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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by billg315 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:46 pm

I always lean toward eastern-most solutions with east coast tropical systems unless there is a strong blocking feature working against it. I therefore would not be shocked looking at model trends and how the eye has moved the last several hours if this actually stays just east of Florida and strikes the Carolinas.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:57 pm

0z hurricane models shifted east
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Just saw someone post this on FB.  

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

That's what I was trying to say 2 hours ago on page 4 of this thread. You put it more eloquently though. The more east the better chance it gets further north. Very Happy

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Just saw someone post this on FB.  

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

That's what I was trying to say 2 hours ago on page 4 of this thread. You put it more eloquently though. The more east the better chance it gets further north. Very Happy
lol ur going down with the ship huh. Me too but I'm skeptical as I trust in frank sroc rb etc. It's not impossible though.
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:07 pm

Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here study rabbit j

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here  study rabbit j
you mean Ray? He was saying the gulf and I haven't seen him in a bit. Weather as u know is the only thing your allowed to get wrong and if your a pro you still get paid Smile Ray don't take it hard but I would like to hear ur thoughts since gom looks very unlikely.
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here  study rabbit j
you mean Ray? He was saying the gulf and I haven't seen him in a bit. Weather as u know is the only thing your allowed to get wrong and if your a pro you still get paid Smile Ray don't take it hard but I would like to hear ur thoughts since gom looks very unlikely.

Yes I mean Ray but I'm just razzing him.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:45 pm

Last couple frames seem to show Irma moving due west instead of NW. Tomorrow's model runs should be very interesting for Florida and SE coast states.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Avn-animated

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Last couple frames seem to show Irma moving due west instead of NW. Tomorrow's model runs should be very interesting for Florida and SE coast states.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Avn-animated

She actually looks like she is weakening some on the western eyewall. Ive been comparing the 00z NAM to other guidance and the biggest difference is how strong the trough is. I honestky think it is going to end up correct and we miss a fla landfall. Icould be wrong and would really lik it if say the euro would come around to that but the trough looks really potent on sat imagery.

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:57 pm

Well the trough on the NAM is very strong, tries pulling Irma up the coast, but don't know if it would be successful after hr 84

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Namconus_z500a_us_52

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:03 pm

37 hrs as a cat 5 beating the past record of 19 hrs. If this isn't correct feel free but I read this on another board.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:08 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Last couple frames seem to show Irma moving due west instead of NW. Tomorrow's model runs should be very interesting for Florida and SE coast states.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Avn-animated

She actually looks like she is weakening some on the western eyewall.  Ive been comparing the 00z NAM to other guidance and the biggest difference is how strong the trough is.  I honestky think it is going to end up correct and we miss a fla landfall.  Icould be wrong and would really lik it if say the euro would come around to that but the trough looks really potent on sat imagery.
so you feel it would go up the coast instead with the trough? Is this rain associated with the trough? So if she got pulled north what would need to happen to just graze or hit Hatteras and actually make a landfall on li as a hurricane or ts. Or Dare I say if there's even a possibility it stayed a major or post tropical major. If the trough pulled her up and then the block did not move in so quick would that allow for my coastal thought?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:09 pm

Also yeah it almost looks like something is eroding part of the western side. I doubt it's going to cripple but it is interesting.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:47 pm

Irma is west and south.  I know this should be in regular tropics thread but Jose is notably further south and threatens the same leewards in roughly 48-72 hrs!  Thats terrible.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:53 pm

Trough on the GFS stronger, something to watch the next couple of days if it keeps trending stronger

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:06 am

Jose and Irma are literally parallelling each other north.  Jose is a mouse compared.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:07 am

12z

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_20

18z

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_19

0z

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_18

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:08 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:Trough on the GFS stronger, something to watch the next couple of days if it keeps trending stronger
Yep. Looks like its pulling it up the coast further north a bit.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:09 am

Can see how the trough hangs in longer, keeps the ridging from building over the Atlantic and looks as a result Irma comes much more north into the Carolinas instead of being forced northwest

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:13 am

At 138 its now much further east inland at NC VA border, if these trends keep we may have this take a ride up and actually pose a threat up here, we wait and watch, going to be a long while still.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:23 am

CMC has the trough hanging around a bit longer too, takes it into the SC/NC border.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_us_20

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:24 am

Like I said before folks... The models this summer have overestimated the strength of the Atlantic ridge. We need to watch for trends in the next couple of days for a stronger trough weaker ridge.Things can get interesting.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:15 am

UMMMMMM GEFS Shocked

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 6 Img_6212
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Post by algae888 Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:58 am

Great disco from nhc on projected path of irma showing all model solutions...

The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:12 am

A point here is how many years has the hurricane season been quiet? Unfortunately, we are due and for some in deep doo
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