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Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:33 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
Yes but 1%? in my 36 yrs I've been through Gloria Bob Floyd Irene and Sandy. Maybe others I don't recall. I can't do the math but I doubt it's as low as 1% now if u mean direct landfall yes cuz most of those did not landfall in NYC except Irene. I do far more like tracking snowstorms cuz all you guys make it exciting and verifies much more often as u said. Here's hoping a great winter.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:46 pm

The NAM and SREFs are absurd lol about all I can say. Monsters. Every single one. How much credibility? No idea. I can say, though, that I didn't "like" (note the use of "") today's runs for my idea of a landfall near the region, though I don't think it would be wise to start thinking it's off the table......yet. Another nail-biting fiasco of a forecast :/ does seem to be a consensus, but as stated earlier, plenty of time for wiggles 100 miles or, maybe more, to either side. Five days is a longggggggg time lmao how many snowstorms, Lord, forgive my blasphemy, have we missed when they were a lock five days out? Likewise, how many surprises have we gotten when we thought all hope was lost? It's agonizing, but unfortunately, it's also part of the game aha

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:46 pm

Slightly west and stronger thru hr 54 so far compared to 12z. Ridge a little stronger this run

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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:50 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
Yes but 1%? in my 36 yrs I've been through Gloria Bob Floyd that destructed my life Irene and Sandy. Maybe others I don't recall. I can't do the math but I doubt it's as low as 1% now if u mean direct landfall yes cuz most of those did not landfall in NYC except Irene. I do far more like tracking snowstorms cuz all you guys make it exciting and verifies much more often as u said. Here's hoping a great winter.
The only hurricane that was impactful in disrupting my life was Sandy. There have been numerous other systems without names that have done more damage then most of those hurricanes you just listed. Thunderstorms that tore shingles off my roof flooded highways and the Nor'easter back in 2006 I believe in October over 10 inches of rain flooded my basement up to my chest to name a few. $10,000 in damage. Those I remember. The thing about hurricanes is that you need the Direct Hit to cause the damage for the most part. At least up here in the Northeast. Obviously Sandy was different but that's once in a lifetime storm that's why I said 1% because that's probably not happening again in our lifetime. Not here New York City
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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 pm

West a bit through 72
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:58 pm

Stronger and west at hr 90

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_wind_us_16

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:00 pm

96

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_wind_eus_17

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Post by Guest Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:14 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:96

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_wind_eus_17

If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:15 pm

Yep gfs back west ahaha. Rb thats a bit concerning those models all show bad hits. But ur right 4 to 5 days out def no lock.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:19 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:96

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_wind_eus_17

If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.  

Yeah lets hope we have this kind of blocking for the winter lol

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:58 pm

18z GEFS coming in very much to the west

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:02 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:96

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_wind_eus_17

If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.  
Can't argue that one bit but woah family friendly here lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:28 pm

Holy smokes slot those look like landfall.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
Holy smokes slot those look like landfall.

It's as far west as I've seen that many members be. 0z runs should be really interesting tonight

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:48 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 12L_gefs_18z

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:03 pm

Jeeze a look! Things could b a bit more interesting if these verified.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:27 pm

We have an eye!!
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Swir-animated

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:43 pm

@amugs wrote:We have an eye!!
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Swir-animated
Still looks sheared on left side, but maybe trying to gain a little since there is a eye seem to be forming albeit tiny.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:We have an eye!!
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Swir-animated
Still looks sheared on left side, but maybe trying to gain a little since there is a eye seem to be forming albeit tiny.

There's some dry air on the west side. Decent convection firing around the center though. We will see if he ingests some of that dry air overnight o if he is able to mix it out.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Wv-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:04 pm

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14304&y=5232&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=8&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:07 pm

18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:18 pm

Okay set aside his numerous name errors and statement a escape to the "west" this is pretty good, he is concerned from jersey shore to cape cod, and if the trough leaves Jose behind then he has a chance at making that bizarre look back to the coast.  Def will be interesting to track this, wish I had one more week off from start the new job as Monday I am going to be incredibly busy but I will be in on the evenings and IF I can get a chance I will go on my phone.  But you will likely be seeing less posts from me just so you know where I am lol

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/jose-to-threaten-east-coast-next-week/yybjrwyze6phmdtard_njml9zqsbqmdj?SearchForm-input=jose%20to%20threaten%20east%20coast%20next%20week
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:19 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 6 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:21 pm

Jpose is now at 80mph, NHC took jersey coast out of cone and has everything shifted east, prolly will shift back west again, maybe even again east after that lol i swear the cone changes more than the models.
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