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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:41 pm

Keep in mind that the night of the 19th to 20th is astronomical high tide (new moon)

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Post by frank 638 Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:53 pm

I hope not last thing we is another Sandy storm again we are still recovering from Sandy I hope Jose goes out to sea with the fishes

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:07 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Euro

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 6 Ecmwf_10

I CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER TEN DAYS OF THIS! No

Dont worry Soul it will likely be more like 10-14days since these systems always end up slower than forecasted.  

lol! Brick lol!

Hahaha, ugh! I literally don't sleep anymore anticipating model runs! Part of the "curse" I guess. ;-)

Yeah my staff has hated me all week; including today.  lol

did you not feed them extra and bring in treats like you do during snow tracking?? Very Happy
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:03 am

More south and stronger through 108 on the GFS. Blocking high in the atlantic holding strong.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:29 am

Hr 198 it's either going ots or retrograde...
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:30 am

Oh shoot looks like it's go b a hit up our way.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:32 am

Here comes the hook at 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091000&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=471
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:36 am

He is stalled off Carolinas massive giving ts conditions even that farboffshore. It's coming thpugh.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:40 am

Stalling near Hatteras
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:43 am

He is as big not if bigger than Sandy...is that what we see possibly unfold here? 921mb dayumm.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:44 am

Yup Sandy Hook directly into nearly same spot as Sandy but was stronger. Impact are 700 miles wide. Wow too far out but still concerning.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:46 am

Wow Sandy like solution on the GFS
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:49 am

@Snow88 wrote:Wow Sandy like solution on the GFS
do I hear an echo lol. Yup the tracking will not end with Irma.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:05 am

Highly preliminary, but I'll say it; yup, Jose has my attention for our region.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:11 am

@rb924119 wrote:Highly preliminary, but I'll say it; yup, Jose has my attention for our region.
did you see the eps I don't have the individuals but they ate if I'm not mistaken close if not over the area. I'm sorry 6z gfs was just way too crazy at 384 it's still hang around not having made landfall yet. Also rb close enough Irma by the gulf great job!
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Post by algae888 Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:42 am

lol at gfs analysis at 200 hrs. Again I'll remind you we've had one recorded Category 3 hurricane to hit our area. A good forecaster will always take probabilities into account. Then combine that with guidance and observations to make a forecast and can we please stop referring to Sandy. my God!!!!
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:38 am

@algae888 wrote:lol at gfs analysis at 200 hrs. Again I'll remind you we've had one recorded Category 3 hurricane to hit our area. A good forecaster will always take probabilities into account. Then combine that with guidance and observations to make a forecast and can we please stop referring to Sandy. my God!!!!

here's how i take it. Sandy was a once in a thousand year hybrid storm that we may never see again and a Hurricane can't survive being that strong in our waters by September since they're very cool, they need that real hot water to thrive on
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:31 am

People mention Sandy because of the hook

That's the reason why
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:45 am

@Snow88 wrote:People mention Sandy because of the hook

That's the reason why
exactly. No one said we are getting a storm like Sandy. Also history has had cat 1 to 3 hit up this way so while very unlikely it's possible especially if it's strong to the South and fast moving. We just have to wait and see what the models do and better yet what Jose actually does. Let's not call each other names it's not cool.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:13 am

NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:40 am

@Snow88 wrote:NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
lol guess we won't have a clue where he goes for a while that's a mess.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:10 pm

West through 138 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=472

Stronger Atlantic ridge
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:15 pm

A lot further west through 150 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472

Looks like the 0z GFS so far
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Post by Snow88 Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:42 pm

Strong hurricane on the GFS near the benchmark. Rain and wind for the coast and then makes hooks it right into New England.
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Post by Guest Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:43 pm

They've got Jose doing pirouettes in the Atlantic before coming up the coast and seemingly getting stuck in the northeast. This is my first time following during a hurricane season and it's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

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