Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Frank_Wx]

There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).

[jmanley32]

There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).

Thanks

[jake732]

so bernie rayno gave a video...in short he does NOT like the gfs and leans to the euro..

[Snow88]

[jmanley32]

Okay if thats the Euro ensembles thats more like the GFS than euro operational.  Already in the 40-50%, yikes.

[rb924119]

Irma video upload in progress

[rb924119]

Here's the first video regarding my bust with what I thought should have/would have been Irma:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYQXhpTGVmZXZPNms

Administrators, please feel free to move this to a different/it's own thread if you feel it would be better. Enjoy!

[jmanley32]

Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1

[rb924119]

Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1

Thanks for positing!! I was curious about what he had to say!! Pretty cool when you end up coming to a similar conclusion as a true pro with completely independent research/studies

[Snow88]

Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

[rb924119]

Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

Just what everybody needs

[rb924119]

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

[jmanley32]

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Very good analysis but I do have one question.  You said earlier your thoughts would excite some people, I guess you meant the people that wanted this to stay far away? So your pretty much discounting the GFS and not to worry really that it might make it up this way, darn.  I know its still early but you seem pretty sure.  And on another note that would be terrible for the GOM.  So in this case I hope ur wrong haha, and if your right good job!

[sroc4]

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray! You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

[jmanley32]

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray!  You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

I am hearing a lot about the two compromising on around carolinas, which if it was a cat 3 or higher would still give us a hefty storm up here if it turned north once making landfall or next to the coast.  I mean hearing it on other forums, etc.

[amugs]

Hwre is the players peeps recurve Typhoon Sanvu. He will.have yuugge implications downstream.

[amugs]

Ventrice calibrated EURO EPS hcane cone and possibility 

[jmanley32]

wow 20-30% chance of a major hurricane, thats pretty high for this far out! ray are you taking these maps into consideration? Not much shows your track. I would also expect that to be much higher with the 00z at least near the system because it was already a major before that map came out.

[jake732]

gulf of mexica impact is most likely from the sounds of the pros....east coast is just not lkely

[aiannone]

0z GFS coming in with a possible major hit

[aiannone]

[aiannone]

Binghamton Landfall lol!

[jmanley32]

Binghamton Landfall lol!

That is near to a WCS for the area wow...

[jmanley32]

CMC is in line with Euro Hmmm...ray i am guessing you passed out lol, but who was supposed to get excited about your thoughts and placement cuz if GFS is wrong its just another snooze for us.

[jmanley32]

Euro is stronger by about 10mb and further north, slightly slower at hr 144.

[jmanley32]

Big difference the the ridge and trough from 00z yesterday.

[jmanley32]

Euro is north of the islands huge shift, heading in direction of GFS or a median like stated before? I know no ones here LOL, I am not working right now so I said wth ill stay up and you all can see the play in the morning.lol

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