NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions

+27
kalleg
1190ftalt
RJB8525
Snow88
CPcantmeasuresnow
Vinnydula
HectorO
Radz
EnyapWeather
docstox12
dkodgis
cooladi
GreyBeard
Dtone
Quietace
billg315
frank 638
skinsfan1177
Fededle22
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
essexcountypete
nutleyblizzard
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
31 posters

Page 4 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Tue May 09, 2017 10:34 pm

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16
May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17
May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Wed May 10, 2017 12:29 am

Yeah, this is going to be pretty narsty, unfortunately :/

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by EnyapWeather Wed May 10, 2017 8:42 am

5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 May10211
EnyapWeather
EnyapWeather

Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Bergen County NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 10, 2017 11:30 am

@EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 May10211

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by HectorO Wed May 10, 2017 11:35 am

Ugh man, I hope this thing stalls a little longer. I have a flight to catch on Saturday a 9 am with reservations to stay somewhere. a 1-day cancellation would literally just stop my vacation.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Vinnydula Wed May 10, 2017 12:13 pm

Yea I have a camping trip this week. Or had
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 772
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by EnyapWeather Wed May 10, 2017 1:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 May10211

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?
EnyapWeather
EnyapWeather

Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Bergen County NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed May 10, 2017 7:49 pm

@EnyapWeather wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@EnyapWeather wrote:5.1 Inches for New York! Is that even possible? May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 May10211

The low pressure seems to almost stall once it gets here. The Canadian model shows much LESS rainfall. In the 1-2" zone.
So if it stalls, wouldn't it give us more rain? (Assuming it stalls over us) Why would the Canadian Model say less?
Enyape,
Yes if it stalls we would have ir get big rains. Th Canadian doesn't stall it that is why it shows less. 18z GFS is showing flooding rains
May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 IMG_8694.PNG.23fef3747d42770d6ce5a994549dfd99

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 11, 2017 8:04 am

The GFS is considerably drier than yesterday's runs. Looks like models backed off the idea of a stalling system. In general, I would say 1-2" of rain likely with pockets of 2"+ possible over Long Island / Jersey Shore

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu May 11, 2017 9:19 am

hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Thu May 11, 2017 5:11 pm

Finally some good spring weather starting from Tues Wed Thurs and probably Fri with temps in the 70s to neat 80 by Wed

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2366
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 38
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by HectorO Thu May 11, 2017 8:37 pm

Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu May 11, 2017 9:15 pm

18z @RGEM SAYS GFS is being a GooFuS again in cutting backbwhich it did with the last storm and we got double what it called for 

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 PR_000-084_0000

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 Thu May 11, 2017 10:58 pm

1-2 inches is a good call
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Fri May 12, 2017 5:15 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.

Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!

33.8, 90%, 29.78F
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Fri May 12, 2017 6:57 am

41* this morning fir me low.

GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Img_2040

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Fri May 12, 2017 6:57 am

Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC.  Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Fri May 12, 2017 8:17 am

06z gfs has 2.5 to 3 for tomorrow, still not good.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Fri May 12, 2017 8:18 am

@amugs wrote:41* this morning fir me low.

GEFS overnight say OP is off with this mean

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Img_2040

Jeeze if the GEFS shows 2 inches plus I cannot imagine how high the individual heavy hitters must be.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri May 12, 2017 9:47 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hit 32 this morning.

Nothing like a mid May frost.

LOVE IT AND THE YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CP, yet ANOTHER morning in the low 30's, 33.8 right now.In Mahwah, the last frost date was May 20 so up here it must be close to June 1.Maybe you can verify that living here so many years.I'll be taking a chance getting the rosemary, basil and tomato plants May 20 up here,lol.

Glad for you, Frank and the other Yankee Fans on the board,It's a great, young team!

33.8, 90%, 29.78F

Doc, I've seen my fair share of late May frosts around here, it happens fairly often but you're usually talking about an hour or two of freezing or slightly below when they do happen so May 20th is usually a pretty good date for planting.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri May 12, 2017 10:02 am

Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3026
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 12, 2017 10:47 am

@HectorO wrote:Hey Frank, do you think Saturday AM like around 9 would be bad conditions for flight delays or are they expecting worst conditions in the afternoon? Thanks in advance!

Light to moderate rainfall will start between 7-8am. I think 9am is early enough where you should be OK. Even the winds are supposed to be light at that time. Have a safe flight!

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Help on a cruise will dock in FLA tom supposed to fly home tom evening can someone update me please we fly into new York..thanks

The later your flight into NY is, the better. The heaviest part of the rain will move through between Noon and 7pm. I think after 8 or 9pm we'll see conditions get better.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri May 12, 2017 11:45 am

TX Frank we leave Fla at 330 and get in at 630...have had glorious weather all week..sad not bringing it home with us
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3026
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace Fri May 12, 2017 4:14 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC.  Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
No...........................................................

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Fri May 12, 2017 5:58 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Well I better get my tropics thread up anyone notice 18z and 00z GFS has our first tropical system up the east coast around hr 300 hit in SC.  Its not unheard of to have systems now adays in May though 300 hrs out im very skeptical.

cmc has it too but within 240 hrs.
No...........................................................

SON OF A ***********!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was thinking of doing a video on this and surprising everybody -_- lmao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

May 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: May 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum