2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
+31
Grselig
devsman
jake732
track17
Dtone
RJB8525
Joe Snow
Sanchize06
mwilli5783
aiannone
algae888
Dunnzoo
Radz
SoulSingMG
frank 638
Math23x7
skinsfan1177
EnyapWeather
dkodgis
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
sroc4
sabamfa
Snow88
weatherwatchermom
gigs68
GreyBeard
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
Quietace
35 posters
Page 20 of 40
Page 20 of 40 • 1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21 ... 30 ... 40
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Interesting NAM run so far. Irma definitely better organized, bringing lots of rain to NC and VA. Also has Harvey back over the water re-strengthening.
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
thanks for postingSanchize06 wrote:Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
weatherwatchermom wrote:thanks for postingSanchize06 wrote:Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here
You're welcome!
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I'd love for a nice hurricane to come through. Nothing devastating but something fun to sit through.
EnyapWeather- Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Bergen County NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Ok, see, now that NAM run looked much more reasonable to me, through I'd still contend it should end up further northwest than that given the look of H5 through Hatteras. However, it's certainly a heck of a lot better looking than before with respect to what I think theoretically should occur. As Chris Berman would say: "Tickkkkkkk, tick-tickkkkkkkkk, tick-tickkkkkkkkkk" lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
SREFs DEFINITELY bimodally distributed between my idea and an OTS solution, but appear* to be dragging the low out because of CFI based on what I can tell, though cannot exclusively confirm.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS still shoots it quickly OTS
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
If it comes up the coast let's have a some fun I say tracking and reporting. If not get out ots then.
Look at what is out in the MDR as per CMC
Look at what is out in the MDR as per CMC
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
amugs wrote:If it comes up the coast let's have a some fun I say tracking and reporting. If not get out ots then.
Look at what is out in the MDR as per CMC
Anybody else seeing AT&T bars with this, or is it just me? Ahahahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
CMC has discontinuous upper levels: 500hPa verbatim results in what you see with the track. 250hPa verbatim argues for a coastal hugger 150 miles or so further west. H5 should not string out like does with the progged H7 looking the way it does, and by doing allows heights to fall more out ahead via positive vorticity advection (forcing for ascent to its east).
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.
56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
yeah I know it was mainly worst to the South and the flooding in the northeast was aweful. Not to discount the Jersey hit though I remember the eye passed right over me ragged at the time but it cleared and then went back stormy was kinda cool.Dunnzoo wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.
56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Dunnzoo wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.
56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene
By far the worst larger-scale damage was in New England because of all the flooding rains, though, from what I can remember.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
FINALLY A MODEL RUN THAT LOOKS GOOD TO ME!! 06z NAM looks like how I think it should look lol UKMET is OTS if extrapolated, but because it's still beyond the end of its temporal range I'm not putting too much weight to it.....yet.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
EURO Ensembles came northwest overnight, though just far enough away, the mean is, to spare any significant impacts from our area. Can't see the inidividual members because WxBell's site seems to be down -_-
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I'm start think this will pass barely by waving haha jman see ya lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Rb what is the timing of the cold front sweeping through. If timing works out and it misses tjis then I see a trop cyclone in TS format maybe CAT 1 making its way up here. Darn westerlis are kicking in tjis time of year.
@JMAN Irene was crippling with flooding up here in NNJ.
@JMAN Irene was crippling with flooding up here in NNJ.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
amugs wrote:Rb what is the timing of the cold front sweeping through. If timing works out and it misses tjis then I see a trop cyclone in TS format maybe CAT 1 making its way up here. Darn westerlis are kicking in tjis time of year.
@JMAN Irene was crippling with flooding up here in NNJ.
If "Irma to be" does develop, the front will never make it here until after "Irma to be" passes. There will be too much heat release ahead of it, so the actual front will likely stall as the flow continues to back from west, west-southwest, southwest, and south-southwest via the changing tilt of the trough axis.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I think we are gonna have a BIG TIME NAM run shortly. We shall see.........Good thing I was already prepping my official first call for this system Well, first official GRAPHICAL first call lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
And that's what happens when you try to guess what the model is gonna do ahahaha NAM looks OTS through 54, though borderline Cat 1 at hatteras
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Definitely a Cat-1 as it's passing over Hatteras.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
The crickets are deafening right now lmfaoooooo I can take a hint, though, don't worry ahahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
In rb we trust
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Rb what did the sref show? Nam still not in great range yet. Nhc says it will merge the front.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 20 of 40 • 1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21 ... 30 ... 40
Page 20 of 40
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|