this seasons hurricanes
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this seasons hurricanes
Im amazed that the tropics are so quiet The predictions on the amount of storms has so changed Did the National Hurricane Center update their forecast Frank what changed in the atmosphere??
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Re: this seasons hurricanes
There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html
In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html
In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
Re: this seasons hurricanes
Hey Frank I think I read or heard somewhere also that although the air has remained dry out in the eastern and central Atlantic the northern Atlantic ridge had been fairly strong and extended southward enough to cause a general sinking of the air in these areas. Actually I think it was Levi Cowan a few weeks back who pointed out that although the SAL had/has been pronounced that the precipital water values in the dry areas were still relatively high. He felt that the sinking air from the stronger than normal northern atlantic ridge combined with the SAL is what really has prevented the convection from firing up within these tropical waves east of the Caribbean. This may be why the MJO pulse has been unable to head further east into these areas thus far. In fact a perfect example of it is occurring right now at lat 15 long 40. I am going to try and write a quick blog on it on my lunchFrank_Wx wrote:There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html
In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: this seasons hurricanes
This makes complete sense. Thanks.sroc4 wrote:Hey Frank I think I read or heard somewhere also that although the air has remained dry out in the eastern and central Atlantic the northern Atlantic ridge had been fairly strong and extended southward enough to cause a general sinking of the air in these areas. Actually I think it was Levi Cowan a few weeks back who pointed out that although the SAL had/has been pronounced that the precipital water values in the dry areas were still relatively high. He felt that the sinking air from the stronger than normal northern atlantic ridge combined with the SAL is what really has prevented the convection from firing up within these tropical waves east of the Caribbean. This may be why the MJO pulse has been unable to head further east into these areas thus far. In fact a perfect example of it is occurring right now at lat 15 long 40. I am going to try and write a quick blog on it on my lunchFrank_Wx wrote:There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html
In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
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