2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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35 posters
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Thats what I think,but boy would that be the revival for the GFS this year after doing so badly. And its still so fr off.skinsfan1177 wrote:To me the eur has to gfs global
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
And what was your prediction rb?
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Bahamas are fu*ked on this run lol
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
danger danger FL! 925mb!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh yes and im not busting ur chops, just if you see a change def let us know ur new thoughts!rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Will this ride the coast after 240 or can that not be deduced? Def long ways off on tracking this one for any effects to our area.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Oh yes and im not busting ur chops, just if you see a change def let us know ur new thoughts!rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
Again, I know you're not lmao You worry too much


rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
aiannone wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
And what was your prediction rb?
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
wow 920mb headed right for SE coast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
rb924119 wrote:aiannone wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
And what was your prediction rb?
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs
Thanks!
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Will this ride the coast after 240 or can that not be deduced? Def long ways off on tracking this one for any effects to our area.
I would tend to think it heads inland, but that's pure speculation.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Moral of the story here is the major models like the EC not GOM at this point haha
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Actually looks like Euro if went out further may hit up here or just south.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS develops another low behind Jose which would be Lee. Very active Atlantic basin.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Here we go, another possible threat? Models keep him ots but you never know, aweful close to Irma on projected path. Also note progged to become a major, and man is it close to the islands that just got destroyed, if it happens again forget ever recovering. So bad.


jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Could it get any worse for these people???


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Long range gfs pulls a Sandy with Jose after hitting Bermuda also after making a loop early in the run. What a wild track
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Also hearing a huge wave coming off African coast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
0z Euro still has Jose offshore but it would most likely come back towards the coast because of the blocking high to the east and north.
GFS is way OTS but close to Florida with Maria
A lot of action in the tropics
GFS is way OTS but close to Florida with Maria
A lot of action in the tropics
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I cannot believe how many tropical storms and hurricanes are out there and there are still more to come this year it reminds me of 2005 no we had so many hurricanes
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also hearing a huge wave coming off African coast
That would be Lee
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.RJB8525 wrote:Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb
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