Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Miami beach mandatory evacuations start tom

I always lean toward eastern-most solutions with east coast tropical systems unless there is a strong blocking feature working against it. I therefore would not be shocked looking at model trends and how the eye has moved the last several hours if this actually stays just east of Florida and strikes the Carolinas.

0z hurricane models shifted east

sroc4 wrote:Just saw someone post this on FB.  

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

That's what I was trying to say 2 hours ago on page 4 of this thread. You put it more eloquently though. The more east the better chance it gets further north.

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Just saw someone post this on FB.  

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

That's what I was trying to say 2 hours ago on page 4 of this thread. You put it more eloquently though. The more east the better chance it gets further north.

lol ur going down with the ship huh. Me too but I'm skeptical as I trust in frank sroc rb etc. It's not impossible though.

Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here j

syosnow94 wrote:Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here   j

you mean Ray? He was saying the gulf and I haven't seen him in a bit. Weather as u know is the only thing your allowed to get wrong and if your a pro you still get paid Ray don't take it hard but I would like to hear ur thoughts since gom looks very unlikely.

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Rob hasn't been right yet since he's been on here   j

you mean Ray? He was saying the gulf and I haven't seen him in a bit. Weather as u know is the only thing your allowed to get wrong and if your a pro you still get paid Ray don't take it hard but I would like to hear ur thoughts since gom looks very unlikely.

Yes I mean Ray but I'm just razzing him.

Last couple frames seem to show Irma moving due west instead of NW. Tomorrow's model runs should be very interesting for Florida and SE coast states.

Well the trough on the NAM is very strong, tries pulling Irma up the coast, but don't know if it would be successful after hr 84

37 hrs as a cat 5 beating the past record of 19 hrs. If this isn't correct feel free but I read this on another board.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Last couple frames seem to show Irma moving due west instead of NW. Tomorrow's model runs should be very interesting for Florida and SE coast states.

She actually looks like she is weakening some on the western eyewall.  Ive been comparing the 00z NAM to other guidance and the biggest difference is how strong the trough is.  I honestky think it is going to end up correct and we miss a fla landfall.  Icould be wrong and would really lik it if say the euro would come around to that but the trough looks really potent on sat imagery.

so you feel it would go up the coast instead with the trough? Is this rain associated with the trough? So if she got pulled north what would need to happen to just graze or hit Hatteras and actually make a landfall on li as a hurricane or ts. Or Dare I say if there's even a possibility it stayed a major or post tropical major. If the trough pulled her up and then the block did not move in so quick would that allow for my coastal thought?

Also yeah it almost looks like something is eroding part of the western side. I doubt it's going to cripple but it is interesting.

Irma is west and south.  I know this should be in regular tropics thread but Jose is notably further south and threatens the same leewards in roughly 48-72 hrs!  Thats terrible.

Trough on the GFS stronger, something to watch the next couple of days if it keeps trending stronger

Jose and Irma are literally parallelling each other north.  Jose is a mouse compared.

12z



18z



0z

Sanchize06 wrote:Trough on the GFS stronger, something to watch the next couple of days if it keeps trending stronger

Yep. Looks like its pulling it up the coast further north a bit.

Can see how the trough hangs in longer, keeps the ridging from building over the Atlantic and looks as a result Irma comes much more north into the Carolinas instead of being forced northwest

At 138 its now much further east inland at NC VA border, if these trends keep we may have this take a ride up and actually pose a threat up here, we wait and watch, going to be a long while still.

CMC has the trough hanging around a bit longer too, takes it into the SC/NC border.

Like I said before folks... The models this summer have overestimated the strength of the Atlantic ridge. We need to watch for trends in the next couple of days for a stronger trough weaker ridge.Things can get interesting.

Great disco from nhc on projected path of irma showing all model solutions...

The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

A point here is how many years has the hurricane season been quiet? Unfortunately, we are due and for some in deep doo