Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM uhmmm misses Florida and looks like it wants to head toward Mid Atlantic

this may be a dumb question but what leads u to believe mid Atlantic vs Carolinas? Upper pattern? Even if this hit midatlsntic full on we would still get quite a storm if continued north. I know u feel very low chance and ur prolly right but the nam is def not to discount anymore.

nutleyblizzard wrote:The 18z Nam is east of 12z to the point where it misses Florida completely! Has the storm moving due north. If extrapolated out, landfall would be in the outer banks of NC.

frank just posted above your post possibly midatlantic. This is def get interesting!

Frank_Wx wrote:

That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall. Likely the start of another EWRC.

And Dat NAM!!

Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.

SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.

the wait for that turn north is anyone's guess. Just go have see every day.

SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.

I'll take the disappointment of a missed storm over the destruction that this one is bringing any day.

18z GFS just initialized

This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday. Is Jose heading right for Bermuda? Will Irma be a factor while we travel?

Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday.  Is Jose heading right for Bermuda?  Will Irma be a factor while we travel?

Eeek! That's gonna be tough. Bermuda may very well be in the cross hairs of Jose this weekend.

18Z GFS slightly north of 12z at 48

Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday.  Is Jose heading right for Bermuda?  Will Irma be a factor while we travel?

You may be ok but I imagine the seas will be rough. Also looks like there will be a decent amount of moisture around between these 2 tropical systems. Your cruise line should know sea travel conditions. Hopefully they're being smart about it

Still north of 12z through 66

GFS is quite a ways SW of where the NAM has it at hr 66.

Guys watch the satellite loop. It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??

Wow 884mb!! Why is it so high at initialization but then drops steadily from there, if we make that comparison it would be much lower than 884, hard to believe.  Just misses FL but they still get hit hard, i dunno if this weakens as much as NHC says.

RJB8525 wrote:we now officially have Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Katia in the gulf

This is the first time that there have been three hurricanes at once in the Atlantic since Igor/Julia/Karl in 2010

I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.

TheAresian wrote:I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.

Unfortunately, just heard on CBS.. that Irma destroyed 90% of Barbuda...

Jose is very close to Irma on this 18z run

I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.

Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

syosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop.  It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??

As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tell

Snow88 wrote:Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

2 things.
1. I posted earlier on this page that the movement is no longer due west but now more WNW which means it's turning earlier and brings areas further north in play
2. If you watch this model loop you can see that without a question it appears Irma is pulling Jose along and looks to slingshot it into the mid Atlantic or further north

It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.

algae888 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop.  It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??

As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tell

I agree it won't affect us directly the way it looks right now. I'm hoping for a ton of rain from her and that she pulls Jose in.

Snow88 wrote:It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.

Still could change, look at the changes in the upper levels that have changed already, and its very possible Irma slows down, and syo the WNW was always portrayed, look at NHC cone, its WNW until FL.