Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[sroc4]

End of the loop it looks like an eye wall may be trying to form.

[jmanley32]

Nhc highlighted new spot in Bahamas. Cmc really blows up 99l and euro is much weaker maybe heading to gfs? Wouldn't that b just the bee's knees. Gfs gets this right now the euro will look bad.

[jmanley32]

Franklin 1st hurricane of season. Nhc upped total storms 14 to 19 I think said 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 majors. That's a lot. Go b busy few months if the higher end of that plays out.

Update Franklin now up to a 85mph hurricane. Does anyone have those EPS maps with all the blue, green and red lines that was posted days ago, would be interested to see what it looks like now that the last Euro run was much weaker with 99L and the GFS still has nothing. CMC is only one to blow it up...no surprise there.

[sroc4]

Good morning.  Franklin made landfall last night in SE Mexico.  



Re 99L:

There is some convection associated with 99L but it is centered to the NE of the LLC (Low Level Circulation) leaving the LLC exposed over night.  This morning there may be some convection beginning to fire up closer to the LLC as seen by the last few frames of the sat loop however.   99L continues to be influenced by mild-moderate wind shear(although that has been slowly improving with time), the upper level low now positioned immediately to the North, and the dreaded dry air.








The European has backed off significantly in how it is handling the ULL to the N of 99L.  For about a day or two of model runs the European degraded this upper level feature rather quickly and developed a fairly robust anti cyclone over top of 99L allowing for much more favorable conditions for development.  A few days ago the euro had this happening by Friday into Sat.  This no longer seems to be the case in this time frame on the model.  

So long as this upper level low remains, and the dry air continues to hitch a ride I don't see how this thing develops much further than a tropical depression or storm at best.  Even if it does get that far the upper level pattern along the east coast is likely to quickly recurve the system harmlessly OTS.  

I will not completely write the system off yet as we are just now passing the 60W longitude, and the euro still wants to try and develop anticyclonic flow aloft in the 48-72 hr time frame, when the center of the system is N of the Bahamas over warm waters.  As we all remember a little earlier this summer, about 6-12hrs before trop storm Don was classified as a tropical storm just off the west coast of Fla it had a 20% chance to develop into a tropical system within 24-48hrs.

[sroc4]

As an aside.  Looking at the SAL forecasts and the positioning and strength of the Saharan ad Azores Ridge I think African waves will cont to struggle mightily to develop in the MDR for at least the next couple of weeks.  I said it at the beginning of the month, a well times robust African wave, or a wave that survives the long journey across the Atlantic can of course still develop and be impactful in close.  Dry air will def cont to influence the Atlantic season for at least the next few weeks.  (let me know if the animation does not show below)

[jmanley32]

Amazing the gfs got it this time over the euro. So now we can't believe the euro eitget. No pt in looking at any models and as my mother used to say just look out the window then you will know the weather lol

[sroc4]

Never trust any model lock stock and barrel. Esp with tropics and esp beyond 5days. Euro has been spot on with 99L with the exception of 1-2days of runs. Plus nothing is set in stone just yet anyway.

[jmanley32]

Oh you know I know not to take verbatim but its just ironic once the Euro started show something the GFS stopped and now Euro is coming around to GFS.  Seems tropics are more difficult for models than any other type of storm. Maybe since the SAL is so bad our systems will mostly be coming from in close or caribbean or GOM. I know u said it may get better later but im curious to see if its just not go be a busy cabo verde year.

[rb924119]

Oh you know I know not to take verbatim but its just ironic once the Euro started show something the GFS stopped and now Euro is coming around to GFS.  Seems tropics are more difficult for models than any other type of storm. Maybe since the SAL is so bad our systems will mostly be coming from in close or caribbean or GOM.  I know u said it may get better later but im curious to see if its just not go be a busy cabo verde year.

I, for one, am certainly not sleeping on 99L because most modeling has backed off. The Euro brought it back to some degree yesterday's 00z run, the Canadian is insistent, the GFS is finally now beginning to depict a closed low once into and north of the Bahamas, which is a trend toward more development, and the NAM which has been FIRE is showing development now that it's getting into its temporal range. Watch the windshield wipers, here. I like the overall setup for rapid development in close. I may be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong once, than have gone with guidance so far and have said "it's not, it is, it's not, it is, maybe?". The next 48-72 hours will be important.

[weatherwatchermom]

Oh you know I know not to take verbatim but its just ironic once the Euro started show something the GFS stopped and now Euro is coming around to GFS.  Seems tropics are more difficult for models than any other type of storm. Maybe since the SAL is so bad our systems will mostly be coming from in close or caribbean or GOM.  I know u said it may get better later but im curious to see if its just not go be a busy cabo verde year.

I, for one, am certainly not sleeping on 99L because most modeling has backed off. The Euro brought it back to some degree yesterday's 00z run, the Canadian is insistent, the GFS is finally now beginning to depict a closed low once into and north of the Bahamas, which is a trend toward more development, and the NAM which has been FIRE is showing development now that it's getting into its temporal range. Watch the windshield wipers, here. I like the overall setup for rapid development in close. I may be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong once, than have gone with guidance so far and have said "it's not, it is, it's not, it is, maybe?". The next 48-72 hours will be important.

thanks rb for the update...

[sroc4]

Oh you know I know not to take verbatim but its just ironic once the Euro started show something the GFS stopped and now Euro is coming around to GFS.  Seems tropics are more difficult for models than any other type of storm. Maybe since the SAL is so bad our systems will mostly be coming from in close or caribbean or GOM.  I know u said it may get better later but im curious to see if its just not go be a busy cabo verde year.

I, for one, am certainly not sleeping on 99L because most modeling has backed off. The Euro brought it back to some degree yesterday's 00z run, the Canadian is insistent, the GFS is finally now beginning to depict a closed low once into and north of the Bahamas, which is a trend toward more development, and the NAM which has been FIRE is showing development now that it's getting into its temporal range. Watch the windshield wipers, here. I like the overall setup for rapid development in close. I may be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong once, than have gone with guidance so far and have said "it's not, it is, it's not, it is, maybe?". The next 48-72 hours will be important.

No way I'm sleeping on this system either.  This morning the convection seems to be getting organized over the center of LLC.  The ULL appears to be weakening, and is positioned such that it almost appears to be aiding in creating an outflow channel on the north side of the system.  The looking at vorticity maps the vorticity at surface, 850 and 700 seems to be more vertically stacked with 500mb not that far off.  Shear continues to back off and the dry air is slowly but surely disappearing as well.  Only mild shear surrounding 99L which has been expected.  I still don't believe we have to wory about the EC with this system but even that I will hesitate to say is a done deal.  To reiterate prev sentiment it aint officially over until its caught in the westerly's and over the N Atlantic.

[jmanley32]

It is looking a bit better, yeah as per models even though they do not have a huge system other than the CMC, they do not effect the EC even with the open wave. But you never know stranger things have happened, can't say bye as you said till its caught up. It is the weekend so this is the time frame where if we see development it should start to happen. NHC at 30/50 which isnt too enthused at this time.

[rb924119]

Agree with the minimal chance of direct impact to East Coast, Scott. I never was enthused for a direct impact either, but I'm just referring to development haha the only way it could was if we had a trough split and back to the southwest but that's clearly not going to happen ideally for this system.

[SoulSingMG]

Well. That escalated quickly.

00z GFS hauls a Cat 3 Gert into the Mid-Atlantic next week.

[Math23x7]

Well. That escalated quickly.

00z GFS hauls a Cat 3 Gert into the Mid-Atlantic next week.

Hmmm, looking at the 0Z GFS, I think you meant the week after. At around hr 360, it has it making landfall where you mentioned.

As I have mentioned before, until the ECMWF comes on board, I will remain skeptical about it.

[SoulSingMG]

Well. That escalated quickly.

00z GFS hauls a Cat 3 Gert into the Mid-Atlantic next week.

Hmmm, looking at the 0Z GFS, I think you meant the week after.  At around hr 360, it has it making landfall where you mentioned.

As I have mentioned before, until the ECMWF comes on board, I will remain skeptical about it.

Yes yes, next next week I meant. ;-) Thx Math!

[skinsfan1177]

Will see that's fantasy land and also would like to see euro come on board

[rb924119]

I think 99L begins to pop today. Nice burst of convection overnight looks like it's beginning to centralize. It's clearly removed from the negative influence of the upper trough that was plaguing it the last several days, and it looks like it's in a much more moist environment. As for the modeling, verrrryyyyyyyy interesting dual going on between the GFS/EURO camp, where nothing really comes of it, and the NAM/CMC/UKMET/recent hurricane models camp where Gert is born. Clearly, I like the latter.

[jmanley32]

Come on guys even I dont believe the GFS showing that system into midatlantic, the GFS has done this 4x this year and not 1 has developed. The GFS has lost all my credibility IMO.

[jmanley32]

Also the 00z GFS showed this system developing in the 2-4 day range (Tuesday latest), and the NHC does not even have a area of watch out in the MDR, so that to me tells me its bologne.

[Snow88]

The tropics should really come to life soon according to JB and past history

[rb924119]

Anddddd hereee weeeeeeeeee...............GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

[Snow88]

Anddddd hereee weeeeeeeeee...............GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Fish

[jmanley32]

We have td8 progged to become Gert and a fish storm. Next!

[jmanley32]

Gotta love the 18z gfs with a 938mb cat 5 due east of Carolinas. I mean man the gfs is just crying wolf left and right. When do we ever have a system that far north that strong.bif it's right better watch out cuz if that were to head to land oh dayumm.

[jmanley32]

Okay now I might believe the models as the new wave is marked off Africa and all 3 models are aggressive with it's development and into Bahamas area by day 10. We will see but if models are right this one develops really fast. Gfs of course plays it's dooms day with a major into sc which cmc is east of fl and euro on southern tip of fl.

[Radz]

We have td8 progged to become Gert and a fish storm. Next!

With soon to be Gert recurving and staying a fish storm, really nice wave just emerged off the African coast... of course the GFS will bring it into the southeast coast as a major hurricane in 10-14 days

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