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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:31 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 12L_gefs_18z

0z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 12L_gefs_00z

6z GEFS

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 12L_gefs_06z
big increase in intensity on those maps too.

Yeah, definitely further west and stronger from the overnight runs. Still turns OTS, but doesn't need to come much further west at some of those strengths to cause some problems

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:46 am

Won't take much of a shift to cause a full landfall. Lots chatter this could happen all over varioys discussion places. Nhc isn't swinging to left yet but did add slight nw turn in cone. Also they took intensity in consideration now showing hurricane going north. He was up to 80 mph last I checked a small uptick. But does anyone else find it odd they are not doing any recon data on Jose? I mean even if it isn't a threat which is appearing it more likely is they still usually do recon missions.
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:02 am

Rb,

Great spelled out post on Jose. Going to be an interesting few days upcoming.

Meanwhile we have a Lemon and Orange in the Atlantic.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 DJrvOVUWAAU0Fon

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:34 am

Many are writing Jose off and say fish storm
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:00 am

Well nhc just shifted cone west and the coast is now included in windfield probability area slveit the smallest chance.. Maybe things will change over the coming days. Or maybe they are right and it will go ots. But rb makes a lot sense on his idea and u def can't ignore all the models leaning west. Cmc even made landfall if I remember correctly.
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Post by carbomb31 Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:24 am

rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do? does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?

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Post by EnyapWeather Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:43 am

12z is a tick more east 48hr
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:08 pm

@EnyapWeather wrote:12z is a tick more east 48hr

It's actually SW of the last run at Hr 48.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:14 pm

Jeeze sub 945 mb on hi res flirting just offsgore. Go be a close call. Still misses to east part of cape gets clipped but he gets further north B4 treking ne.
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Post by freezerburn Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:16 pm

Just off coast and strong...looks like it gets a little further north towards the cape before turning its compared to 6z

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:22 pm

Ok I was wrong there is now going to be recon to Jose tomorrow.
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:40 pm

UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:47 pm

Here comes Lee - LOL!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Gfs_z500a_us_44

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:51 pm

OH NO WAY JOSE !!
Ukie has the hot hand with these tropical entities 5 days plus. Interseting run and set up it shows - almost to a T of what Rb explained.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.16273a1f3d3f068c1bad7620e7798917

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3af14cdc42176e12453d4c8670f4c804

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:19 pm

NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:23 pm

@amugs wrote:UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5
The center!! What direction is it headed in? That's still close rnpugh if gfs intensify verifies to cause issues from VA to CT.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:33 pm

@amugs wrote:NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218
Looks like wind field would b huge. Prolly still cause ts winds well inlsnd. And that's bout as close as u can get without a landfall. Rb ftw so far!
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Post by Guest Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:43 pm

If you follow the UKIE and the Navgem that Mugsy posted especially. You can see that Jose is moving NNW and continues to a NJ or LI landfall.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:17 pm

shout


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Img_6310
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:33 pm

Euro east of 00z

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad

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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:50 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad

lets see what the ens do

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:50 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad
Lol Dr. Who? Model wobbles I think we have a decent handle on this by sun. I hope so cuz if it does show hit it looks like wed so would b 3 days.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:52 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:shout


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Img_6310
Jeeze that was fast was just at 30% now both high. No rest for trackers. We keep up like this we gonna make it to Greek alphabet. Rival 2005.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:29 pm

lol soooo no clue...

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