Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans

Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.

Def conflicting data Mugs regarding enso, but Ill tell you what.  The actual data, SST and SOI, has been screaming at another Nina.  Looking at the MSLP anomaly forecasts over the next 2 weeks the SOI looks to continue Mod-strong positive.  If that keeps up a La Nina is destined. Latest ONI is down as well.  

We are def in mostly neutral conditions, but we shall see going forward what the Sept/Oct/Nov time frame yields.  The forecasts and current conditions are nothing like what was predicted back in the spring however.  We should have been in the weak El Nino by now and that clearly is not the case.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

60.9 DEGREES 93%

Got a good soaking last night, 1.07 inch in the bucket.

Is summer over for us for the Northeast because I don't see any heat waves coming up in the future looking at the longer range forecast temperature is supposed to be near or below average not that I am completing because I hate the heat and humidity

Thought I share farmers almanac winter 2018.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/pointpleasant/farmers-almanac-releases-winter-2017-forecast-new-jersey?utm_content=newjersey&utm_campaign=blasts&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social

A quick update on ENSO.  SST anomalies cont to head towards La Nina territory.  he SOI conts to be in the positive territory; although the 30day and 90day avg still is in neutral territory. The atmosphere as a whole wont typically respond as a true la nina or el nino until the conditions in the Trop Pac persistently remain in a specific state.  Think of it this way.  If a large Ferris wheel has been spinning in one direction for awhile, even though the forces on the wheel have been spinning it in the one direction have reversed it still takes time to slow the wheel before you then reverse its direction.  This is why when looking at something like the SOI the 30day and even more so the 90avg is a better indicator of the true state of ENSO.  The ONI is also a good indicator of ENSO in that it is a measure of multiple factors and gives a value that is an avg of all evaluated factors for a 3 month time frame.  So as you can see although latest conditions in the SST dept have shifted towards the La Nina state.............:







Current ONI and 90/30day SOI avg still aren't there.  Overall atmosphereic conditions have behaved in a more neutral to weak El Nino type state over North America rather than a La Nina, but if we cont to see SOI values in this positive state for the next month or so I would expect a warmer Sept and Oct.   
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

The question is where are the ONI and SOI 90 day avgs in Nov Dec time frame?  Once consistently for 2-3months or more in a particular zone the more likely the Ferris wheel will spin in that direction.  We shall see.

Wow. My phone says at 4 it is supposed to rain 1.24’ in one hour.

algae888 wrote:doc and cp get ready for some fall like weather late next week.  nws disco.

"A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week.The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend."

Yep, that mid to late August cold evening event where we get into the 40's.That first hint of Fall coming. I'll be watching Al!

Dunnzoo wrote:Big bust here, .75" over the course of the whole day..oh well

Bigger bust here Janet, only .27 for this whole event.

Hey gang,
Very busy and emotional few days for me with my oldest son leaving the nest going off to college at Penn State, College Park. Drove through the storms wow in the Poconos yesterday afternoon. Anyway, very cool end to August and we can possibly see a big storm with this set up, coastal or worse trop cyclone if this does happen.

Another morning in the 50's, 56.4 right now.Warm, in the 80's to Wednesday, then a cool period 70's-50's coming up.