Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **RJB8525** Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:20 am

Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:22 am

RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb

what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:17 pm

recon is heading out to take a gander at Jose...

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

Our area? No

Some of the same small islands that were just hit by Irma, yes.

Seems to get yanked north and east before it gets anywhere near Florida.

by **Snow88** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:32 pm

GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:01 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

Our area? No

Some of the same small islands that were just hit by Irma, yes.

Seems to get yanked north and east before it gets anywhere near Florida.

Maybe don't speak too soon after seeing snows post on the GEFS below, you never know, though odds are against it.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:02 am

Snow88 wrote:GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12

Here we go again LOL another 2 weeks of tracking, this will continue till next spring cuz as hurricane season winds down then we track noreasters and then snow!

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:10 am

Euro, JMA,Navgem, Ukie and GFS are all close with Jose for the coast. Have to see the track of Jose once Irma leaves.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:44 am

LOL
http://wjbq.com/early-models-suggest-hurricane-jose-will-be-a-direct-hit-on-new-england/

While the models are showing this, it's way too early to speculate what will happen. Heck, we still don't even know the exact path of Irma.

by **amugs** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:49 pm

NO WAY JOSE!!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:52 pm

Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:54 pm

Man, beat me to it!

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Man, beat me to it!

ME TOO!!!!. lol!

by clownloach Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:26 pm

http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

by **GreyBeard** Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:32 pm

clownloach wrote:http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

Since you posted this I've been watching it get progressively worse as time goes on which was to be expected. I actually saw one guy walking by the small white gazebo that it pans across. Other than that it looks like a ghost town. Kinda surprised that there aren't any crazy windsurfers out there tongue

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:07 pm

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:18 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS!

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:24 pm

Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:38 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS!

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.

lol!

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS!

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.

Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:43 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS!

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.

Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)

Yeah my staff has hated me all week; including today. lol

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:02 pm

I've been much too caught up in Irma to focus on Jose, but I literally was just saying this to my dad while speaking with him on the phone not five minutes ago, as a pattern I just noticed and was thinking about shortly before:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Img_1217

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 5 Img_1217

My thoughts on Jose will likely come out Monday, along with those of others, so it should be an interesting discussion. I haven't done any analysis yet, but seeing this soon after I had the identical thought raises my eyebrow a bit and may or may not be a prelude to my analysis (I don't honestly know yet). Will be able to elaborate further in the upcoming update.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:00 pm

Wow just saw models posted from today on Jose. Here we go! Buckle up.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:10 pm

Snow88 wrote:Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose

unbelievable that Irma remnants may be the cause. Shown is easily a cat 2 or more crazy. But as with Irma I'm playing it cautious and not go lose sleep over it.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:37 pm

12z GFS looks like a Sandy Redux, recurve back to coast, that result would be terrible. I will wait to see if Frank pulls trigger on a thread Tues/Wed. Syo, we may still get our storm!

by Guest Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........

Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.

Irmas remnants will still be around through next weekend? Cuz it looks like IF this were to happen would be around 18th/19th.

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