March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

There is a 500mb lp imbeded into the broader 500mb lp, rare burst so has this winter been right??

amugs wrote:Oh boy NAM and PARA dropping da hammer here can u say SECS??. At a STEM competition all day and now hacing a St. Padds party with 20 plus so not on Al lot at all tonight. 

little margin for error there especially still 24 hours out but this would be hysterical for NYC if it verified. It would top the blizzard for them.

amugs wrote:Woot woot

12.6 right over Central Park. I highly doubt it, but I'm not going to question the KING NAM>

ROYALTY. NAM!!!!!! The king is dead. Long live the king!

this is definitely a go east trend

if some of these verify lol..

No more east! I want slight tick west

mt holly increased their totals by an inch. i'm on the northern border of the wall that they built on Warren County for the 7' mark

The Euro run is horrible

mmanisca wrote:The Euro run is horrible

As is the RGEM

i'll be surprised if i get anything more than 2"

If this storm gives NYC a foot of snow, I will drink a glass of water directly out of the Gowanus Canal!!

WeatherBob wrote:If this storm gives NYC a foot of snow, I will drink a glass of water directly out of the Gowanus Canal!!

By NYC do you mean CPK. Just because the Conservancy doesn't measure 12" doesn't mean they don't get it. Maybe do it if at least one of the four nearby stations (Newark, LaGuardia, JFK, or Central Park) gets it.

Whats the Euro showing Have not seen anything other then its horrible

oldtimer wrote:Whats the Euro showing   Have not seen anything other then its horrible

Euro did show a trough. It's caving to the other models.

It's just an average model now

Math you are too funny!! It wasn't meant to be specific, it was meant to be funny!!

Looks like the NAM is colder with the bulk of the precip after sunset. Could be more accumulation due to this, lets see what it does!!

Nam lost the inverted snows for the area

I think this storm is going to be a dud.  There is no moisture to work with and the upper trough is being affected by that lobe in the upper air (see 500 and 300 MB) of the previous trough to our NE.

Ehhh not a good start with the Nam

Goodnight

Upper trough is not even neutral. Its a positive tilt. Will probably go negative 100's of miles off the coast.

And the 0Z RGEM is a non event snow wise for NYC/LI...

And the 0Z GFS is also a dud...

And bring on spring.

This is a non event overall coating to a couple of inches at best on models. Radar shows two pieces of energy.  Amazing how the NAM and GFS went from a secs to basically nada. 
Oh well cold arrives again later next week after a brief warm up.
Thinking we break the streak this month at 20 consecutive AN months temps wise.

THE NAM went from KING to peasant on this one. Those maps showing 12.6 inches over NYC yesterday were amusing though.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:THE NAM went from KING to peasant on this one. Those maps showing 12.6 inches over NYC yesterday were amusing though.

Lately (like over the past couple years) it seems like the models have been like Lucy picking up the football just as Charlie Brown is about to kick it with many of these storms. Gotta be very frustrating for meteorologists.

The NAM as we once knew it is officially being put out to pasture on the 21st and the new nam the Para is taking over. Hopefully it performs better than the this NAM. Time will tell.
CP LOL with the above post