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this seasons hurricanes

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Post by oldtimer Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:48 am

Im amazed that the tropics are so quiet The predictions on the amount of storms has so changed Did the National Hurricane Center update their forecast Frank what changed in the atmosphere??

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:58 am

There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html

In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:58 am

Nice to see you posting, paisan
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Post by sroc4 Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html

In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
Hey Frank I think I read or heard somewhere also that although the air has remained dry out in the eastern and central Atlantic the northern Atlantic ridge had been fairly strong and extended southward enough to cause a general sinking of the air in these areas.  Actually I think it was Levi Cowan a few weeks back who pointed out that although the SAL had/has been pronounced that the precipital water values in the dry areas were still relatively high.  He felt that the sinking air from the stronger than normal northern atlantic ridge combined with the SAL is what really has prevented the convection from firing up within these tropical waves east of the Caribbean.  This may be why the MJO pulse has been unable to head further east into these areas thus far.  In fact a perfect example of it is occurring right now at lat 15 long 40.  I am going to try and write a quick blog on it on my lunch


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:There was an update on the 8th of August and at that time they were still saying an above normal season...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html

In my opinion, the Saharan dry air and the lack of MJO pulsing has kept this season quiet up to this point. I do still think there will be a period around September 10th when things wake up.
Hey Frank I think I read or heard somewhere also that although the air has remained dry out in the eastern and central Atlantic the northern Atlantic ridge had been fairly strong and extended southward enough to cause a general sinking of the air in these areas.  Actually I think it was Levi Cowan a few weeks back who pointed out that although the SAL had/has been pronounced that the precipital water values in the dry areas were still relatively high.  He felt that the sinking air from the stronger than normal northern atlantic ridge combined with the SAL is what really has prevented the convection from firing up within these tropical waves east of the Caribbean.  This may be why the MJO pulse has been unable to head further east into these areas thus far.  In fact a perfect example of it is occurring right now at lat 15 long 40.  I am going to try and write a quick blog on it on my lunch
This makes complete sense. Thanks.
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