Tracking Hurricane Irma

Latest GFS at 06z is a South Florida special. The trend continues south and west......

Good morning.  As of the 5am advisory the min pressure was listed at 961mb; however, current recon mission has measured Irmas minimum pressure at 948mb indicating that she is likely strengthening.  



The sat loop imagery looks like she has undergone an eye wall replacement cycle over night and looks quite healthy this morning.  Models have shifted the track south and west taking her through the Bahamas and near the Northern coast of Cuba in about4-6 days.  Modeling conts to trend towards stronger ridging into the SW Atlantic which is ultimately what steers her in this direction; however, there is still much uncertainty esp beyond this time frame.  

Check out this sat loop. http://col.st/Okdge This site is really cool. You can play with it and create your own sat loops using different overlays etc.  R click to zoom in and out.  

For those wondering, and there will be a video coming out in a little while to supplement, but as of now I still like my initial guess as to where this system ends up - in the eastern Gulf somewhere between the west coast of Florida and Louisiana. However, I am aware of the NAM and Euro ideas, so I will be keeping a watchful eye on what they do or don't do in future runs.

8am update: As expected a bump up in he winds.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

sroc4 wrote:8am update:  As expected a bump up in he winds.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

That's an increase of 14mb in strength SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

sroc4 wrote:8am update:  As expected a bump up in he winds.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

RI for sure, and looks amazing on satellite imagery currently

Yeah crazy. Def RI. Intensity is always the hardest thing for models to predict. It will be interesting if we get additional intensification today. Models had her fairly stable until reaching the Leeward Islands.

Still 3days until recurving Pac Typhoon is integrated into the GOA trough.  I'm not buying into anything just yet.  One thing I will say, although not 100% dead, the idea of the trough split where one piece of the trough lifts out and the other backs into the mid west depicted by the GFS a few days ago seems very unlikely at this time.  It is this scenario that created the alley way for Irma to come directly up the coast and or even retrograde via capture to give the Mid Atlantic and southern NE a direct landfall.  Again nothing is off the table but at least this worst case scenario for our coverage area seems unlikely given the last few days of model trending.

She's a beaut:

TSF winds about 140 miles from center, Irma looks to be growing in size as well...

Hey Mike - your boy DT saying escape is closing real fast.


Why cause look at what his favorite EPS models know suggests. Windshield wiper effect


Sroc our boy SANVU coming into play know - time will tell his downstream effetcs and how deep the trough gets, PNA spike, over teh top block etc - also Isotherm pointed out two possible tracks examining the upper air pattern - one a direct hit into Fla and then a turn N int op the SE and dyes off but can bring flooding rains up through our area, 2 - a turn N and hit OBX and cintinue N hugging the coast. He remains on this course as he has since he started tracking.

This is the track he likes in similarity - history loves to repeat itself and many experienced mets like Jim Witt always point this out!

Video upload in progress......

Talk about complexity

Hybrid forecast of models

Advisory 21 - wind speed and movement the same, pressure down 3 mb

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

New video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMkpaRUFEUEdwblk

Keep in mind that the increase in SST anomalies along the bigger islands doesn't necessarily help my track idea (as a guiding low-level pressure boundary for the lower-level circulation to follow), but what it DOES do is mean that much more latent heat to feed into the ridge that I think will continue to trend stronger given the factors outlined in the video. However, as Irma would get into the Gulf, those cooler anomalies combined with the anomalous cool landmass juxtaposed with the warmer anomalies further east would likely allow Irma to remain very strong or maybe even intensify some **if the circulation remains north of the mountainous islands of Cuba/D.R.**, which I think makes the most sense given how these systems like to avoid contact with surface of higher friction (remember how Matthew(?) danced through the channel between those islands last year, I think it was). Why? Enhanced low-level convergence due to the temperature anomalies in the lower-levels.

Enjoy!!

jwalsh wrote:Advisory 21 - wind speed and movement the same, pressure down 3 mb

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

Irma is likely to keep intensifying. Very scary storm for whoever is in its path. I think we may begin seeing consensus with models beginning tomorrow. Ensembles starting to come around to a Florida to North Carolina type of landfall. Out to sea doesn't seem likely

This is looking more and more like a Florida landfall

Irma slightly north at hour 90.

Looks like Irma is going north of Cuba this run. Not sure if its going north from there or will enter the gulf.

Also more intense, at least compared to the 06z. It's 907mb at 06z Saturday while the previous run had it at 931mb

Irma further north and stronger 907mb between fl and Cuba yikes. And that's not full res. Prolly below 900mb.

Now we have Jose behind Irma wonder how that might effect.

The GFS has the trough moving out a lot faster today than it did for yesterday's 12z.

Yesterday's 12z for 9/9 0z


Today's 12z for 9/9 0z

Hr 132 899mb in keys yikes!! Are these intensities for real. I mean that has b winds well over 150 mph. Very worried if this goes up fl coast bout my in-laws new house which is being built. It would be blown apart.

Good lord 890mb up eastern side fl. Destroyed...

Miami gets destroyed on this run