Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

by **frank 638** Tue May 09, 2017 7:56 pm

Dam now why can't we have this Storm in Jan or Feb

by **amugs** Tue May 09, 2017 10:32 pm

18z GEFS are big hits shore Beyer start to watch this and flood prone areas.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ens_apcpn_us_26

by **amugs** Tue May 09, 2017 10:34 pm

by **rb924119** Wed May 10, 2017 12:29 am

Yeah, this is going to be pretty narsty, unfortunately :/

by EnyapWeather Wed May 10, 2017 8:42 am

5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 May10211

by **Frank_Wx** Wed May 10, 2017 11:30 am

EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.

by **HectorO** Wed May 10, 2017 11:35 am

Ugh man, I hope this thing stalls a little longer. I have a flight to catch on Saturday a 9 am with reservations to stay somewhere. a 1-day cancellation would literally just stop my vacation.

by **Vinnydula** Wed May 10, 2017 12:13 pm

Yea I have a camping trip this week. Or had

by EnyapWeather Wed May 10, 2017 1:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.

So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?

by **amugs** Wed May 10, 2017 7:49 pm

EnyapWeather wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible?

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?

Enyape,
Yes if it stalls we would have ir get big rains. Th Canadian doesn't stall it that is why it shows less. 18z GFS is showing flooding rains
May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 IMG_8694.PNG.23fef3747d42770d6ce5a994549dfd99

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 IMG_8694.PNG.23fef3747d42770d6ce5a994549dfd99

by **Frank_Wx** Thu May 11, 2017 8:04 am

The GFS is considerably drier than yesterday's runs. Looks like models backed off the idea of a stalling system. In general, I would say 1-2" of rain likely with pockets of 2"+ possible over Long Island / Jersey Shore

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu May 11, 2017 9:19 am

hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **frank 638** Thu May 11, 2017 5:11 pm

Finally some good spring weather starting from Tues Wed Thurs and probably Fri with temps in the 70s to neat 80 by Wed

by **HectorO** Thu May 11, 2017 8:37 pm

Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!

by **amugs** Thu May 11, 2017 9:15 pm

18z @RGEM SAYS GFS is being a GooFuS again in cutting backbwhich it did with the last storm and we got double what it called for

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 PR_000-084_0000

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 PR_000-084_0000

by **Snow88** Thu May 11, 2017 10:58 pm

1-2 inches is a good call

by **docstox12** Fri May 12, 2017 5:15 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.

Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!

33.8, 90%, 29.78F

by **amugs** Fri May 12, 2017 6:57 am

41* this morning fir me low.

GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Img_2040

by **jmanley32** Fri May 12, 2017 6:57 am

Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.

by **jmanley32** Fri May 12, 2017 8:17 am

06z gfs has 2.5 to 3 for tomorrow, still not good.

by **jmanley32** Fri May 12, 2017 8:18 am

amugs wrote:41* this morning fir me low.

GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

Jeeze if the GEFS shows 2 inches plus I cannot imagine how high the individual heavy hitters must be.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri May 12, 2017 9:47 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.

Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!

33.8, 90%, 29.78F

Doc, I've seen my fair share of late May frosts around here, it happens fairly often but you're usually talking about an hour or two of freezing or slightly below when they do happen so May 20th is usually a pretty good date for planting.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri May 12, 2017 10:02 am

Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks

by **Frank_Wx** Fri May 12, 2017 10:47 am

HectorO wrote:Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!

Light to moderate rainfall will start between 7-8am. I think 9am is early enough where you should be OK. Even the winds are supposed to be light at that time. Have a safe flight!

weatherwatchermom wrote:Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks

The later your flight into NY is, the better. The heaviest part of the rain will move through between Noon and 7pm. I think after 8 or 9pm we'll see conditions get better.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri May 12, 2017 11:45 am

TX Frank we leave Fla at 330 and get in at 630...have had glorious weather all week..sad not bringing it home with us

by **Quietace** Fri May 12, 2017 4:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.

No...........................................................

by **rb924119** Fri May 12, 2017 5:58 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC. Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
No...........................................................

SON OF A ***********!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was thinking of doing a video on this and surprising everybody -_- lmao

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