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Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:14 am

60.9 DEGREES 93%

Got a good soaking last night, 1.07 inch in the bucket.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:47 am

Is summer over for us for the Northeast because I don't see any heat waves coming up in the future looking at the longer range forecast temperature is supposed to be near or below average not that I am completing because I hate the heat and humidity

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:00 pm

Long lived Tornado warning with a history of damage in PA, wonder if those storms will hold up at all into the area, far western NJ has a watch.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:53 pm

Thought I share farmers almanac winter 2018.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/pointpleasant/farmers-almanac-releases-winter-2017-forecast-new-jersey?utm_content=newjersey&utm_campaign=blasts&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:25 am

A quick update on ENSO.  SST anomalies cont to head towards La Nina territory.  he SOI conts to be in the positive territory; although the 30day and 90day avg still is in neutral territory. The atmosphere as a whole wont typically respond as a true la nina or el nino until the conditions in the Trop Pac persistently remain in a specific state.  Think of it this way.  If a large Ferris wheel has been spinning in one direction for awhile, even though the forces on the wheel have been spinning it in the one direction have reversed it still takes time to slow the wheel before you then reverse its direction.  This is why when looking at something like the SOI the 30day and even more so the 90avg is a better indicator of the true state of ENSO.  The ONI is also a good indicator of ENSO in that it is a measure of multiple factors and gives a value that is an avg of all evaluated factors for a 3 month time frame.  So as you can see although latest conditions in the SST dept have shifted towards the La Nina state.............:

Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Nino34Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Nino3
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Nino4
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Nino12


Current ONI and 90/30day SOI avg still aren't there.  Overall atmosphereic conditions have behaved in a more neutral to weak El Nino type state over North America rather than a La Nina, but if we cont to see SOI values in this positive state for the next month or so I would expect a warmer Sept and Oct.   
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

The question is where are the ONI and SOI 90 day avgs in Nov Dec time frame?  Once consistently for 2-3months or more in a particular zone the more likely the Ferris wheel will spin in that direction.  We shall see.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:53 am

Nice heavy batch of rain with a bit of thunder and lightning moving in now. Flood avisory was issued.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:20 am

@aiannone wrote:Nice heavy batch of rain with a bit of thunder and lightning moving in now. Flood avisory was issued.


Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.40652173913043477&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=433.20855614973266&centery=248.6096256684492&transx=33.20855614973266&transy=8

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:06 am

About 1.900 customers w/o power on LI
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:09 am

Picked up about 2.12 inches in a little less than 2 hours.
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:37 pm

Sun is trying to peak out now. With a DP of 76 and an approaching front, we could see some decent storms this afternoon provided enough daytime heating/instability.
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Post by EnyapWeather Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:14 pm

Wow. My phone says at 4 it is supposed to rain 1.24’ in one hour.
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:05 pm

Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 671130516416516Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 671130516416516Port Jefferson, LI this morning  Shocked Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 20953511
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:09 pm

60% Chance of watch issuance!
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Mcd15210
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:30 pm

Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Ww045510
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:02 pm

Major clearing inbound for NYC and LI
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Captur10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:06 pm

The storm headed this way look seriously mean.pretty solid line too with what look like some embedded super cells. Still cloudy here.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:32 pm

doc and cp get ready for some fall like weather late next week. nws disco.

"A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week.The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend."


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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:56 pm

Big bust here, .75" over the course of the whole day..oh well


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:30 pm

couple rumbles thunder and light rain. not had one good tstorm this yr.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:21 am

@algae888 wrote:doc and cp get ready for some fall like weather late next week.  nws disco.

"A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week.The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend."



Yep, that mid to late August cold evening event where we get into the 40's.That first hint of Fall coming. I'll be watching Al!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:22 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Big bust here, .75" over the course of the whole day..oh well

Bigger bust here Janet, only .27 for this whole event.
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Post by amugs Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:03 am

Hey gang,
Very busy and emotional few days for me with my oldest son leaving the nest going off to college at Penn State, College Park. Drove through the storms wow in the Poconos yesterday afternoon. Anyway, very cool end to August and we can possibly see a big storm with this set up, coastal or worse trop cyclone if this does happen.
Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations - Page 2 Img_2041

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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:40 am

Uhhhh is there any validity to this whatsoever???

http://reflectionofmind.org/nasa-confirms-earth-will-experience-15-days-darkness-november-2017/?t=top

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:16 pm

Come on rb really? A quick check proves this a hoax. Nasa never said that and it's not happening.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:51 am

Another morning in the 50's, 56.4 right now.Warm, in the 80's to Wednesday, then a cool period 70's-50's coming up.
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