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Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:14 pm

UKMET looks like GFS. Maybe a hair west.

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Post by jimv45 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:19 pm

looks to be like a Nor'easter that can still cause damage along coast, but we seen many of these.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:20 pm

Frank you have windfield map of cmc since I can't see on cmc. Precip looks like could b heavy at times on cmc.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:38 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 Nvg10_12
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:46 pm

NAVY CRUSGES THE COAST !!

Also this is going extra tropical once it hits the colder waters at about 45* which will make the percip and wind field grow.

The is teh GFS - that is one windy set up if yuo ask me!!
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 IMG_0308.thumb.PNG.696d5ef5513018ada733e5e053c73f0d

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Post by carbomb31 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:CMC

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 59bc04494c8b8.thumb.png.945e7e3314173e1992d3f30a4743a810

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 59bc0451cdea3.thumb.png.a1d15b021729aeedd30b41bdb617a175
Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

Looks east to me

@carbomb31 wrote:Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast?  Southern Monmouth county guy asking

Still thinking no landfall. Will come close enough to bring some impact. Heavy rain, wind, beach erosion. Typical Fall Nor'easter I guess you can say. But stronger. We'll see exactly how close he gets.

ur a genlteman thanks Frank!

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:55 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 DJxR4OwXUAAtbro

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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:13 pm

National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:14 pm

Through 84 euro a little east and a tad less ridge to the NE compared to 00z. Lets see how it finishes up

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:23 pm

EURO is close - Stalls it then it pushes east with the trough hmmmm
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 59bc19cac74a9

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:28 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh120_trend(1).gif.a58a8a1136a44b9aafbf3a0397bcd29f

This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:39 pm

@amugs wrote:Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh120_trend(1).gif.a58a8a1136a44b9aafbf3a0397bcd29f

This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

South of the DelMarVa latitude 12z Euro today is a tad east of 00z, but north of that they pretty much are exactly the same and end up in the same position.  A def consensus  is forming on the track but with still 4-5days until impacting the area there is still a cone of uncertainty of at least 50-75miles each way.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:48 pm

WTH??? 2 canes in the east coast

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 59bc2007217d9

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:50 pm

Looks like a FujiWhara dance between Jose and Lee going to happen after 204 hr on the euro

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:51 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh120_trend(1).gif.a58a8a1136a44b9aafbf3a0397bcd29f

This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

South of the DelMarVa latitude 12z Euro today is a tad east of 00z, but north of that they pretty much are exactly the same and end up in the same position.  A def consensus  is forming on the track but with still 4-5days until impacting the area there is still a cone of uncertainty of at least 50-75miles each way.
Still possible landfall or just close at this pt? My local forecast also says ts conditions possible Tues. Nhc has briefings put already for area.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:54 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Looks like a FujiWhara dance between Jose and Lee going to happen after 204 hr on the euro
Rb did elude to a dangerous ec threat from Lee with the setup. I.mean it's like rapid fire tropical systems lol. I'm only follow one at a time plus possible Lee way to far out.
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Post by jwalsh Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:17 pm

Recon is finding 68 kt winds at the surface
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Post by Guest Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:34 pm

@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions. I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds. Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter. Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.

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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:37 pm

Hurricane Jose at 5:00pm. 75mph
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:53 pm

Is the 18z NAM not even running? lol No idea what's going on with these models today

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:12 pm

18z full run out. West of 12z close to obx huge.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
You never know syo it's still 5 days out of course NYC go play it calm it's way too early. I'm surprised they even saying thst. But yes also winter yay.
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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:25 pm

@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
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