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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by GreyBeard Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:22 pm

My sister who is in Boca, just text me that there is a mandatory curfew starting at 3 PM,also said all the stores were closed.

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Post by jwalsh Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:56 pm

...IRMA LINGERING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:00 pm

Crazy video:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10211815999173532&id=1176352023&fref=gc&dti=625060274303169&hc_location=ufi

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:10 pm

North she goes

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 59b42ccd73aa3_irma-ir22.gif.f69f09e6e8f83ecfd11d16c5eaf282bd

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Post by GreyBeard Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:North she goes

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 59b42ccd73aa3_irma-ir22.gif.f69f09e6e8f83ecfd11d16c5eaf282bd

2:00 reading from NHC says she is moving WEST at 9mph. What do you see that they don't?

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Post by gigs68 Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Crazy video:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10211815999173532&id=1176352023&fref=gc&dti=625060274303169&hc_location=ufi

So can someone explain where the Ocean is. Figured it would be flooded
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:50 pm

Technically speaking it has been going 290 degrees for a long time. Just see where it was 24 hrs ago. I would say it has been going WNW the whole time with wobbles to the West and wobbles to the north.
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:59 pm

Well, if the 2 pm pressure was correct at 2PM and I am assuming the 3 PM pressure was from a plane since it was going into the storm per a previous report, that is 941 to 938. That is technically a rapid pressure drop. Winds always respond after the pressure drop occurs.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:08 pm

She is going back into beast mode N Wobbles and some west but more N - next 6-12 hours we wait and see - 87-90* waters and little to no shear = POWDERKEG!

Charlie is a great example of how RI can happen in a short span of time

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:36 pm

@gigs68 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Crazy video:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10211815999173532&id=1176352023&fref=gc&dti=625060274303169&hc_location=ufi

So can someone explain where the Ocean is.  Figured it would be flooded

This is likely in the wake of the storm. Low tide to go along with the storm surge pulling all the water out ahead of it. Thats my guess anyway.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:39 pm

Pressure back down to 939mb from 941 with first pass of latest recon.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:57 pm

Little to no shear and boiling water = KABOOM and RI cat 4 to border line 5 my call

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 Img_2075
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 Img_2076

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:59 pm

@amugs wrote:Little to no shear and boiling water = KABOOM and RI cat 4 to border line 5 my call

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 Img_2075
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 Img_2076

Cant argue with you Al

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:05 pm

Sh*t that puts landfall at my brother's as a cat 4

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:28 pm

Recon down to 935!! Only a matter of time until the wind speeds recover

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 18 Recon_NOAA2-2711A-IRMA


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:34 pm

Scott hate to say this but she is crawling from SI (GOES) If she doesn't pick up in the next few hours with nothing and I mean nothing g to cap her ceiling JB call for a 5 will verify easily.
Hope everyone batting down the hatches is safe and will have little issues with their own personar safety and their love ones.

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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:40 pm

JB and Dr. Maue say we have a 20 -25 mb drop by the later morning/noon time frame and she ramps up toa CAT 5 as per the maps of no shear and boiling ocean waters and her crawl speed. Jess this i's not encouraging news.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:01 pm

18z hurricane models are towards the west coast of Florida but that doesn't mean that the east side is safe. This is going to be a dangerous storm for the whole state and who ever didn't evacuate is foolish.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:13 pm

Key West experimcing 54mph SW and gusts overy 65 mph with major tidal flooding g akready. Can post the tweeter video but the homes from this and cars will be woped out tomorrow sad to say.

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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:17 pm

I'm in Orlando Florida where we are only suppose to get 40-60 mph winds throughout the entire storm. Don't know how true that is but so far it's been good

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Post by Guest Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:09 pm

Disney, if you haven't already checked it out, here is the link from the NWS giving details of the hurricane warning in effect for your area.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ045&warncounty=FLC095&firewxzone=FLZ045&local_place1=Orlando%20International%20Airport%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Warning&lat=28.4313&lon=-81.3084#.WbRmHNiQzcs

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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:53 pm

I read that update but I'm still confused how Orlando is projected to have winds that slow for the kind of hurricane that this is

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:19 pm

Just my own personal thought, but I think once past the Keys, the main circulation of Irma doesn't touch land again until the Panhandle, just like it did with Cuba's mainland, because of the frictional gradient. If that's the case, the entire west coast of the sate gets the worst possible effects, and it will be a monster along the entire western edge of the peninsula, as well as several hours after landfall. Again, just my opinion, but there are several models that support this. We just have to wait and see.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:24 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Just my own personal thought, but I think once past the Keys, the main circulation of Irma doesn't touch land again until the Panhandle, just like it did with Cuba's mainland, because of the frictional gradient. If that's the case, the entire west coast of the sate gets the worst possible effects, and it will be a monster along the entire western edge of the peninsula, as well as several hours after landfall. Again, just my opinion, but there are several models that support this. We just have to wait and see.
that would be aweful!!
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:11 pm

Looking back to page 8 of this thread, hopefully nobody did what everybody was saying to do-ie.if you were on the east coast, or had family there, that they should evacuate and head west. I realize that that advice was given because of what the models were showing at the time, but as we all know things have changed quite a bit since then and if they did what was recommended, they would have actually put themselves in harms way. As the saying goes "hindsight is 20/20."

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