Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.   Winter can't come soon enough.  

I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes

Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.

Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters

The NAM and SREFs are absurd lol about all I can say. Monsters. Every single one. How much credibility? No idea. I can say, though, that I didn't "like" (note the use of "") today's runs for my idea of a landfall near the region, though I don't think it would be wise to start thinking it's off the table......yet. Another nail-biting fiasco of a forecast :/ does seem to be a consensus, but as stated earlier, plenty of time for wiggles 100 miles or, maybe more, to either side. Five days is a longggggggg time lmao how many snowstorms, Lord, forgive my blasphemy, have we missed when they were a lock five days out? Likewise, how many surprises have we gotten when we thought all hope was lost? It's agonizing, but unfortunately, it's also part of the game aha

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.   Winter can't come soon enough.  

I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes

Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.

Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters

Yes but 1%? in my 36 yrs I've been through Gloria Bob Floyd that destructed my life Irene and Sandy. Maybe others I don't recall. I can't do the math but I doubt it's as low as 1% now if u mean direct landfall yes cuz most of those did not landfall in NYC except Irene. I do far more like tracking snowstorms cuz all you guys make it exciting and verifies much more often as u said. Here's hoping a great winter.

The only hurricane that was impactful in disrupting my life was Sandy. There have been numerous other systems without names that have done more damage then most of those hurricanes you just listed. Thunderstorms that tore shingles off my roof flooded highways and the Nor'easter back in 2006 I believe in October over 10 inches of rain flooded my basement up to my chest to name a few. $10,000 in damage. Those I remember. The thing about hurricanes is that you need the Direct Hit to cause the damage for the most part. At least up here in the Northeast. Obviously Sandy was different but that's once in a lifetime storm that's why I said 1% because that's probably not happening again in our lifetime. Not here New York City

West a bit through 72

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:We have an eye!!

Still looks sheared on left side, but maybe trying to gain a little since there is a eye seem to be forming albeit tiny.

There's some dry air on the west side. Decent convection firing around the center though. We will see if he ingests some of that dry air overnight o if he is able to mix it out.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14304&y=5232&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=8&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider