March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Upton wrote:Models agree that low pressure dives down through the Great Lakes
Region during Saturday with a secondary low pressure development
which emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. This
coastal low eventually tracks northeast, passing to the southeast of
the 40N/70W benchmark during Sunday. An inverted trough potentially
shifts through the CWA during Saturday night before the storm pulls
away. This could potentially serve as a focus of enhanced PCPN as an
upper trough/shortwave interacts with it. As usually the case, its
very difficult this far out to say with much confidence if/where the
inverted trough/enhanced PCPN actually occurs. In any case, there is
enough confidence to go with likely PoPs across the area with this
setup. PCPN would become likely west to east as Saturday progresses,
then tapers off Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Regarding PCPN type, there is no apparent elevated warm layer being
progged by any of the models, so PCPN type would therefore be
dependent on the boundary layer thermal profile and likely not
include sleet or freezing rain. Expecting and all-snow event only
for the northern fringe zones of the CWA with mixed rain and snow or
mainly rain farther south. Currently have a forecast of 1-3 inches
of snowfall north of the city, and 1 inch or less for Long Island,

amugs wrote:Interesting

UKIE

frank 638 wrote:Lee has his first early call so far he has everyone for 1 to 3 inches