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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:40 pm

Oh wow, the trough is much stronger, weaker ridge, looks like the trough is trying to bring her up the coast here

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:43 pm

Uh oh

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 11 Namconus_z500a_us_46

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:43 pm

Seriously OMG totally misses FL, it could come up here, okay so we are now in another snag in the models damnit lol, this is great for FL if true but not for someone else!
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Post by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:43 pm

And it looks like she's gonna strengthen after making the turn.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:44 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Uh oh

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 11 Namconus_z500a_us_46
I swear if this pulls a 180 to the GFS 10 days ago wow.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:44 pm

It's captured now, coming up NNE toward Hatteras

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:45 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 11 Namconus_z500a_us_50

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Post by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:48 pm

Apologies for the banter, but imagine the amount of grief weathermen will get if this things ends up missing Fla. completely.

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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:49 pm

So wait I'm confused is Florida getting clobbered or not

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:49 pm

Guys hr 81 its headded NNW, I think if extrapolated out this would have near direct impoacts on the area wow!  They cannot pass this over.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:50 pm

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:So wait I'm confused is Florida getting clobbered or not
This is a model that has had a decent track record in recent years, its not a end all could be a hiccup, but it def throws a wrench in the mix.
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Post by EnyapWeather Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:52 pm

Shows a 950 just south of Delaware. Looks to becoming right towards NJ.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:54 pm

oly crap this would be a direct landfall in NJ or NYC if extrapolated unless it changes its due north trek.  Floyd anyone but 10x stronger, or Irene.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 11 Nam_ms11
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:55 pm

NAM FTW!!! Thumbs up
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:55 pm

One of the pros on here Frank sroc rb? What do you think, this is wayyy diff than we have seen, a blip or are we back in the game, and from the looks of this run it would be majorly bad news.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:56 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!! Thumbs up
What do ya think? possible?  a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other models
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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:56 pm

Jman, I may be evacing to jersey just to be safe, this run is making me feel like I shouldn't but I don't wanna get stuck.

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Post by pdubz Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:57 pm

and now tonight's model runs will be interesting Question
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:58 pm

THE H5 PATTERN has totally changed from the Rockies on East the ULL over the NE is ridiculous strong and we have a Fujiwara effect with Jose puling on her tail. This would be a major win for Fla but absolutely catastrophic for the Del, NJ, NY region again. Extrapolated out its a NJ Shore Hit or Directly into.......................NYC!!

Weathermen would be absolutely blistered by this if this were to occur!

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:59 pm

GFS 10 days ago had this 0Z suite will be huggggeee tonight.

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Post by pdubz Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:00 pm

What are the times of the models again?
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:01 pm

Please tell me this isn't "that blizzard" all over again.

I blame the solar storm for model mayhem.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:01 pm

omg.. affraid affraid .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:01 pm

amugs wrote:GFS 10 days ago had this 0Z suite will be huggggeee tonight.
Mugs the MC for the forum! I see the drastic changes wow, this isnt a small change from 18z its huge, NYC would be in eye or on east side would be terrible, i cannot imagine if we are go be prepare for this in 3-4 days versus FL in 2. wow....
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!! Thumbs up
What do ya think? possible?  a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other models
Sure its possible. New data has been ingested in the models for the 0z suite. My gut tells me its just an off run, but it can't be discounted entirely either. Next up is GFS. If it shows something similar, this place will explode.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:02 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. affraid  affraid .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...

Not a model lol NAM
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. affraid  affraid .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
no actually the NAM did really well with a bunch of snow events, all here now are using the SR models to some extent, granted 84 hr NAM is not in good range but its concerning.
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