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Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:33 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:I would have to work in the hurricane if we get one next week
First it wouldnt be until the following week or very late next weekend and second bull, if this came in like it shows no one would be outside period, if u were you would be a moron (not calling you one just to be clear, your boss would be the moron) and prolly airborn.

I'm a Cop

I don't have a choice Shocked
My bad didn't realize that.  Come save me please lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:27 am

Is Euro running now?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:57 am

The run to run differences in the models at H5 are still laughable right now

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:05 am

Hi I thought I was only one up I looked at tidbit runs..what a difference between the 2 and to my untrained eye...euro a lot slower right
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:27 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi I thought I was only one up I looked at tidbit runs..what a difference between the 2 and to my untrained eye...euro a lot slower right

Yup. And I just woke up, gotta be at work for 5 :/ lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:32 am

Oh boy that's an early call....I just can't sleep...roaming the house...I guess you are getting ready for work...but why such differences?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:15 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy that's an early call....I just can't sleep...roaming the house...I guess you are getting ready for work...but why such differences?

That's not much better lol and just the increasing amplitude, with what's going on in the Northern Hemisphere, it's just mayhem for the modeling. Then you add in the different schemes within the separate models and it just compounds the complexity.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:40 am

Euro has a landfall in SC. And we are all over the place as rb stated. Only thing I see is the fact that a us landfall seems pretty likely. Cmc even though did recurve I think will come west and eventually come in line with gfs. Still sticking to ur guns rb?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:51 am

OMG 06z gfs rides nj to landfall northern NJ cat 4 or so very similar to 18z. Starting to wonder if gfs isn't possibly maybe right. Euro came North with a landfall in NC. Cmc was a close call. All shown around Sunday. What a week this is gonna be.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:54 am

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Gfs_ms11
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Img_2710
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:02 am

crazy just nuts. 3 pulverizing runs and now euro on to landfall too. Don't pay attention to the light winds on land for some reason the model of that map does not read the winds over land. 850mb wind map does I'll post it when I'm up it's crazy.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:04 am

Been consistent with next Sunday now too.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:25 am

Irma looking strong this morning eye is reopening.
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Post by Guest Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:33 am

I know we're not supposed to look at operationals this far out, but mother of God this looks like something out of a disaster movie.

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Gfs_ms10

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:47 am

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Imagep10
6z GEFS looks very ominous!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:57 am

H5 capture and a slingshot at us.Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Nvg10_11
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Post by aiannone Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:03 am

Looks like we have a battle between the southern Euro and the northern GFS. Really comes down to timing. They both agree upon Irma being a very strong system, so with either scenario, this will be  a major issue for someone along the EC. While yes it can still go OTS, it is looking a lot less likely at this point.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:06 am

It all comes down to that recurving typhoon SANVU and where he sets up shop in the GOA and what downstream effects he will have on the pattern. 
These runs are terrifying indeed but the next few days well see what is what.
IF the GooFuS pulls this off then it won't be so Goofy after all and we make America Great once again!!

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Post by aiannone Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:09 am

Let's just remember who picked out Harvey's past first.... lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:13 am

Euro isn't that far south and if it moved at all north after Carolina landfall I could see effects like Irene making it all way up maybe even a cat 1
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:15 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:H5 capture and a slingshot at us.Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 5 Nvg10_11
so really euro is the southernmost outlier right now as gfs cmc navgem jma all have it head north.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:20 am

@amugs wrote:It all comes down to that recurving typhoon SANVU and where he sets up shop in the GOA and what downstream effects he will have on the pattern. 
These runs are terrifying indeed but the next few days well see what is what.
IF the GooFuS pulls this off then it won't be so Goofy after all and we make America Great once again!!

I was reading about Sanvu this morning at about 4 am..was going to ask about that...thank you for mentioning it..
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:23 am

so Euro is the only one not showing a tri-state complete hit?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:24 am

Wow 50% chance already of major covers entire east coast. I don't care what some might think I do not think this one is going ots. And no that's not wishcasting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903944867822362624/photo/1


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:25 am

@RJB8525 wrote:so Euro is the only one not showing a tri-state complete hit?
no cmc was a miss but very close. But my PT was it's the southernmost.
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