, but there's no denying who made the dent in the guy's fender. So far the only vehicle I've seen actually driving down the street was a Jeep.

Just awful, and I have always said I would rather have plain rain than a slop storm like that.I got lucky because this storms more western track favored my area, the HV, with pure snow.Stay safe, Sir.
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Post by Scullybutcher Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:46 am

This decade has been great for LI snow storms. I rather everyone prepare for the worst, and if the storm tracks a different way, so be it. You guys do a great job and I thank you. The roads here were a slushy, icy mess yesterday. I'm glad people stayed home and stayed safe.
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Post by devsman Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:11 am

Just got to work in Flushing Queens. These roads are the worst of seen here in any storm. I had to park half mile away from my school. Every car is trapped in ice. Deblasio did a horrible job. Cars are stranded in the street. Bad bad job NYC.
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Post by keliza52 Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:16 am

Frank, this was an exciting storm to track.  With each storm I learn more from you.   We had snow, then sleet, then more snow and I am actually learning how to read the maps and models.   Thank you for your hard work and dedication to this forum.   You and the other non pro and pro forecasters have made it successful and the best place to go for weather .   Have a great day!

Peace,

_______
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:43 am

Thanks for the kind words! Between myself, Scott, Ray, Armando, and many many others...this place will always find a way to bring you the latest and most up to date information.

My favorite was the mid-day chat we did on Monday. That was SO much fun. I may have to do more of those in the future. I like them better than night one's.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:06 am

Id like to add a little something to this as well Frank if I may.  If you recall we had discussed this as a possible "triple phaser"  I posted a 500mb vorticity map that showed the energy embedded within all three branches of the jet before they interact.  Unfort it looks like only the Pac and STJ phased leading to a very warm cored system that was amped up aising heights out ahead of it.  This brought the track along the coast because the N energy was a tad to late.  Now fort it moved into an cold air mass so everyone started as snow.  But the Polar energy took way to long to get involved before phasing in with the other two branches.  The N energy really didn't start to phase until after the LP was just South of LI.  

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_54
March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_55
March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_56
March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_57


Seen a little differently

March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_58
March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_59


Unfort by the time the Polar jet began phasing the mid layer warm air surge had done its dirty work.


March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_60
March 14, 2017 Storm In Review Ecmwf_61

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by billg315 Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:50 am

I posted a story in banter, because I think its a better place for the discussion. But I would love to get people's thoughts/reactions because I found it stunning. The story I posted in Banter is an A.P. story where the NWS acknowledges thinking their prediction was overdone Monday afternoon, but not adjusting the totals downward because they wanted people to be prepared anyway. It's the first time I remember the NWS admitting they left a forecast out there they didn't really believe in, to achieve a "preparedness" goal. I submit, (and I really do respect these guys and the tough work they do) that for their credibility alone, as well as scientific honesty, this was a mistake.
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Post by Dtone Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:38 am

@devsman wrote:Just got to work in Flushing Queens. These roads are the worst of seen here in any storm. I had to park half mile away from my school. Every car is trapped in ice. Deblasio did a horrible job. Cars are stranded in the street. Bad bad job NYC.


Yeah it is bad. To be fair I think its more the nature of sleet compared to snow then anything the city could of done.
Just b/c there wasn't epic snow totals closer to the coast doesn't mean it wasn't a impactful storm. I would of had a easier time with 2 feet of pure snow than a foot of sleet. It sucks.
I have co workers from LI and they were shocked at the acclumations once they crossed the Whitestone.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:51 am

@billg315 wrote:I posted a story in banter, because I think its a better place for the discussion. But I would love to get people's thoughts/reactions because I found it stunning. The story I posted in Banter is an A.P. story where the NWS acknowledges thinking their prediction was overdone Monday afternoon, but not adjusting the totals downward because they wanted people to be prepared anyway. It's the first time I remember the NWS admitting they left a forecast out there they didn't really believe in, to achieve a "preparedness" goal. I submit, (and I really do respect these guys and the tough work they do) that for their credibility alone, as well as scientific honesty, this was a mistake.

Agree it was a mistake. The purpose of an accurate forecast is to gain the trust of the general public. When the next storm comes around, maybe less people will take their forecast seriously. Don't these guys have a way to measure their performance? If, say, at the end of the year you have an 85% accuracy but your goal is 90%, then you're hurting yourself personally too. I just do not understand that logic.

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