Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall. Likely the start of another EWRC.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
And Dat NAM!!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.

SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
the wait for that turn north is anyone's guess. Just go have see every day.@SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.![]()
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@SoulSingMG wrote:Watch Irma throw us all for a loop..... out to sea, that is.![]()
I'll take the disappointment of a missed storm over the destruction that this one is bringing any day.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
18z GFS just initialized
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday. Is Jose heading right for Bermuda? Will Irma be a factor while we travel?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday. Is Jose heading right for Bermuda? Will Irma be a factor while we travel?
Eeek! That's gonna be tough. Bermuda may very well be in the cross hairs of Jose this weekend.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
18Z GFS slightly north of 12z at 48
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@Angela0621 wrote:This is all giving me severe anxiety! We are supposed to leave on a cruise out of NYC heading to Bermuda on Sunday. Is Jose heading right for Bermuda? Will Irma be a factor while we travel?
You may be ok but I imagine the seas will be rough. Also looks like there will be a decent amount of moisture around between these 2 tropical systems. Your cruise line should know sea travel conditions. Hopefully they're being smart about it
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Still north of 12z through 66
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
GFS is quite a ways SW of where the NAM has it at hr 66.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Guys watch the satellite loop. It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Wow 884mb!! Why is it so high at initialization but then drops steadily from there, if we make that comparison it would be much lower than 884, hard to believe. Just misses FL but they still get hit hard, i dunno if this weakens as much as NHC says.


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
This is the first time that there have been three hurricanes at once in the Atlantic since Igor/Julia/Karl in 2010@RJB8525 wrote:we now officially have Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Katia in the gulf
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@TheAresian wrote:I'll give Irma credit for one thing: she's doing a hell of a job of moving around the islands without hitting any.
Unfortunately, just heard on CBS.. that Irma destroyed 90% of Barbuda...




weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Jose is very close to Irma on this 18z run
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tellsyosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop. It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@Snow88 wrote:Incoming for the Carolinas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
2 things.
1. I posted earlier on this page that the movement is no longer due west but now more WNW which means it's turning earlier and brings areas further north in play
2. If you watch this model loop you can see that without a question it appears Irma is pulling Jose along and looks to slingshot it into the mid Atlantic or further north
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
@algae888 wrote:As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tellsyosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop. It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
I agree it won't affect us directly the way it looks right now. I'm hoping for a ton of rain from her and that she pulls Jose in.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Still could change, look at the changes in the upper levels that have changed already, and its very possible Irma slows down, and syo the WNW was always portrayed, look at NHC cone, its WNW until FL.@Snow88 wrote:It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.
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