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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Grselig
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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:11 pm

Great video Rb well explaines. Learned a lot once again. Thanks for putting this together. Pushbthebjet into Maine and allow the heights to rise so it comes all the ways up!!

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:THE SREFS ARE INSANITY
YUUUGE HIT!!

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:13 pm

srefs give NYC 1 inch of rain. wind gusts to 50
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 SREFSLPSpread21057

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:14 pm

Precip nice
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 SREFUS24Precip21060

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:16 pm

amugs wrote:Great video Rb well explaines. Learned a lot once again. Thanks for putting this together. Pushbthebjet into Maine and allow the heights to rise so it comes all the ways up!!

Thanks! And yeah, the SREFs would make Jman happy, that's for darn sure!!!

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:18 pm

If you look at the next like three frames, mugs, the standard deviation in the MSLP gets ridiculous, which means there are some outrageous low pressures in there lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:18 pm

I'm waiting on the EWALL to update the US views so I can look at the individual members lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:19 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey guys just got in from a very long day unable to check in. So rb your forecast doesn't appear to get anywhere near NYC area,or is that still a possibility, mugs posted a map where its near on top of us which model is that??  Do you think we see TS or hurricane watches posted tomorrow or tuesday out of this even if it comes close but misses?  Or still too early to tell, nice job on prediction of when it would go up on percentage and form nonetheless.  I will probably stay up for the SR models but LR probably don't hold alot of info better on the SR now that we are within 3 days of Irma either upon us or offshore.  LOL no if she misses I wont be at the beach waving, just have to watch and track the next, I expect many more before season is over, not even near peak yet.

Note the cone, Jman lol Though I don't think it hits NYC directly, a closer track is certainly on the table. Tropical storm advisories maybe, but probably no higher, as things stand now. And thanks!! haha And oh God I hope not. Harvey has been enough.
Great video, that part about the cooler spot on atlantic was very interesting.  Floyd was pretty bad in CT where I lived.  Will keep watching this, but as you said we could be surprised and it develops more (or less) than expected.  Models have not been good with intensity this year as you know so we will see, I am right with ya, and I think your thoughts are valid, if they verify or not doesn't make you wrong. Weather especially tropics as you know is nowhere near a exact science.  If you are even close to either senario you win. Now if we get a Irene track or one that is NE over NYC but not up into NE, then your still right but you said your thinking agaisnt that but who knows right?

Zoo, glad to hear the staff was try help fwef!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:21 pm

rb, wil lthose winds make it into southern westchester on the sref as shown now? We still have time for more tics west too, can you post the individuals?  Saying at this time wind gusts to 50mph has me a bit concerned it could be stronger than we think.  Will keep watch of your posts.


Maybe changes forther NW with your map?  Maybe we get all the way west on your cone fun! Sorry to others that do not enjoy this, I wish no harm on anyone.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb, wil lthose winds make it into southern westchester on the sref as shown now? We still have time for more tics west too, can you post the individuals?  Saying at this time wind gusts to 50mph has me a bit concerned it could be stronger than we think.  Will keep watch of your posts.


Maybe changes forther NW with your map?  Maybe we get all the way west on your cone fun! Sorry to others that do not enjoy this, I wish no harm on anyone.

If some of these members verify? Yes, there will be pretty big winds in Westchester ahaha

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Screen12


And anything is possible right now. I feel pretty confident with where I am right now given modeling and everything else. And I think that's well understood; we are ALL that way. You're not alone.


Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:32 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:29 pm

NAM NW from 18z

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_41

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:32 pm

OH BOY:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Screen13

That jet over New England means business

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:35 pm

W.H.A.T.?!!!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Screen14

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:35 pm

Oh wow, the NAM stalls lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:36 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM NW from 18z

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_41

Yeah it is. Another 75 miles or so. Slower too, which would signify strengthening. Given that H5 map I just posted, this thing should EXPLODE just east of us.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:40 pm

HI-RES NAM DOWN TO 984 150 MILES FURTHER NORTHWEST!!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Screen15

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:47 pm

DAMN still a depression at 35 MPH. I failed Sad Sad

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:HI-RES NAM DOWN TO 984 150 MILES FURTHER NORTHWEST!!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Screen15

Tomorrow's runs should be intresting if they come a little further NW and maybe pick up better on the intensity

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:DAMN still a depression at 35 MPH. I failed Sad Sad

I am confused what??
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:09 pm

3k NAM bombs away track ur taking about Ray
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_47

NHC inside Hatteras booyaahhh!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Img_2064

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:13 pm

amugs wrote:3k NAM bombs away track ur taking about Ray
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_47

NHC inside Hatteras booyaahhh!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Img_2064

They are riding the hurricane models SO hard lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:14 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:DAMN still a depression at 35 MPH. I failed Sad Sad

I am confused what??

I said it would be a named storm at the 11pm update......I missed by four miles per hour -_-

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:14 pm

amugs wrote:3k NAM bombs away track ur taking about Ray
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_47

NHC inside Hatteras booyaahhh!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Img_2064
wpw that would prolly b a cat 1 there. I'm thinking this is go be a last minute one in terms of stronger and closer. I think nhc cone may shift west tomorrow.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:15 pm

RGEM

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_15

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:16 pm

Nah ur good Ray it's still having some trouble but if the 3km is at all right a 984 off hateras on boy def ts conditions here. Maybe she hits cat 2 wouldn't that b something.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:16 pm

RGEM northwest by about 75 miles from 18z, but it's still not really in range yet.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:22 pm

What do we think of the 3km NAM, thats much stronger than any other model at that time suggesting a rather rapid intensification, and some of those sref DO take a very irene like track of at least close enough to the area to give TS MAYBE higher conditions, but many are also well offshore.
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