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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:15 pm

Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:08 pm

Euro seems frozen on hr 42 for me. Anyone else having the same problem?

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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro seems frozen on hr 42 for me.  Anyone else having the same problem?
yes out to hour 96 now.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:28 pm

Hours 168-192 of the EURO shows Jose stalled off just south of Long Island!
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Post by jake732 Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:48 pm

Is it even a tropical storm on the euro when it stalls??
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:02 pm

Rb spoke of this yesterday that Jose probably transitions to subtropical however if it were to threaten lsnd the same advisories as for a ts or hurricane would go out if the same threats are involved. I'm hearing most chatter on other forums saying ots. Pretty much unanonmously.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

Respectfully, in my opinion; neither (or, a combination lol, depending on how you look at it). I fully believe some of Irma's energy gets entangled with Jose while somewhere between the Outer Banks and southeastern New England. But why? Follow the pattern; it's another wave break. Why is that? Progressive pattern with amplification upstream in the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. My thought has been that as the western trough deepens and the eastern ridging responds (thank you for the aid, SOI), the ridging that amplifies in the northern Plains and central Canada is going to crash eastward. However, Irma's remnants will only be on the way out; not entirely out yet. As the ridging toppled eastward not all of Irma's energy is able to escape because as the ridging crashes over top it essentially creates a much weaker and disorganized cut-off low that meanders around. As Jose works northward in response to the reshuffling and breakdown of ridging keeping it suppressed (lack of diabatic heating from Jose since it is weak combined with the tendency for the ridge to want to naturally split with one piece centering over the eastern CONUS (again upstream amplification and SOI-driven) the other will centralize to the east between Jose and pseudo-blocking upper-level low near 30N that tries to merge with a higher latitude trough but is unsuccessful and ends up cut off. This is where I think it gets interesting. Because the remnants of Irma will be trapped within a close proximity of Jose, those two systems should interact. That will do two things. First, significantly slow Jose's north and northeastward progression as the two begin to rotate cyxlonically about each other until phased. Secondly, by slowing it down, this *should* allow the ridge that toppled over the remnants of Irma to continue to propagate eastward over top of the merged energies as well as merge, or begin to merge with the eastern half of the ridge that split (one part relocating over the eastern CONUS, and the other east of Jose and west of the upper-level cut-off being fed by increased latent heat fluxes from the incredibly warm Atlantic. With ridging beginning to banana the the east and north, Jose would have nowhere to go but west or west-northwest as the steering flow becomes directed that way. Basically my thoughts in a nutshell aha hopefully that made sense, but I can't really elaborate much more than via text atm. Sorry everybody :/


Last edited by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

Respectfully, in my opinion; neither (or, a combination lol, depending on how you look at it). I fully believe some of Irma's energy gets entangled with Jose while somewhere between the Outer Banks and southeastern New England. But why? Follow the pattern; it's another wave break. Why is that? Progressive pattern with amplification upstream in the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. My thought has been that as the western trough deepens and the eastern ridging responds (thank you for the aid, SOI), the ridging that amplifies in the northern Plains and central Canada is going to crash eastward. However, Irma's remnants will only be on the way out; not entirely out yet. As the ridging toppled eastward not all of Irma's energy is able to escape because as the ridging crashes over top it essentially creates a much weaker and disorganized cut-off low that meanders around. As Jose works northward in response to the reshuffling and breakdown of ridging keeping it suppressed (lack of diabatic heating from Jose since it is weak combined with the tendency for the ridge to want to naturally split with one piece centering over the eastern CONUS (again upstream amplification and SOI-driven) the other will centralize to the east between Jose and pseudo-blocking upper-level low near 30N that tries to merge with a higher latitude trough but is unsuccessful and ends up cut off. This is where I think it gets interesting. Because the remnants of Irma will be trapped within a close proximity of Jose, those two systems should interact. That will do two things. First, significantly slow Jose's north and northeastward progression as the two begin to rotate cyxlonically about each other until phased. Secondly, by slowing it down, this *should* allow the ridge that toppled over the remnants of Irma to continue to propagate eastward over top of the merged energies as well as merge, or begin to merge with the eastern half of the ridge that split (one part relocating over the eastern CONUS, and the other east of Jose and west of the upper-level cut-off being fed by increased latent heat fluxes from the incredibly warm Atlantic. With ridging beginning to banana the the east and north, Jose would have nowhere to go but west or west-northwest as the steering flow becomes directed that way and a secondary trough tries cutting in beneath the blocking ridge to the north, possibly drawing Jose further back. Basically my thoughts in a nutshell aha hopefully that made sense, but I can't really elaborate much more than via text atm. Sorry everybody :/
Wow thats a lot to have happen to get it to do what models show, but the fact that models are picking up on these weird tracks which what you say fully supports what they show, other than that piece that does kick it ots (which you said you feel isn't going to be a factor). One question, does he strengthen when phased or does he remain weak making any impacts minimal (best guess, like sroc said another 2-3 days and we should have a better idea)?
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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:35 pm

Not only a lot to have happen, but a lot to type on mobile ahahahaha and yeah, I think some strengthening is probable, as extra-tropical transitions are inherently a rapid intensification process, but maintenance of whatever intensity Jose is at the time is certainly likely in my opinion.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:57 pm

12z EURO Ensemble mean is very close to a Benchmark storm right now lol oh boy. Control looks like the Op, though just a little further south..........

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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:00 pm

The NAM doesn't look too swift......ridging much more developed to the east and north of Jose through the end of its run. Granted, it's beyond its usable range, but that could be a scary sign **IF** modeling starts going in that direction. Something we need to watch over coming days, but I definitely like where I stand right now, unfortunately.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

Respectfully, in my opinion; neither (or, a combination lol, depending on how you look at it). I fully believe some of Irma's energy gets entangled with Jose while somewhere between the Outer Banks and southeastern New England. But why? Follow the pattern; it's another wave break. Why is that? Progressive pattern with amplification upstream in the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. My thought has been that as the western trough deepens and the eastern ridging responds (thank you for the aid, SOI), the ridging that amplifies in the northern Plains and central Canada is going to crash eastward. However, Irma's remnants will only be on the way out; not entirely out yet. As the ridging toppled eastward not all of Irma's energy is able to escape because as the ridging crashes over top it essentially creates a much weaker and disorganized cut-off low that meanders around. As Jose works northward in response to the reshuffling and breakdown of ridging keeping it suppressed (lack of diabatic heating from Jose since it is weak combined with the tendency for the ridge to want to naturally split with one piece centering over the eastern CONUS (again upstream amplification and SOI-driven) the other will centralize to the east between Jose and pseudo-blocking upper-level low near 30N that tries to merge with a higher latitude trough but is unsuccessful and ends up cut off. This is where I think it gets interesting. Because the remnants of Irma will be trapped within a close proximity of Jose, those two systems should interact. That will do two things. First, significantly slow Jose's north and northeastward progression as the two begin to rotate cyxlonically about each other until phased. Secondly, by slowing it down, this *should* allow the ridge that toppled over the remnants of Irma to continue to propagate eastward over top of the merged energies as well as merge, or begin to merge with the eastern half of the ridge that split (one part relocating over the eastern CONUS, and the other east of Jose and west of the upper-level cut-off being fed by increased latent heat fluxes from the incredibly warm Atlantic. With ridging beginning to banana the the east and north, Jose would have nowhere to go but west or west-northwest as the steering flow becomes directed that way. Basically my thoughts in a nutshell aha hopefully that made sense, but I can't really elaborate much more than via text atm. Sorry everybody :/

Ahh Ray...this is brilliant. And I know it isnt as simple as what I stated...that was a Im at work and dont have time to write it up. In part I am correct in saying the initial movement NE of Irmas remnants will erode the Ridge some. If enough then Irma may get pulled towards her as she lifts out. The piece she leaves behind, TROUGH SPLIT, is the second part of the equation, one that would not have mattered if Irmas track over the next 2-3days is influenced too much by 1)the strong long wave trough currently interacting with and shearing him some over the N Mid Atlantic, and 2) Irmas lead energy exiting stage NE between approx day 2-3.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:54 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

Respectfully, in my opinion; neither (or, a combination lol, depending on how you look at it). I fully believe some of Irma's energy gets entangled with Jose while somewhere between the Outer Banks and southeastern New England. But why? Follow the pattern; it's another wave break. Why is that? Progressive pattern with amplification upstream in the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. My thought has been that as the western trough deepens and the eastern ridging responds (thank you for the aid, SOI), the ridging that amplifies in the northern Plains and central Canada is going to crash eastward. However, Irma's remnants will only be on the way out; not entirely out yet. As the ridging toppled eastward not all of Irma's energy is able to escape because as the ridging crashes over top it essentially creates a much weaker and disorganized cut-off low that meanders around. As Jose works northward in response to the reshuffling and breakdown of ridging keeping it suppressed (lack of diabatic heating from Jose since it is weak combined with the tendency for the ridge to want to naturally split with one piece centering over the eastern CONUS (again upstream amplification and SOI-driven) the other will centralize to the east between Jose and pseudo-blocking upper-level low near 30N that tries to merge with a higher latitude trough but is unsuccessful and ends up cut off. This is where I think it gets interesting. Because the remnants of Irma will be trapped within a close proximity of Jose, those two systems should interact. That will do two things. First, significantly slow Jose's north and northeastward progression as the two begin to rotate cyxlonically about each other until phased. Secondly, by slowing it down, this *should* allow the ridge that toppled over the remnants of Irma to continue to propagate eastward over top of the merged energies as well as merge, or begin to merge with the eastern half of the ridge that split (one part relocating over the eastern CONUS, and the other east of Jose and west of the upper-level cut-off being fed by increased latent heat fluxes from the incredibly warm Atlantic. With ridging beginning to banana the the east and north, Jose would have nowhere to go but west or west-northwest as the steering flow becomes directed that way. Basically my thoughts in a nutshell aha hopefully that made sense, but I can't really elaborate much more than via text atm. Sorry everybody :/

Ahh Ray...this is brilliant. And I know it isnt as simple as what I stated...that was a Im at work and dont have time to write it up.  In part I am correct in saying the initial movement NE of Irmas remnants will erode the Ridge some.  If enough then Irma may get pulled towards her as she lifts out.  The piece she leaves behind, TROUGH SPLIT, is the second part of the equation, one that would not have mattered if Irmas track over the next 2-3days is influenced too much by 1)the strong long wave trough currently interacting with and shearing him some over the N Mid Atlantic, and 2) Irmas lead energy exiting stage NE between approx day 2-3.  
Ahh sroc, you tired? I think you mewant Jose in place of a few of those "irmas" Not sure but that was confusing.  LOL This is reminding me ALOT of Hermine last year, is it at all similar?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:The NAM doesn't look too swift......ridging much more developed to the east and north of Jose through the end of its run. Granted, it's beyond its usable range, but that could be a scary sign **IF** modeling starts going in that direction. Something we need to watch over coming days, but I definitely like where I stand right now, unfortunately.
Here we go, gonna be another long week lol, do you mean swift as in it stalls out?  I disagree with other forums all saying its going OTS, I see the trend towards the coast, 18z GFS coming in now. Yeah your right usually a storm does deepen and expand when going subtropical or hybrid.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The NAM doesn't look too swift......ridging much more developed to the east and north of Jose through the end of its run. Granted, it's beyond its usable range, but that could be a scary sign **IF** modeling starts going in that direction. Something we need to watch over coming days, but I definitely like where I stand right now, unfortunately.
Here we go, gonna be another long week lol, do you mean swift as in it stalls out?  I disagree with other forums all saying its going OTS, I see the trend towards the coast, 18z GFS coming in now. Yeah your right usually a storm does deepen and expand when going subtropical or hybrid.

I meant it as in could be problematic for the areas I'm concerned for down the road lol

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The NAM doesn't look too swift......ridging much more developed to the east and north of Jose through the end of its run. Granted, it's beyond its usable range, but that could be a scary sign **IF** modeling starts going in that direction. Something we need to watch over coming days, but I definitely like where I stand right now, unfortunately.
Here we go, gonna be another long week lol, do you mean swift as in it stalls out?  I disagree with other forums all saying its going OTS, I see the trend towards the coast, 18z GFS coming in now. Yeah your right usually a storm does deepen and expand when going subtropical or hybrid.

I meant it as in could be problematic for the areas I'm concerned for down the road lol
Which you did not totally explain yet you tease lol, or i missed it, is this a credible threat to the immediate NYC area and or CT or NJ?  I do not want to tell people anything yet until I hear more from you guys.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:11 pm

NHC cone has shifted west some, outer area of wind probability is near coast, I think if models continue they will adjust west.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:12 pm

I outlined my areas of interest, didn't I? Earlier last week I felt anywhere from the Carolinas to New England. Toward the middle-endish part of the week I changed to southern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador, and now since the end of last week and this weekend I've settled on anywhere from the northern Mid-Atlantic (so the Delmarva, NJ, and PA) to just north of New England as my target zone for "probable" landfall. Note the use of quotes because it's only in my opinion that a landfall is probable in this region, and in reality is far from certain. Now I know I outlined my risk areas ahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:19 pm

rb924119 wrote:I outlined my areas of interest, didn't I? Earlier last week I felt anywhere from the Carolinas to New England. Toward the middle-endish part of the week I changed to southern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador, and now since the end of last week and this weekend I've settled on anywhere from the northern Mid-Atlantic (so the Delmarva, NJ, and PA) to just north of New England as my target zone for "probable" landfall. Note the use of quotes because it's only in my opinion that a landfall is probable in this region, and in reality is far from certain. Now I know I outlined my risk areas ahaha
Yes you did, I remember now.  Well you did well with Irma, lets see what happens. 18z GFS is well west of 12z but still east of cape cod.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:00 pm

18z GEFS, now has a few members that bring it left into the coast

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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:03 pm

2 new lemons in the Atlantic
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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:12 pm

Hurricane models shifted west
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:24 pm

UKMET best skillmacore over 5 + days but nor Mt 100%
Also JB has dug up am the equidistant theory of big storms are equidistant to the land featuers. Harvey hit Rockport and Irma hit Naples sonthebn3xt big storm us to hit .....OBX region. Not total explanation but the jist. Interesting if it comes true.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:03 am

Wow 00z gfs very intense storm looks to be coming in. We shall see. 950 mb
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:06 am

We appear to be getting into the 5 to 7 day range if gfs is right.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:01 am

rb924119 wrote:I really like a blend of the NAVGEM, EURO, CMC, AND UKMET right now, though I do believe we see a bit of a correction northwest with the operational, and a large correction northwest of the respective Ensembles. The Euro and GFS Ensembles, even the Operationals, are trying to drop way too much trough into southeastern Canada in my opinion, which is why they are largely out to sea still, though gradually correcting westward in time already. In this regard, I like the NAVGEM most followed by the CMC, though I still believe a further west adjustment will be probable in coming days as the temporal scale shortens and feedbacks with the Atlantic ridge are sensed/less trough is attempted to be dropped further southeast into southeastern Canada in response to a moderately strong persistent SOI base-state, progressive pattern and large-amplitude trough barreling into the western CONUS. **In my opinion**, NOTHING supports a trough breaking through the North American ridge to swing Jose out before landfalling, while A LOT of things support a westward adjustment. Have to see where modeling takes us. Btw, UKMET out to 144 looks a lot like the NAVGEM, though further west. However, it's at the fringe of its temporal range and is not being taken seriously at this time, even though I mentioned it in my blend above (I like where it looks to be going, but did not factor it in......yet). Be back this evening!

Well the 6z GFS would support your thinking in a westward adjustment. Has come way west since 18z yesterday

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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:22 am

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 12L_gefs_18z

0z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 12L_gefs_00z

6z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 12L_gefs_06z
big increase in intensity on those maps too.
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