2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Dtone
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Math23x7
SoulSingMG
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sroc4
Dunnzoo
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frank 638
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35 posters
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........
Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Irmas remnants will still be around through next weekend? Cuz it looks like IF this were to happen would be around 18th/19th.syosnow94 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Will start a thread on Jose Tuesday or Wednesday if he still looks credible to strike our area. I am seeing Irma's remnants at 500mb act as a lever to try and pull Jose into the east coast. That would be quite something.........
Look back a few days to the Irma thread. This is EXACTLY what I said could happen when sroc posted about the Fujiwhara effect.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Keep in mind that the night of the 19th to 20th is astronomical high tide (new moon)
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I hope not last thing we is another Sandy storm again we are still recovering from Sandy I hope Jose goes out to sea with the fishes
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:sroc4 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:Euro
I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS!
Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.
Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)
Yeah my staff has hated me all week; including today. lol
did you not feed them extra and bring in treats like you do during snow tracking??
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
More south and stronger through 108 on the GFS. Blocking high in the atlantic holding strong.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Hr 198 it's either going ots or retrograde...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh shoot looks like it's go b a hit up our way.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Here comes the hook at 210
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091000&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=471
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091000&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=471
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
He is stalled off Carolinas massive giving ts conditions even that farboffshore. It's coming thpugh.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Stalling near Hatteras
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
He is as big not if bigger than Sandy...is that what we see possibly unfold here? 921mb dayumm.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Yup Sandy Hook directly into nearly same spot as Sandy but was stronger. Impact are 700 miles wide. Wow too far out but still concerning.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Wow Sandy like solution on the GFS
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
do I hear an echo lol. Yup the tracking will not end with Irma.Snow88 wrote:Wow Sandy like solution on the GFS
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Highly preliminary, but I'll say it; yup, Jose has my attention for our region.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
did you see the eps I don't have the individuals but they ate if I'm not mistaken close if not over the area. I'm sorry 6z gfs was just way too crazy at 384 it's still hang around not having made landfall yet. Also rb close enough Irma by the gulf great job!rb924119 wrote:Highly preliminary, but I'll say it; yup, Jose has my attention for our region.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
lol at gfs analysis at 200 hrs. Again I'll remind you we've had one recorded Category 3 hurricane to hit our area. A good forecaster will always take probabilities into account. Then combine that with guidance and observations to make a forecast and can we please stop referring to Sandy. my God!!!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
algae888 wrote:lol at gfs analysis at 200 hrs. Again I'll remind you we've had one recorded Category 3 hurricane to hit our area. A good forecaster will always take probabilities into account. Then combine that with guidance and observations to make a forecast and can we please stop referring to Sandy. my God!!!!
here's how i take it. Sandy was a once in a thousand year hybrid storm that we may never see again and a Hurricane can't survive being that strong in our waters by September since they're very cool, they need that real hot water to thrive on
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
People mention Sandy because of the hook
That's the reason why
That's the reason why
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
exactly. No one said we are getting a storm like Sandy. Also history has had cat 1 to 3 hit up this way so while very unlikely it's possible especially if it's strong to the South and fast moving. We just have to wait and see what the models do and better yet what Jose actually does. Let's not call each other names it's not cool.Snow88 wrote:People mention Sandy because of the hook
That's the reason why
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
lol guess we won't have a clue where he goes for a while that's a mess.Snow88 wrote:NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
West through 138 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=472
Stronger Atlantic ridge
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=472
Stronger Atlantic ridge
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
A lot further west through 150 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472
Looks like the 0z GFS so far
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472
Looks like the 0z GFS so far
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Strong hurricane on the GFS near the benchmark. Rain and wind for the coast and then makes hooks it right into New England.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
They've got Jose doing pirouettes in the Atlantic before coming up the coast and seemingly getting stuck in the northeast. This is my first time following during a hurricane season and it's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.
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