May 2017 Observations & Discussions
+27
kalleg
1190ftalt
RJB8525
Snow88
CPcantmeasuresnow
Vinnydula
HectorO
Radz
EnyapWeather
docstox12
dkodgis
cooladi
GreyBeard
Dtone
Quietace
billg315
frank 638
skinsfan1177
Fededle22
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
essexcountypete
nutleyblizzard
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
31 posters
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Dam now why can't we have this Storm in Jan or Feb
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
18z GEFS are big hits shore Beyer start to watch this and flood prone areas.


amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions



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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Yeah, this is going to be pretty narsty, unfortunately :/
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? 

EnyapWeather- Posts : 57
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?
The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Ugh man, I hope this thing stalls a little longer. I have a flight to catch on Saturday a 9 am with reservations to stay somewhere. a 1-day cancellation would literally just stop my vacation.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Yea I have a camping trip this week. Or had
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?Frank_Wx wrote:EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?
The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
EnyapWeather- Posts : 57
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Enyape,EnyapWeather wrote:So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?Frank_Wx wrote:EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?
The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
Yes if it stalls we would have ir get big rains. Th Canadian doesn't stall it that is why it shows less. 18z GFS is showing flooding rains
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
The GFS is considerably drier than yesterday's runs. Looks like models backed off the idea of a stalling system. In general, I would say 1-2" of rain likely with pockets of 2"+ possible over Long Island / Jersey Shore


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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
hit 32 this morning.
Nothing like a mid May frost.
LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing like a mid May frost.
LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Finally some good spring weather starting from Tues Wed Thurs and probably Fri with temps in the 70s to neat 80 by Wed
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
18z @RGEM SAYS GFS is being a GooFuS again in cutting backbwhich it did with the last storm and we got double what it called for


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
1-2 inches is a good call
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.
Nothing like a mid May frost.
LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.
Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!
33.8, 90%, 29.78F
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
41* this morning fir me low.
GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.
cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
06z gfs has 2.5 to 3 for tomorrow, still not good.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
amugs wrote:41* this morning fir me low.
GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean
Jeeze if the GEFS shows 2 inches plus I cannot imagine how high the individual heavy hitters must be.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
docstox12 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.
Nothing like a mid May frost.
LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.
Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!
33.8, 90%, 29.78F
Doc, I've seen my fair share of late May frosts around here, it happens fairly often but you're usually talking about an hour or two of freezing or slightly below when they do happen so May 20th is usually a pretty good date for planting.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
HectorO wrote:Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!
Light to moderate rainfall will start between 7-8am. I think 9am is early enough where you should be OK. Even the winds are supposed to be light at that time. Have a safe flight!
weatherwatchermom wrote:Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks
The later your flight into NY is, the better. The heaviest part of the rain will move through between Noon and 7pm. I think after 8 or 9pm we'll see conditions get better.
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
TX Frank we leave Fla at 330 and get in at 630...have had glorious weather all week..sad not bringing it home with us
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
No...........................................................jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.
cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions
Quietace wrote:No...........................................................jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.
cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
SON OF A ***********!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was thinking of doing a video on this and surprising everybody -_- lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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