NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking Hurricane Irma

+38
Dis2cruise
lglickman1
Ram4wd
emokid51783
HectorO
GreyBeard
WOLVES1
jwalsh
Disneyprincess1592
algae888
jimv45
docstox12
Joe Snow
Radz
mikeypizano
track17
Sanchize06
sabamfa
sroc4
RJB8525
nutleyblizzard
Snow88
WeatherBob
Dunnzoo
EnyapWeather
hyde345
frank 638
jake732
SoulSingMG
amugs
weatherwatchermom
Math23x7
larryrock72
aiannone
skinsfan1177
rb924119
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
42 posters

Page 3 of 35 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 19 ... 35  Next

Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:16 pm

hyde345 wrote:It could but it's still 10 days or so out. There are many variables at play and each model run could still be quite different from the next. 00z could show something totally different. This is just entertainment right now.

lets hope!! in the mean time..a little drunken drunken might help!

weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Join date : 2014-11-25

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by hyde345 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:18 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
hyde345 wrote:It could but it's still 10 days or so out. There are many variables at play and each model run could still be quite different from the next. 00z could show something totally different. This is just entertainment right now.

lets hope!! in the mean time..a little drunken drunken  might help!

You got that right Smile

hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:18 pm

This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:22 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"
was this a reliable person? I have to somewhat agree. Until we get into range of the euro landfall in or not if shows same then that's big ol red flag
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by hyde345 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

Nobody is saying its not a possible solution but no matter how consistent it has been it's still well over a week away and other scenarios are just as possible. We can't put too much emphasis on every operational model run this far out.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:26 pm

hyde345 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

I know that

Nobody is saying its not a possible solution but no matter how consistent it has been it's still well over a week away and other scenarios are just as possible. We can't put too much emphasis on every operational model run this far out.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:28 pm

Scary very dangerous situation if it were to happen. Even ur wind man would blow away.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:36 pm

Does anyone have a map that shows the max winds at lsnfall on that run? I imagine quite high.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:43 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

This is why we have this board.. no real hyping or long range forecasting claiming certainty.. (except jman! jk Very Happy )
We need to all take a breath and wait, model hugging will drive you crazy... me, I'm on my last day down the shore and am enjoying multiple adult beverages! drunken Have a good weekend everyone!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:11 pm

I'm not saying any one solution is gonna happen. It's actually kinda drive me batty already not being able to know lol. Oy how to make it 7 to 14 days depending on speed. Lucky I'm busy all weekend and away till wed.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by WeatherBob Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:43 pm

If that GFS model is correct, that is a $500B storm with tragedy beyond comprehension! I don't think anyone should wish or desire a storm like that hitting any part of the country. This is the last I will say on this matter!
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by amugs Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:45 pm

Again the models op.and ens will go back and forth, intetesting and fun to watch BUT the PAC recurving typhoon sets this all up fir either a destructive scenerio for our area or not as bad. BUT one thing that was explained to me by a pro met is that the models have climo built into their algorithms. 
Isotherm stated and Inwill say this again he sees a SE Coast strike and then have to see where the trough and WAR set up from there.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by amugs Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:48 pm

WeatherBob wrote:If that GFS model is correct, that is a $500B storm with tragedy beyond comprehension! I don't think anyone should wish or desire a storm like that hitting any part of the country. This is the last I will say on this matter!
Bob agreed maybe 1 trillion man sometimes teeters on such with these catastrophic natural events. We have seen such many times in the past and we recoup and move on or not sad to say.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:00 pm

Did u all see 18z gefs! Wow fl isn't at all in play there. No idea where this will make landfall but like many sites I'm reading the ots idea is not looking likely atm.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 pm

GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:46 pm

Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:49 pm

942mb at 00z vs 958mb at 18z, and further north, this may make similar trip too early in run to tell...
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.
I was just going to point that out. We may very well see a sub 900 mb reading during this run.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:53 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.
I was just going to point that out. We may very well see a sub 900 mb reading during this run.
Hr 84 hi-res 934mb, sheesh thats not too far away. It's faster too by a bit.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:05 am

Southwest at 114 from 18z but very strong
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:07 am

929mb at hr 126 using hi-res FYI.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:11 am

Cat 5 at 126 hours on the GFS

Sub 930
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:12 am

If this stays on trajectory of a curve I see it eying similar area but maybe in NJ, just a guess.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:16 am

You can clearly see at hour 144 with the eastern trough and the pressing ridge, Irma really has no choice but to make an east coast landfall. The question is where?
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

This run is going to be huge. Buckle up boys and girls

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

OMG sub 920 heading to the coast at 162 hours
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:You can clearly see at hour 144 with the eastern trough and the pressing ridge, Irma really has no choice but to make an east coast landfall. The question is where?
Thats pretty much what I am hearing all over that Irma does not appear to have an escape route and has a pretty high chance at making landfall on the US (especially east coast)
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 3 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 35 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 19 ... 35  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum