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July Disco/ Observations

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:53 am

True nam does over do precip need wait and see hrrr could be serious in places.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:10 pm

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/abrams/heavy-rain-to-kick-off-middle-atlantic-weekend/70002302

Elliot says maybe 2-4 inches in places like SE New York
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:31 pm

Wow I'm going to need a bigger boat!July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Downlo10
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:54 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow I'm going to need a bigger boat!July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Downlo10

You are def in a good spot Skins

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:20 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow I'm going to need a bigger boat!July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Downlo10

You are def in a good spot Skins
holy crap I've never seen white!! Push that a bit North I've not or ever seen that much rain jeeze.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:21 pm

Looking at sr models looks like winds could get a bit Gusty too.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:31 pm

This is like the cutoff for a snowstorm we don't usually see systems like this during summer do we? Still a lot to iron out could go more North could go soth as u guys said that Bock going to play s big part. When will the worst rain be best guess for NYC area?
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:15 pm

This summer reminds me the summer of 09 I say this because we had a cool wet spring to somewhat warm summer and I think we had a nor Easter in June or July that year .then when we got into the fall we had many nor Easter and of course we had a great winter are we going into that direction  Question

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:31 am

This system is much ado about nothing for the most part for the majority of our board.  Here is why.  Look these two 500mb maps first from 12z euro on the 26th and the second is from last nights euro 00z.  In both maps we have a positively tilted trough.  But a few days ago the upper level low (ULL) was being modeled much stronger which led to a deeper surface LP and a more expansive precip shield bringing the heavier rains north into the area.  But as you can see by the second surface map below that the weaker ULL results in a weaker surface reflection and a precip shield that reflects a weaker surface low and more organized along the frontal boundary keeping the bulk of the heavy rain well to our south.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 12z_2610
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 00z_2910
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 12z_2611
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 00z_2911

However the fact of the matter is is that the progressive nature of the trough is not allowing the intensification of the surface LP like a trough that is digging and tilting neutral and or negative.  The result is more of a weaker LP system riding along a frontal boundary similar to typical over running events that we see in the winter.  Now we still have some impressive dynamics enhancing lifting; in particular there is a favorable upper level jet over NE leading to divergence aloft.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 200mb_10


The result of this is the surface LP is in a favorable position (Right rear quadrant of the jet streak) such that the divergent air aloft leads to enhanced rising air at the surface to replace those air parcels.  With a strong low level jet we have a deep moisture laden air mass as seen by dew points in the upper 60's and 70's being forced to rise by the natural warm air advection from the frontal boundary, rising air from the LP coming off the coast, a baroclinic zone, and enhanced lifting thanks to a favorable upper level jet.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Untitl10

As of now it looks as if the frontal boundary and center of surface LP track will stay far enough tour south to prevent most of us from the N 1/3rd of Jersey on northward from getting into any of the impressive rainfall totals.  If the frontal boundary ends up a tad further N than what I see currently modeled then we will see higher amounts.  Still a little wiggle room to some of these details but over all this an enhanced version of an over running event due to the potential for the atmosphere to saturate with much higher moisture content as seen by dew points vs the winter time dew points.  The potential energy release is much higher in summer due to this fact.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:40 am

@sroc4 wrote:This system is much ado about nothing for the most part for the majority of our board.  Here is why.  Look these two 500mb maps first from 12z euro on the 26th and the second is from last nights euro 00z.  In both maps we have a positively tilted trough.  But a few days ago the upper level low (ULL) was being modeled much stronger which led to a deeper surface LP and a more expansive precip shield bringing the heavier rains north into the area.  But as you can see by the second surface map below that the weaker ULL results in a weaker surface reflection and a precip shield that reflects a weaker surface low and more organized along the frontal boundary keeping the bulk of the heavy rain well to our south.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 12z_2610
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 00z_2910
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 12z_2611
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 00z_2911

However the fact of the matter is is that the progressive nature of the trough is not allowing the intensification of the surface LP like a trough that is digging and tilting neutral and or negative.  The result is more of a weaker LP system riding along a frontal boundary similar to typical over running events that we see in the winter.  Now we still have some impressive dynamics enhancing lifting; in particular there is a favorable upper level jet over NE leading to divergence aloft.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 200mb_10


The result of this is the surface LP is in a favorable position (Right rear quadrant of the jet streak) such that the divergent air aloft leads to enhanced rising air at the surface to replace those air parcels.  With a strong low level jet we have a deep moisture laden air mass as seen by dew points in the upper 60's and 70's being forced to rise by the natural warm air advection from the frontal boundary, rising air from the LP coming off the coast, a baroclinic zone, and enhanced lifting thanks to a favorable upper level jet.  

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Untitl10

As of now it looks as if the frontal boundary and center of surface LP track will stay far enough tour south to prevent most of us from the N 1/3rd of Jersey on northward from getting into any of the impressive rainfall totals.  If the frontal boundary ends up a tad further N than what I see currently modeled then we will see higher amounts.  Still a little wiggle room to some of these details but over all this an enhanced version of an over running event due to the potential for the atmosphere to saturate with much higher moisture content as seen by dew points vs the winter time dew points.  The potential energy release is much higher in summer due to this fact.

Great analysis sroc
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:45 am

Also like to point out today was forecasted to be mostly cloudy bit have had a lot of sun so far and a dewpoints of 72
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:20 am

My local forecast went from all rain Saturday to just Overcast.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:29 am

Yep sunny, no rain in forecast anymore, what a day or two will do.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:30 am

How far south or north that frontal boundary ends up will dictate rainfall amounts.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Namussfcwbg

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:56 am

We have all seen last minutes shifts so dont count out a decent rainfall just yet

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:15 pm

@sroc4 wrote:We have all seen last minutes shifts so dont count out a decent rainfall just yet

Thanks Sroc for your analysis.....keep us posted!!
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:56 pm

Looking at the precipitation totals on both the short-range and long range models for the Mid-Atlantic event, this is basically the rainfall equivalent of the February 5th-6th, 2010 snowstorm which missed me here in NYC while places 50-100 miles to my south/southwest got two feet of snow. NYC is projected to get little if any precip. tonight into tomorrow.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:43 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow I'm going to need a bigger boat!July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Downlo10

hey we were down your neck of the woods for our summer vacation this year..spent 2.5 weeks on boat hitting all the board walks...where do you keep your boat?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:06 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow I'm going to need a bigger boat!July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Downlo10

hey we were down your neck of the woods for our summer vacation this year..spent 2.5 weeks on boat hitting all the board walks...where do you keep your boat?

I wish I had a boat lol
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Post by Dtone Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:26 am

@Math23x7 wrote:Looking at the precipitation totals on both the short-range and long range models for the Mid-Atlantic event, this is basically the rainfall equivalent of the February 5th-6th, 2010 snowstorm which missed me here in NYC while places 50-100 miles to my south/southwest got two feet of snow. NYC is projected to get little if any precip. tonight into tomorrow.

I was thinking the same thing. Its also almost a year to the day of the epic flash flooding event in Ellicott City, MD.
A yr later the mid atlantic is getting soaked but through a much more unsual storm for summer.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:35 am

Wow not much here only .20 in the bucket 45 miles in AC almost 6 inches
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:24 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow not much here only .20 in the bucket 45 miles in AC almost 6 inches

If this was winter how pissed would we all be?? I was watching serious echo returns on the radar just skimming the S shore of LI all morning. Think of how angry Syo would have been. lol Love you James if your lurking tongue

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:50 am

Decent recovery from the winter and spring and arctic sea ice content.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Sea_ice_only
July Disco/ Observations - Page 6 Cursnow

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:29 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow not much here only .20 in the bucket 45 miles in AC almost 6 inches

If this was winter how pissed would we all be??  I was watching serious echo returns on the radar just skimming the S shore of LI all morning.  Think of how angry Syo would have been.  lol  Love you James if your lurking  tongue

LMAO Doc, yeah, Jimmy sure would have blown a gasket on this one.One the good sign, the OTI Sanitarium would have broken all records for attendance.Hmmmmm, if this pattern is a harbinger for winter, I'm gonna have to build a new wing and hire extra staff members,LOL.

By the way, spot on analysis yesterday of this system.I guess it would be categorized a heartbreaker Miller B,LOL.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:46 am

no rain here either just cloudy cool and breezy kinda strange to see this esp its the last weekend of july .i guess little taste of fall weather we are having lol

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