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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:58 am

GFS at hr 84 about to show a trough split. Irma likely turns N from here then sling shots into Ga/Sc somewhere

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:08 pm

Bingo!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:20 pm

Yes scott and she ends up near Chicago LOL this is one devastating storm probably billions in damage when all is said and done
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:28 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Bingo!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

Look at little jose where does he go
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:53 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Bingo!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

Look at little jose where does he go

Poor little Jose meanders harmlessly out in the mid Atlantic.  Looks like he tries to make a friend toward the end


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:04 pm

The Canadian actually landfalls in NC then heads toward DC. We get heavy rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:06 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Gem_mslp_pcpn_eus_fh78-162.thumb.gif.70ff86e657b0bf73fe59bb57f85aa022

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:14 pm

According to this the latest recon measured a 170kt or 195mph surface wind speed. Incredible:

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Recon_AF305-1311A-IRMA_timeseries

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 pm

@sroc4 wrote:According to this the latest recon measured a 170kt or 195mph surface wind speed.  Incredible:

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Recon_AF305-1311A-IRMA_timeseries

Will this make Irma the strongest on record?
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:22 pm

12Z GEFS back west...

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 pm

12z UKMET track...overall track is similar to GFS except GFS does not touch Cuba

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 DJDd4OgW4AIK7Qe

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 pm

GEFS

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh78-138.thumb.gif.7d8c3095fd661d84f0c1b4b51bd7673b

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 pm

Miami / SE FL better be on alert at this point. GEFS clustered over that area

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 pm

St. Marten:

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 DJDYSwMWAAA4MVO

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 DJDYSwOW4AMfBE2

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 DJDYSwLXcAE6i5v




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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:51 pm

euro...she is a rollin

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:55 pm

So assuming the c pulls it's track and has it a much weaker I would suspect she would actually b stronger if made up this way. Still long ways to go...how many days we said that now?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:01 pm

out through 30 so far euro the same

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:02 pm

If this rides the coast what does this look like for central Florida?

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:12 pm

Through 48 euro almost identicle to 12z GFS in position of irma and H 5 set up

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:22 pm

Miami seems like ground zero today

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:29 pm

This is really not looking good for my fam down in West Palm beach FL
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:29 pm

EURO just showed the worst case scenario for Miami and all of eastern FL

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:30 pm

Then it re-emerges into the ocean for SC landfall

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 59b03de932dd3_irma12z9-6H12699999.thumb.PNG.1b3213fef303d44aadc7de8956892dd1

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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:31 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Miami seems like ground zero today
and then Hilton head island. double landfall.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:31 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_52
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_53
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_54
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_55
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_56
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_57
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_58
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 2 Ecmwf_59

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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