2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Worth mentioning that a storm of this magnitude, likely a category 5, to track out to sea but close enough to the coast could still bring high impacts in terms of surge and maybe winds to the Shores.

[rb924119]

Another day, another day of probable insanity in model-land ahaha GFS running now. Strap yourselves in boys and girls, I'm sure we're in for another day of wild rides lmaooooo

[aiannone]

12z GFS roll call!

[weatherwatchermom]

12z GFS roll call!

waiting to see before I go outside to enjoy..hope the start of the new year is going well for you!!

[rb924119]

12z GFS roll call!

We're not a bunch of nerds or anything...........lmao!!

[Radz]

12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!

[aiannone]

The start of the year is going well thank you! and Yea we may be nerds a bit lol

[rb924119]

12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!

5" of snow to the seasonal snow total this year GFS is further west

[aiannone]

Similar to 0z through 120. Maybe a tic south

[nutleyblizzard]

12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!

I think it comes west of 6z.

[aiannone]

Def a bit SW so far through 138

[jmanley32]

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

[jmanley32]

Further south and 13mb weaker at 144. My best guess, a carolinas or VA hit and then ride up inland.  Would still get big impacts if that happened, a cat 3 or 4 would not have much time to weaken.

[weatherwatchermom]

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water

[jmanley32]

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water

Eyewall replacement cycle yes.

[RJB8525]

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

not by much only a 5mph difference

[jmanley32]

00z EPS

Judging  by those anywhere from carolinas north look to have a pretty decent threat ATM.  Do you see OTS still being a possibility? Most things I have read is that door is closing.

Actually its still really split into FL/GOM or up EC.

[weatherwatchermom]

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water

Eyewall replacement cycle yes.

thanks for the correct terminology...

[jmanley32]

GFS is a much smaller storm than 00z Euro was too, interesting.

[aiannone]

Quickly strengthening at 180

[jmanley32]

Quickly strengthening at 180

Yep cat 5 913mb, Barely moving too, thats prolly aiding

[aiannone]

Hour 186 down to 915mb lol

[jmanley32]

Hour 186 down to 915mb lol

Look at the hi-res its 913mb, if this is true the media is go be flying off the handle by then.

[jmanley32]

Wow 910mb...Looks about like the Euro did at 00z honestly but stronger.

[jmanley32]

Just a note 12z CMC is east now of tip of FL and headed for a turn,. GFS through 201 is way slower, past runs it was already up here still way down south and barely moving.

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