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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 4 RAD_TJUA_N0R_ANI.gif.1942b5617a1516ec2cf5835ca34e40b2

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 4 59b05db096467_SAT_CAR_VIS_ANI(1).gif.0f9de32a0a87cfc535462daae196ef17

That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall. Likely the start of another EWRC.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:18 pm

And Dat NAM!!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:20 pm

Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is. Rolling Eyes
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:26 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is. Rolling Eyes
the wait for that turn north is anyone's guess. Just go have see every day.
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:26 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is. Rolling Eyes

I'll take the disappointment of a missed storm over the destruction that this one is bringing any day.

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Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 pm

18z GFS just initialized
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Post by Angela0621 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:36 pm

This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday. Is Jose heading right for Bermuda? Will Irma be a factor while we travel?
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:37 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday.  Is Jose heading right for Bermuda?  Will Irma be a factor while we travel?

Eeek! That's gonna be tough. Bermuda may very well be in the cross hairs of Jose this weekend.
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Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:47 pm

18Z GFS slightly north of 12z at 48
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:49 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday.  Is Jose heading right for Bermuda?  Will Irma be a factor while we travel?

You may be ok but I imagine the seas will be rough. Also looks like there will be a decent amount of moisture around between these 2 tropical systems. Your cruise line should know sea travel conditions. Hopefully they're being smart about it

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Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:51 pm

Still north of 12z through 66
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:51 pm

GFS is quite a ways SW of where the NAM has it at hr 66.

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:57 pm

Guys watch the satellite loop. It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:58 pm

Wow 884mb!! Why is it so high at initialization but then drops steadily from there, if we make that comparison it would be much lower than 884, hard to believe.  Just misses FL but they still get hit hard, i dunno if this weakens as much as NHC says.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 4 Gfs_pr10
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Post by jwalsh Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:59 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:we now officially have Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Katia in the gulf
This is the first time that there have been three hurricanes at once in the Atlantic since Igor/Julia/Karl in 2010
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:01 pm

I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:02 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.

Unfortunately, just heard on CBS.. that Irma destroyed 90% of Barbuda... Sad Sad Sad Sad
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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:04 pm

Jose is very close to Irma on this 18z run
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:05 pm

I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.

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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:07 pm

Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:11 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop.  It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tell
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:13 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

2 things.
1. I posted earlier on this page that the movement is no longer due west but now more WNW which means it's turning earlier and brings areas further north in play
2. If you watch this model loop you can see that without a question it appears Irma is pulling Jose along and looks to slingshot it into the mid Atlantic or further north

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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:13 pm

It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:14 pm

@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop.  It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tell

I agree it won't affect us directly the way it looks right now. I'm hoping for a ton of rain from her and that she pulls Jose in.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

@Snow88 wrote:It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.
Still could change, look at the changes in the upper levels that have changed already, and its very possible Irma slows down, and syo the WNW was always portrayed, look at NHC cone, its WNW until FL.
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