Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:16 pm

hyde345 wrote:It could but it's still 10 days or so out. There are many variables at play and each model run could still be quite different from the next. 00z could show something totally different. This is just entertainment right now.

lets hope!! in the mean time..a little drunken

might help!

by **hyde345** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:18 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
hyde345 wrote:It could but it's still 10 days or so out. There are many variables at play and each model run could still be quite different from the next. 00z could show something totally different. This is just entertainment right now.

lets hope!! in the mean time..a little might help!

You got that right Smile

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:18 pm

This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:22 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

was this a reliable person? I have to somewhat agree. Until we get into range of the euro landfall in or not if shows same then that's big ol red flag

by **hyde345** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

Nobody is saying its not a possible solution but no matter how consistent it has been it's still well over a week away and other scenarios are just as possible. We can't put too much emphasis on every operational model run this far out.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:26 pm

hyde345 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

I know that

Nobody is saying its not a possible solution but no matter how consistent it has been it's still well over a week away and other scenarios are just as possible. We can't put too much emphasis on every operational model run this far out.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:28 pm

Scary very dangerous situation if it were to happen. Even ur wind man would blow away.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:36 pm

Does anyone have a map that shows the max winds at lsnfall on that run? I imagine quite high.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:43 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is what someone said on another board.

"Gfs has been locked into a DC to Red Sox Suck landfall and is very consistent with handling the Atlantic blocking and ridging. not sure why people keep shitting on this threat. I can't scream any louder how real it is"

This is why we have this board.. no real hyping or long range forecasting claiming certainty.. (except jman! jk Very Happy

)
We need to all take a breath and wait, model hugging will drive you crazy... me, I'm on my last day down the shore and am enjoying multiple adult beverages! drunken

Have a good weekend everyone!

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:11 pm

I'm not saying any one solution is gonna happen. It's actually kinda drive me batty already not being able to know lol. Oy how to make it 7 to 14 days depending on speed. Lucky I'm busy all weekend and away till wed.

by **WeatherBob** Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:43 pm

If that GFS model is correct, that is a $500B storm with tragedy beyond comprehension! I don't think anyone should wish or desire a storm like that hitting any part of the country. This is the last I will say on this matter!

by **amugs** Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:45 pm

Again the models op.and ens will go back and forth, intetesting and fun to watch BUT the PAC recurving typhoon sets this all up fir either a destructive scenerio for our area or not as bad. BUT one thing that was explained to me by a pro met is that the models have climo built into their algorithms.
Isotherm stated and Inwill say this again he sees a SE Coast strike and then have to see where the trough and WAR set up from there.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:48 pm

WeatherBob wrote:If that GFS model is correct, that is a $500B storm with tragedy beyond comprehension! I don't think anyone should wish or desire a storm like that hitting any part of the country. This is the last I will say on this matter!

Bob agreed maybe 1 trillion man sometimes teeters on such with these catastrophic natural events. We have seen such many times in the past and we recoup and move on or not sad to say.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:00 pm

Did u all see 18z gefs! Wow fl isn't at all in play there. No idea where this will make landfall but like many sites I'm reading the ots idea is not looking likely atm.

by **Snow88** Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 pm

GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:46 pm

Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z

At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:49 pm

942mb at 00z vs 958mb at 18z, and further north, this may make similar trip too early in run to tell...

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.

I was just going to point that out. We may very well see a sub 900 mb reading during this run.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:53 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:GFS at 42 hours is slightly more north and stronger than 18z
At hr 60 its 20mb stronger than the 18z wow.
I was just going to point that out. We may very well see a sub 900 mb reading during this run.

Hr 84 hi-res 934mb, sheesh thats not too far away. It's faster too by a bit.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:05 am

Southwest at 114 from 18z but very strong

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:07 am

929mb at hr 126 using hi-res FYI.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:11 am

Cat 5 at 126 hours on the GFS

Sub 930

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:12 am

If this stays on trajectory of a curve I see it eying similar area but maybe in NJ, just a guess.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:16 am

You can clearly see at hour 144 with the eastern trough and the pressing ridge, Irma really has no choice but to make an east coast landfall. The question is where?

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

This run is going to be huge. Buckle up boys and girls

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

OMG sub 920 heading to the coast at 162 hours

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:17 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:You can clearly see at hour 144 with the eastern trough and the pressing ridge, Irma really has no choice but to make an east coast landfall. The question is where?

Thats pretty much what I am hearing all over that Irma does not appear to have an escape route and has a pretty high chance at making landfall on the US (especially east coast)

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