NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

+31
Grselig
devsman
jake732
track17
Dtone
RJB8525
Joe Snow
Sanchize06
mwilli5783
aiannone
algae888
Dunnzoo
Radz
SoulSingMG
frank 638
Math23x7
skinsfan1177
EnyapWeather
dkodgis
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
sroc4
sabamfa
Snow88
weatherwatchermom
gigs68
GreyBeard
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
Quietace
35 posters

Page 20 of 40 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21 ... 30 ... 40  Next

Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:34 pm

Interesting NAM run so far. Irma definitely better organized, bringing lots of rain to NC and VA. Also has Harvey back over the water re-strengthening.

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:51 pm

Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_49

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:59 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_49
thanks for posting
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:11 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_49
thanks for posting

You're welcome!

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by EnyapWeather Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:31 pm

I'd love for a nice hurricane to come through. Nothing devastating but something fun to sit through.
EnyapWeather
EnyapWeather

Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Bergen County NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:32 pm

Ok, see, now that NAM run looked much more reasonable to me, through I'd still contend it should end up further northwest than that given the look of H5 through Hatteras. However, it's certainly a heck of a lot better looking than before with respect to what I think theoretically should occur. As Chris Berman would say: "Tickkkkkkk, tick-tickkkkkkkkk, tick-tickkkkkkkkkk" lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:45 pm

SREFs DEFINITELY bimodally distributed between my idea and an OTS solution, but appear* to be dragging the low out because of CFI based on what I can tell, though cannot exclusively confirm.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:48 pm

GFS still shoots it quickly OTS

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:52 pm

If it comes up the coast let's have a some fun I say tracking and reporting. If not get out ots then.
Look at what is out in the MDR as per CMC
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Img_2055

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:00 am

amugs wrote:If it comes up the coast let's have a some fun I say tracking and reporting. If not get out ots then.
Look at what is out in the MDR as per CMC
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Img_2055

Anybody else seeing AT&T bars with this, or is it just me? Ahahahaha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:25 am

CMC has discontinuous upper levels: 500hPa verbatim results in what you see with the track. 250hPa verbatim argues for a coastal hugger 150 miles or so further west. H5 should not string out like does with the progged H7 looking the way it does, and by doing allows heights to fall more out ahead via positive vorticity advection (forcing for ascent to its east).

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:11 am

Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:27 am

jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one  update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.

56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene


_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:41 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one  update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.

56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene

yeah I know it was mainly worst to the South and the flooding in the northeast was aweful. Not to discount the Jersey hit though I remember the eye passed right over me ragged at the time but it cleared and then went back stormy was kinda cool.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:58 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Phone bars lol yes. Nhc still at only 50% if they go name her by tonight I'd have be a pretty big jump chance wise by ngc in one  update. The Sr def is more west. Tick tock. Dunxoo Irene wasn't that eventful here some trees down heavy rain but nothing we didn't bound back from fast. I'm sure the shore was much worse. I am sorry but unless anyone else knows what's up we need to put a apb out on our leader I know he isn't much into summer weather but he almost always chimes in or even signs in from time to time. From what I can see it's been a month or 2. I really hope frank is doing ok. Yes math I saw ur post last WK.

56 deaths jman, they retired the name
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene


By far the worst larger-scale damage was in New England because of all the flooding rains, though, from what I can remember.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:00 am

FINALLY A MODEL RUN THAT LOOKS GOOD TO ME!! 06z NAM looks like how I think it should look lol UKMET is OTS if extrapolated, but because it's still beyond the end of its temporal range I'm not putting too much weight to it.....yet.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:04 am

EURO Ensembles came northwest overnight, though just far enough away, the mean is, to spare any significant impacts from our area. Can't see the inidividual members because WxBell's site seems to be down -_-

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:13 am

I'm start think this will pass barely by waving haha jman see ya lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:34 am

SREFs!!!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:45 am

Rb what is the timing of the cold front sweeping  through. If timing works out and it misses tjis then I see a trop cyclone in TS format maybe CAT 1 making its way up here. Darn westerlis are kicking in tjis time of year. 

@JMAN Irene was crippling with flooding up here in NNJ.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:54 am

amugs wrote:Rb what is the timing of the cold front sweeping  through. If timing works out and it misses tjis then I see a trop cyclone in TS format maybe CAT 1 making its way up here. Darn westerlis are kicking in tjis time of year. 

@JMAN Irene was crippling with flooding up here in NNJ.

If "Irma to be" does develop, the front will never make it here until after "Irma to be" passes. There will be too much heat release ahead of it, so the actual front will likely stall as the flow continues to back from west, west-southwest, southwest, and south-southwest via the changing tilt of the trough axis.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:02 am

I think we are gonna have a BIG TIME NAM run shortly. We shall see.........Good thing I was already prepping my official first call for this system Wink Wink Wink Well, first official GRAPHICAL first call lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:32 am

And that's what happens when you try to guess what the model is gonna do ahahaha NAM looks OTS through 54, though borderline Cat 1 at hatteras

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:37 am

Definitely a Cat-1 as it's passing over Hatteras.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:44 am

The crickets are deafening right now lmfaoooooo I can take a hint, though, don't worry ahahaha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:47 am

In rb we trust
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:56 am

Rb what did the sref show? Nam still not in great range yet. Nhc says it will merge the front.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 20 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 20 of 40 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21 ... 30 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum