NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking Hurricane Irma

+38
Dis2cruise
lglickman1
Ram4wd
emokid51783
HectorO
GreyBeard
WOLVES1
jwalsh
Disneyprincess1592
algae888
jimv45
docstox12
Joe Snow
Radz
mikeypizano
track17
Sanchize06
sabamfa
sroc4
RJB8525
nutleyblizzard
Snow88
WeatherBob
Dunnzoo
EnyapWeather
hyde345
frank 638
jake732
SoulSingMG
amugs
weatherwatchermom
Math23x7
larryrock72
aiannone
skinsfan1177
rb924119
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
42 posters

Page 1 of 35 1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:18 pm

All eyes are on Hurricane Irma as she slowly jogs west toward the Lesser Antilles. Question is does she pass through the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea (southern track likely heading toward GOM), or does she go north of there heading directly to the Southeast/Northeast U.S. coastlines. If she takes the latter track it means she can also re-curve out to sea. Essentially we're looking at 3 possible tracks.

Tracking Hurricane Irma Ecmwf_mslp_swatl_39.thumb.png.317e6495a3a30337ee3bbdb65e2f2793

Today's EURO slowed the storm down to a point that it missed the cut-off trough located over the eastern U.S. However, the WAR (West Atlantic Ridge) was able to build again and keep Irma on a west-southwest trajectory and likely show landfall near the Carolina's. I think the key trend today is the storm is slowing down which means it may mess the mid-level trough that tries to capture it and pull it toward the coast. But because there is a block, it does not make it an automatic that Irma will slide out to sea.

I do not have much to add at this point. I am refraining from providing too much analysis simply because there is no consensus with operationals or ensembles. Plus, if the trend to slow Irma down is true then we're back in a 10-15 Day time frame. So...enjoy your holiday weekend and come back Tuesday to see where we're at Smile

Here is a discussion from the NHC on Irma.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The small eye is
becoming less distinct, with both microwave and visible imagery
indicating the presence of a forming outer eyewall. Satellite
intensity estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced
to 95 kt. Some further weakening is possible over the next day or
so while Irma moves over marginally warm SSTs and continues the
eyewall replacement. After that time, the environment should be
generally conducive for some restrengthening, although forecasting
the timing of eyewall replacement cycles is next to impossible. The
biggest change from yesterday are the long-term wind shear
predictions from the global models, which shows a little more shear.
Still, the shear is not that strong, and the hurricane will be
moving over 29C SSTs. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is reduced
somewhat from the previous one, but remains near or slightly above
the model consensus.

Irma has turned a little bit to the left, now estimated to be
moving 285/11. The general synoptic situation remains well
established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move
west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.5N 37.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.7N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.5N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.0N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 51.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.7N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:20 pm

12z GEFS show a wide spread

Tracking Hurricane Irma 20526311_10155482045142367_2250796114507302258_n

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:21 pm

Irma weakened today but it looks like another eye is forming

Tracking Hurricane Irma Last48hrs.gif.8f3cc0022244f3db84422d361258c007

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:22 pm

Irmagawd.

Tracking Hurricane Irma Rb-animated

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Irmagawd.

Tracking Hurricane Irma Rb-animated
I saw her earlier, was def regaining, imagine when shes a cat 4 or 5, what she will look like dayumm.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:47 pm

Frank, that was clever ahahaha i seent what you did there Razz

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:57 pm

Is their still something behind Irma that could hit the consus?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:08 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma 21231710
GEFS

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by larryrock72 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:11 pm

Prediction for Irma Jersey Shore impacts???? 20-30 mph winds w/gusts 40mph. Precip .025-.050.....Gonna set the bar low. No Disappointments. LOL!!

larryrock72

Posts : 140
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-01-03
Age : 51
Location : Barnegat, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:13 pm

larryrock72 wrote:Prediction for Irma Jersey Shore impacts???? 20-30 mph winds w/gusts 40mph. Precip .025-.050.....Gonna set the bar low. No Disappointments. LOL!!

Forecast:

Sunny and 75, calm breeze: 50%

Tropical Impacts: 49%

World ends tomorrow: 1%

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:16 pm

5pm advisory should be interesting. She looks like she really strengthened today.
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Math23x7 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:23 pm

A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea. Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs. Without question, it has trended northeast.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:34 pm

Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

If you think about it...a rapidly strengthening hurricane tends to move slowly. Since models show Irma deepening to a major hurricane, it makes sense models slow her down and thus miss the capture with the trough. However, is the block strong enough to still keep her near the coast? We'll see what happens.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:42 pm

Good pt. Frank. There's not even a guess if the block would b strong enough? I mean a cat 4 or 5 couldn't that pretty much plow anything? And that's assuming the slowdown actually happens. Alot possibilities on table go b a long ways.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:44 pm

aiannone wrote:5pm advisory should be interesting. She looks like she really strengthened today.
she's gotta bba major again imo. When will it be close enough for recon? Once we get that data a lot could change.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:48 pm

12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

Windshield wipers affect
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:56 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma 20560310
Tracking Hurricane Irma 14564510
Little shift north with the track

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:58 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

Windshield wipers affect

That is EXACTLY the question I was beginning to ponder myself, Skins.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:01 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha

Tracking Hurricane Irma Img_1214

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

??
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by amugs Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:06 pm

Math what is the basis or tjis assumption. We have a recurve g typhoon thatbis going to be a major player here and effect he whole.downstream H5 and total atmospjere. The wsterlies are way North and from all guidance and and maps show tjis so they will have little effect on her. It will be basically the trough and ridge.  If you get a bridged block over the top if your WAR builds west and then she gets trapped basically underneath. Lots of time and Steve D talks about this major concern. Unlike Matthew last year as some have referred to this is not nearly the same set up with a trough hanging over the east.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by SoulSingMG Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha

Tracking Hurricane Irma Img_1214

Jeez. Some of these long range tracks (albeit a shot in the dark at this point) paint a very dire scenario for these parts of they were to come to fruition.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:26 pm

Well that was short lived weakening now almost cat 4. Cmc ensembles wow yikes a lot of heavy hitters even up here. Are euro out yet?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 35 1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum