Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Snow88]

Strong hurricane on the GFS near the benchmark. Rain and wind for the coast and then makes hooks it right into New England.

[Guest]

They've got Jose doing pirouettes in the Atlantic before coming up the coast and seemingly getting stuck in the northeast. This is my first time following during a hurricane season and it's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

[Snow88]

CMC is well OTS but did trend further west

[jwalsh]

12z GFS

[Snow88]

Check out the Ukmet

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

Very close to Florida

[Snow88]

Euro is about 30 mb weaker on the 12z run than the 0z run

[Snow88]

970 low into Florida on the JMA

[jmanley32]

Not commenting on Jose till it looks like a threat but I'm def watching. Will b interesting to see how he unfolds as track looks very chaotic.

[Snow88]

Euro is OTS unless it hooks. It really gains strength up here. WTF.

[jmanley32]

Okay I am going to comment on Jose within 5 days only as I think thats fair, Al is right 200+ hrs is just a crapshoot. Jose gets dangerously close to bahamas at day 5 with a pressure of 931mb on 18z GFS.

[jmanley32]

12z GFS

thats just insane but too far out.

[RJB8525]

another fun week of tracking

[amugs]

These storms have trended west over computer model paths this year. Time will tell. Like Frank said need a few more days to see what is what.

[Math23x7]

What the ECMWF is great at is picking up the general set up days out.  What it is not good at is exact location of the low pressure system.  That is something people need to understand.  Remember, a few days ago, it had the eye of Irma going right through Miami.  It ended up going through the Keys 100 miles to the west.  But because this storm was huge, it was going to impact eastern Florida anyway. The question was by how much.  While Miami did not experience the apocalyptic damage, Irma still had a high impact on the city, especially from crane collapses and a five foot storm surge.  Footage shows that the streets essentially became part of the ocean.  We won't know the full extent of the damage in Florida for another few days but I do anticipate widespread damage especially along the Gulf Coast.  I personally think all of the evacuation orders and preparations were justified, not just because of the forecast, but because of what occurred.

What people also need to realize is that four days out, the ECMWF had Sandy making landfall near Ocean City, MD.  It actually made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ, about 80 miles away.  Either way the NY/NJ was going to have a major impact because of how large of a system it was.

Of course, when it comes to snowstorms, people really need to take this 50-100 mile margin of error into account.  Exhibit A is January 2015 from "Juno".  The 50-100 mile difference between the EURO and the observations meant the difference for some between two feet of snow and two inches of snow.  Exhibit B is the January 23rd, 2016 blizzard known as "Jonas."  Less than two days before it hit, the ECMWF OP/ENS had us in the 4-8" range.  We got over two feet of snow from it.  It had the 12" snow line south of NYC but ended up being in the Hudson Valley.  Exhibit C is the winter storm last March commonly known as "Stella."  The low being a bit further west that what the ECMWF had.  so the 24" zone, which NYC was included in, was 50-100 miles north/west while CPK had 7.6" with sleet.

Now, the GFS overdid the intensity of the storm without question.  It had Irma making landfall in Florida at sub-900 mb pressures.  It was actually above 930 mb when it hit the Keys.  So like others, I take the ECMWF over the GFS.  But the EURO isn't perfect either.

[sroc4]

Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range

[jmanley32]

Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range

what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.

[Math23x7]

My rule of thumb when it comes to high-impact hurricanes on the GFS/CMC has always been this: Until the ECMWF catches on, it's a fantasy storm.

[sroc4]

Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range

what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.

I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week. This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons. In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role. First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days? Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza. I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame. JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.

The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time. 60%/40 with low confidence. This of course is subject to change.

[sroc4]

My rule of thumb when it comes to high-impact hurricanes on the GFS/CMC has always been this: Until the ECMWF catches on, it's a fantasy storm.

We all know your love of DT and the Euro Mikey...lol

[rb924119]

Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range

what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.

I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week.  This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons.   In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role.   First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days?  Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza.  I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame.  JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.  

The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time.  60%/40 with low confidence.  This of course  is subject to change.    

I'm hurt, Scott lmfaooooo jk definitely a sensible and respectable approach aha

My initial thought was that this system (Jose) was going to landfall somewhere along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, but that was based on about 15 minutes of analysis two or three days ago. I still haven't had time to go in-depth with it, but as of yesterday, and even this morning, it was looking like I might have to adjust my thinking to the following: southeastern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador (and no, not just because of the spaghettis lol). Take all of this with a salt lick, though, because I haven't looked at nearly enough to make a truly "informed" decision as to say where I think this system is most likely to track. Those are just my preliminary options that are currently on the table at the moment, though, I do not think this has a chance of getting into any area from Florida westward.

[rb924119]

As per usual, I fully intend to do a video detailing my thoughts, so expect that to come out as early as this evening/tonight, but no later than tomorrow evening, for those that are interested

[weatherwatchermom]

As per usual, I fully intend to do a video detailing my thoughts, so expect that to come out as early as this evening/tonight, but no later than tomorrow evening, for those that are interested

always interest in your videos rb..you do a great job!!

[sroc4]

Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range

what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.

I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week.  This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons.   In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role.   First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days?  Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza.  I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame.  JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.  

The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time.  60%/40 with low confidence.  This of course  is subject to change.    

I'm hurt, Scott lmfaooooo jk definitely a sensible and respectable approach aha

My initial thought was that this system (Jose) was going to landfall somewhere along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, but that was based on about 15 minutes of analysis two or three days ago. I still haven't had time to go in-depth with it, but as of yesterday, and even this morning, it was looking like I might have to adjust my thinking to the following: southeastern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador (and no, not just because of the spaghettis lol). Take all of this with a salt lick, though, because I haven't looked at nearly enough to make a truly "informed" decision as to say where I think this system is most likely to track. Those are just my preliminary options that are currently on the table at the moment, though, I do not think this has a chance of getting into any area from Florida westward.

Why are you "pretend hurt" Ray.  lol  Personally if you put a gun to my head, and I actually had this written but then erased it before I hit send on the above comments I made, from OBX to Novia Scotia is where I think, if it is going to landfall, needs to pay particular attention.  The reason I include areas south of that is because of the WAR.  With Irma I did not believe that it would be as strong as it was.  But the nose of that SOB really pushed her further S and W than I thought.  So in this case with 4.5-5 days out with a 500mb pattern that looks like this:




.....a tick west is not out of the realm of possibility.  I guess Fla is prob a tad far south in reality as Jose will have a much further N starting point, but I don't believe we can completely exclude the area from Ga/Sc area on Northward if that 591 thickness trends stronger and west.  Well see

[Frank_Wx]

12z EURO for Jose

[Frank_Wx]

Goes OTS from there, but it's west of 00z run

[sroc4]

FWIW here is the 12Z Ukmet. 00Z was very similar. The Ukie did a great job with Irma and the west track. Again its all really early so I am not getting to worked up over any one soln. I have my thoughts but will wait until we see some consistency at H5

[Snow88]

Euro went a lot further west compared to 0z

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