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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by jake732 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:33 pm

so bernie rayno gave a video...in short he does NOT like the gfs and leans to the euro..
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Post by Snow88 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:38 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Okn0ow
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:49 pm

@Snow88 wrote:2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Okn0ow
Okay if thats the Euro ensembles thats more like the GFS than euro operational.  Already in the 40-50%, yikes.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:01 pm

Irma video upload in progress

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:09 pm

Here's the first video regarding my bust with what I thought should have/would have been Irma:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYQXhpTGVmZXZPNms

Administrators, please feel free to move this to a different/it's own thread if you feel it would be better. Enjoy!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:17 pm

Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Bernie likes Euro but not discounting GFS, how do you guys feel about the trough doing what the GFS shows versus the Euro? Also man he can keep himself on a even keel, alot of those comments would have me just snap lol

https://www.pscp.tv/AccuRayno/1zqJVRMkAWAJB?t=1

Thanks for positing!! I was curious about what he had to say!! Pretty cool when you end up coming to a similar conclusion as a true pro with completely independent research/studies Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by Snow88 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:46 pm

Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:50 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Media hype is starting

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

Just what everybody needs GFS Model Brick Tired Mad

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:51 pm

Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!
Very good analysis but I do have one question.  You said earlier your thoughts would excite some people, I guess you meant the people that wanted this to stay far away? So your pretty much discounting the GFS and not to worry really that it might make it up this way, darn.  I know its still early but you seem pretty sure.  And on another note that would be terrible for the GOM.  So in this case I hope ur wrong haha, and if your right good job!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:34 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray! You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Here is the second video detailing my thoughts about where Irma may go:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Give it some time to render in HD for yourselves; it gets hard on the eyes after a couple of minutes otherwise. I just wanted to get the link posted because I'm about to pass out aha

Administrators, again, if you feel the need to move this to somewhere else, please feel free. Enjoy!!

Great video Ray!  You and I are parallel on pretty much every point. Except I don't thing the trough split retrogrades quite as far west as you. My cone, gun to head, is between cape canaveral and OBX. But even that is low confidence.

Here is Levi cowins latest video also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
I am hearing a lot about the two compromising on around carolinas, which if it was a cat 3 or higher would still give us a hefty storm up here if it turned north once making landfall or next to the coast.  I mean hearing it on other forums, etc.
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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:38 pm

Hwre is the players peeps recurve Typhoon Sanvu. He will.have yuugge implications downstream.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Img_2071

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:40 pm

Ventrice calibrated EURO EPS hcane cone and possibility 

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Img_2072

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:43 pm

wow 20-30% chance of a major hurricane, thats pretty high for this far out! ray are you taking these maps into consideration? Not much shows your track. I would also expect that to be much higher with the 00z at least near the system because it was already a major before that map came out.
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Post by jake732 Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:12 pm

gulf of mexica impact is most likely from the sounds of the pros....east coast is just not lkely
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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:37 am

0z GFS coming in with a possible major hit
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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:42 am

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms10
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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:44 am

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms11
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms12
Binghamton Landfall lol!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:38 am

@aiannone wrote:2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms11
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Gfs_ms12
Binghamton Landfall lol!
That is near to a WCS for the area wow...
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:48 am

CMC is in line with Euro Hmmm...ray i am guessing you passed out lol, but who was supposed to get excited about your thoughts and placement cuz if GFS is wrong its just another snooze for us.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:31 am

Euro is stronger by about 10mb and further north, slightly slower at hr 144.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Ecmwf_11
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:33 am

Big difference the the ridge and trough from 00z yesterday.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:38 am

Euro is north of the islands huge shift, heading in direction of GFS or a median like stated before? I know no ones here LOL, I am not working right now so I said wth ill stay up and you all can see the play in the morning.lol


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 39 Ecmwf_13
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