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Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 am

@rb924119 wrote:Ladies and gents, with the overnight runs, we're back in the game :/

There's a lot of 6z GEFS members that take this storm to Hatteras or even east of there on this run

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:30 am

6z GEFS, interesting

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 Weathe10[/url]

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:41 am

CMC Ensembles

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 11L_geps_00z

Hurricane Models

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 11L_tracks_latest

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:52 am

GOOD MORNING!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 Rgb-animated

Well the trough digging in is strong and vigorous.  The next 48hrs will be telling.  Normally you wouldn't be using the NAM as a model to predict the fate of a tropical system but in this case I think we can.  One of the most important players, if not the most important regarding where the turn occurs, in the entire equation has been the mean trough that is digging into the central plains and Ohio River alley.  
This link is an amazing sat loop to look at:

=8&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider]http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=11312&y=5480&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=8&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 Wv-animated

It is an anomalously strong trough in response to the recurving typhoon.  In past experiences the NAM has done exceptionally well with handling of such strong dynamic set ups for the east coast so I am using it in conjunction with the rest of the global models to see the true dynamics of the trough and ridging features.  It is def the northern and eastern most track soln, but may be leading the way here for additional trends east based on the below H5 set up.  I would argue that extrapolated out Irma would Cont N fromhere; then maybe even a tad NNE before interacting with the trailing s/w; then being captured before being pulled back NNW into the coast on this run.

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 35 Namconus_z500_vort_us_53

Of course the wiper effect could come into play and a shift back west is certainly possible, but it appears clear to me based off model trends, and current observations it the eastern half of Fla and points N and E of that that we need to focus on.  And yes we are def still in play up here from some kind of effects from Irma.  Not sure what that ceiling is regarding effects, but again within the next 48hrs we will know ALOT.

Hey....WE TRACK!!!
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:22 am


It is an anomalously strong trough in response to the recurving typhoon. In past experiences the NAM has done exceptionally well with handling of such strong dynamic set ups for the east coast so I am using it in conjunction with the rest of the global models to see the true dynamics of the trough and ridging features. It is def the northern and eastern most track soln, but may be leading the way here for additional trends east based on the below H5 set up. I would argue that extrapolated out Irma would Cont N fromhere; then maybe even a tad NNE before interacting with the trailing s/w; then being captured before being pulled back NNW into the coast on this run.

Excellent points my man. I have been harping on this for the last 7 days plus that Typhoon Sanvu was going to have major downstream effects AND the anomalous set up in Western Europe with a big trough over there and a Scandinavian Block or East Based NAO set up that will back up the North Atlantic. I was just going to type the same up but was stuck in 40 minutes of traffic the 1st day of school ugghhhhh!! He is going to pump that PNA nd sharpen the trough.

Isotherm has not wavered on his Carolina's hit and from there we wait the next day or two to see what she does from there. Donna in the making here? Top analog and has always been even with JB and JD.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:28 am

Wow talk about some model changes no one mentioned the cmc basically went ots?! It hits cape cod. I think that comes west and ya we def are back in the game. And I was ready to throw in the towel lol. Looks like Irma just passed directly over an island man it's go b in shambles down there. I agree if fl has concern up this early so should Carolinas.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:33 am


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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