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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:13 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:CMC back to NC landfall

I'm he Like a Star @ heaven aring the NAVGEM is west as well, fwiw.


I believe Navgem is ots
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:22 pm

6z NAVGEM was very close to the coast, I don't have the full 12z run yet, only out to hr 60

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Navgem_mslp_uv850_us_25

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:27 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Nvg10_13
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Nvg10_14
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:27 pm

Just wrote this in another forum.  

all modeling has a piece hold back and retrograde to the N GOM coast line. That is starting and is not unexpected. Here is is on the GFS:
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Ddd10
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Ccc10

Here is the difference on the CMC. Same idea happening, but the only difference is on the CMC Jose pulls out and the Atlantic and NE ridges bridge changing the steering flow towards the coast:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Cmc10
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Cmc_bb10

Vs the GFS:
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Cmc_bb11

Is the CMC idea plausable? Yes!! Is it likely at this point...probably not. Its this soln however, that prevents me from writing Maria off just yet.  Next 3-4days will let us know what Jose is doing and if the ridge bridge idea holds any water.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:30 pm

All trop systems in the N Hemi eventually recurve to the N and E because they get caught in the westerlies. The Coriolis effect is whats responsible for that. General rule: Once a trop system begins the turn north the table tilts to the north and east such that if there is any weakness at all the spinning top(trop system) will more than likely fall towards the weakness unless blocked and or acted on by other influences. With Jose in the mix there just doesnt seem to be enough of a block over the Atlantic as currently modeled to prevent the recurve OTS through the weakness. I dont trust the CMC. We shall see

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote: All trop systems in the N Hemi eventually recurve to the N and E because they get caught in the westerlies. The Coriolis effect is whats responsible for that. General rule: Once a trop system begins the turn north the table tilts to the north and east such that if there is any weakness at all the spinning top(trop system) will more than likely fall towards the weakness unless blocked and or acted on by other influences. With Jose in the mix there just doesnt seem to be enough of a block over the Atlantic as currently modeled to prevent the recurve OTS through the weakness.  I dont trust the CMC.  We shall see

Agree. I don't see a pathway for this to come up here. I think either Jose draws it OTS or even if the bridge between the two builds and that forces it more NW, it's either drawn into NC or hits the high pressure up here and is forced slowly east. Still a pretty big difference at 500mb from the 6z and 12z GFS though, so I guess it's possible the setup can still change a bit

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:41 pm

Reason wehy they have landfalls is they get Jose out of the way. He is screwing this up royally for those who want some tropical action up here!
We wait till the weekend to see what is what.
If Jose does indeed rot out or moves east far enough away we have a monster trough coming through the mid section of the country and the ridge will rebuild over the top.
Not saying this will happen but IF he does indeed move out then OBX through NE needs to pay attention.
Otherwise she sails OTS.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:57 pm

At 938 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a band of torrential
rainfall over Nantucket associated with Jose, moving southwest
at 20 mph.

As of 930 pm, Nantucket Airport reported a storm total of 5.00
inches of rain.

dang alot rain
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:16 am

Maria looks to go safely OTS and not hit the U.S

The northeast has been teased by Irma ( few runs ), Jose and possibly Maria.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:08 am

NHC'S cone has adjusted west....... Shocked

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Img_6413
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:02 pm

I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:11 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest

Yes and so is the Ukie. Need more support and a few more runs.
Remember trends for all hcanes this year have been more west as time goes on. If she gets to 73* then it gets very interesting for OBX - after that we need to see what all these moving parts do - troughs, HP's.

If this Meso Low/falre up featurepops off the coast of Fla then it makes things interesting from the trough over the SE which looks to be going N and not so POS from latest obs. SO the steering changes direction from a WSW to more S.
Effects on Maria ?? Time will tell.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 DKWBb_0XUAALfwX

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:31 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest

did you see bernie rayno's video yesterday...he had some concerns..

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/maria-and-the-us-coastline-next-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4



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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:33 pm

Yeah its west but I still think its ots. They will keep correcting
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:44 pm

215PM FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for A Dam Failure in Isabela Municipality y Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico... #prwx

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Post by freezerburn Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:07 pm

Bernies new video today basically broke it down to how long the trough from the west takes to kick it ots. Mentions it's supposed to be Wednesday night.  Longer trough takes, Maria moves closer to coast.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:17 pm

Interesting what Bernie says. He has been doing pretty gr8 this year and many others. But doesn't look like any effects would make it up here unless it might ssesthat trough and the second one pucks it up when it's far rnpugh be to skirk nj li coast.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:59 pm

As I said in a post earlier that the meso low off FLA will take that trough from POS SW flow to a Neutral S flow and the strong HP over SE CAN in conjuction will bring her more west and draw her very close as JM said to OBX.
Once that HP slides off the coast as currently modelled aND fn weakens it allows the westerly to come in and push her away from us. What can happen is that the HP is delayed moving east, doesn't weaken as much or she speeds up.
BUT the cone has shifted west not doubt in a big way and ALL the top cyclones this year have shifted west in a big way.
It us a shame cause models from late later week had her coming up the coast by Monday which would have allowed strong HP to force her into the US mainland. That would have been cool to see.
More to come I am sure as per model shifts

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:59 pm

GFS hour 96 shows Maria approaching outer banks NC. Trough is a bit slower this run.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:55 am

Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers.... I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:23 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers....  I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night

Much appreciated recap, WxwatchMom! :-)
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:03 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers....  I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night

Much appreciated MOMMA and u think your sleep are funky now, wait till winter mid Nov onward through early Jan!!!

Eps saying NC/VA landfall possibility. Trough slower nuts like u said a tad weaker. Raynor nailing this!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Img_2081

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:14 pm

18z GFS says watchout NC, My eye is getting very close to obx before jetting straight east, kinda  a odd track, does she have any chance of coming further north or will that ridge completely block her?

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Gfs_ms28
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS says watchout NC, My eye is getting very close to obx before jetting straight east, kinda  a odd track, does she have any chance of coming further north or will that ridge completely block her?

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Gfs_ms28

That's bc the trough kicks it east if that trough is slower maybe it comes north
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:40 pm

That looks north and west2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 16 Img_9410
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