NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

+31
Grselig
devsman
jake732
track17
Dtone
RJB8525
Joe Snow
Sanchize06
mwilli5783
aiannone
algae888
Dunnzoo
Radz
SoulSingMG
frank 638
Math23x7
skinsfan1177
EnyapWeather
dkodgis
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
sroc4
sabamfa
Snow88
weatherwatchermom
gigs68
GreyBeard
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
Quietace
35 posters

Page 39 of 40 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:08 pm

There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).
Thanks

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jake732 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:33 pm

so bernie rayno gave a video...in short he does NOT like the gfs and leans to the euro..
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:38 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Okn0ow
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:49 pm

Snow88 wrote:2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Okn0ow
Okay if thats the Euro ensembles thats more like the GFS than euro operational.  Already in the 40-50%, yikes.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:01 pm

Irma video upload in progress

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:09 pm

Here's the first video regarding my bust with what I thought should have/would have been Irma:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYQXhpTGVmZXZPNms

Administrators, please feel free to move this to a different/it's own thread if you feel it would be better. Enjoy!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:17 pm

Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1

Thanks for positing!! I was curious about what he had to say!! Pretty cool when you end up coming to a similar conclusion as a true pro with completely independent research/studies Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:46 pm

Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:50 pm

Snow88 wrote:Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

Just what everybody needs GFS Model Brick Tired Mad

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:51 pm

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!
Very good analysis but I do have one question.  You said earlier your thoughts would excite some people, I guess you meant the people that wanted this to stay far away? So your pretty much discounting the GFS and not to worry really that it might make it up this way, darn.  I know its still early but you seem pretty sure.  And on another note that would be terrible for the GOM.  So in this case I hope ur wrong haha, and if your right good job!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray! You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray!  You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
I am hearing a lot about the two compromising on around carolinas, which if it was a cat 3 or higher would still give us a hefty storm up here if it turned north once making landfall or next to the coast.  I mean hearing it on other forums, etc.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:38 pm

Hwre is the players peeps recurve Typhoon Sanvu. He will.have yuugge implications downstream.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Img_2071

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:40 pm

Ventrice calibrated EURO EPS hcane cone and possibility 

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Img_2072

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:43 pm

wow 20-30% chance of a major hurricane, thats pretty high for this far out! ray are you taking these maps into consideration? Not much shows your track. I would also expect that to be much higher with the 00z at least near the system because it was already a major before that map came out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jake732 Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:12 pm

gulf of mexica impact is most likely from the sounds of the pros....east coast is just not lkely
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:37 am

0z GFS coming in with a possible major hit

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:42 am

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms10

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:44 am

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms11
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms12
Binghamton Landfall lol!

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:38 am

aiannone wrote:2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms11
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms12
Binghamton Landfall lol!
That is near to a WCS for the area wow...
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:48 am

CMC is in line with Euro Hmmm...ray i am guessing you passed out lol, but who was supposed to get excited about your thoughts and placement cuz if GFS is wrong its just another snooze for us.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:31 am

Euro is stronger by about 10mb and further north, slightly slower at hr 144.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Ecmwf_11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:33 am

Big difference the the ridge and trough from 00z yesterday.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:38 am

Euro is north of the islands huge shift, heading in direction of GFS or a median like stated before? I know no ones here LOL, I am not working right now so I said wth ill stay up and you all can see the play in the morning.lol


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Ecmwf_13
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 39 of 40 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum