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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:17 pm

recon is heading out to take a gander at Jose...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

Our area? No

Some of the same small islands that were just hit by Irma, yes.

Seems to get yanked north and east before it gets anywhere near Florida.

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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:32 pm

GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:01 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

Our area? No

Some of the same small islands that were just hit by Irma, yes.

Seems to get yanked north and east before it gets anywhere near Florida.

Maybe don't speak too soon after seeing snows post on the GEFS below, you never know, though odds are against it.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:02 am

@Snow88 wrote:GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12
Here we go again LOL another 2 weeks of tracking, this will continue till next spring cuz as hurricane season winds down then we track noreasters and then snow!
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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:10 am

Euro, JMA,Navgem, Ukie and GFS are all close with Jose for the coast. Have to see the track of Jose once Irma leaves.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:44 am

LOL
http://wjbq.com/early-models-suggest-hurricane-jose-will-be-a-direct-hit-on-new-england/

While the models are showing this, it's way too early to speculate what will happen. Heck, we still don't even know the exact path of Irma.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:49 pm

NO WAY JOSE!!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:52 pm

Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:54 pm

Man, beat me to it!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Man, beat me to it!  

ME TOO!!!!. lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by clownloach Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:26 pm

http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:32 pm

@clownloach wrote:http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/


Since you posted this I've been watching it get progressively worse as time goes on which was to be expected. I actually saw one guy walking by the small white gazebo that it pans across. Other than that it looks like a ghost town. Kinda surprised that there aren't any crazy windsurfers out there tongue


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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:07 pm

Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:18 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS! No
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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:24 pm

Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:38 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS! No

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.

lol! Brick lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:41 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS! No

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.  

lol! Brick lol!

Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:43 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS! No

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.  

lol! Brick lol!

Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)

Yeah my staff has hated me all week; including today. lol

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:02 pm

I've been much too caught up in Irma to focus on Jose, but I literally was just saying this to my dad while speaking with him on the phone not five minutes ago, as a pattern I just noticed and was thinking about shortly before:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Img_1217

My thoughts on Jose will likely come out Monday, along with those of others, so it should be an interesting discussion. I haven't done any analysis yet, but seeing this soon after I had the identical thought raises my eyebrow a bit and may or may not be a prelude to my analysis (I don't honestly know yet). Will be able to elaborate further in the upcoming update.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:00 pm

Wow just saw models posted from today on Jose. Here we go! Buckle up.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:10 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose
unbelievable that Irma remnants may be the cause. Shown is easily a cat 2 or more crazy. But as with Irma I'm playing it cautious and not go lose sleep over it.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:37 pm

12z GFS looks like a Sandy Redux, recurve back to coast, that result would be terrible.  I will wait to see if Frank pulls trigger on a thread Tues/Wed.  Syo, we may still get our storm!
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Post by Guest Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.  
Irmas remnants will still be around through next weekend?  Cuz it looks like IF this were to happen would be around 18th/19th.
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