Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

Snow88 wrote:Never doubt the tropical models

This storm looks to be a normal noreaster for the coast ( More rain the further east you go )

NYC should expect some rain and wind, nothing major

As far as Maria goes, this is looking like a fish storm because Jose gets trapped under the ridge and doesn't have no where to go. When Jose rots and leaves, he leaves a weakness in the ridge. That causes Maria to go OTS. Can it change? Sure but we need Jose to lift out fast.

Sounds like you watched Levi's video last night

Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

what's the question?

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

what's the question?

It's implied in the title of the thread

Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

I lost so much sleep tracking Irma and JOse

rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

Yup great call guys. Model guidance was all over.
Should have realized the WAR has been over modelled greatly this summer and this is what the Ukie and its counterpart the EURO showed.
GFS never bit, trop models too.
Lessons learned.
Never expected a hcane BUT thought extratropical storm would be in the cards for the area.

Onto Maria

Snow88 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

I lost so much sleep tracking Irma and JOse

look at it as conditioning for the winter season...

Fujiwara in effect on the Euro.

Maria goes OTS and Jose pays the coast another visit

Euro keeps Jose strong again. Weird run.

Snow88 wrote:Fujiwara in effect on the Euro.

Maria goes OTS and Jose pays the coast another visit

Euro keeps Jose strong again. Weird run.

No way, Jose! GO awayyyy!

I'm done lol.

The stone must be driving everyone crazy anyway are we going to see any rain from Jose tomorrow for NYC or nothing

Okay, was Jose progged to stall? This is the current situation....will this cause changes?

Helluva storm this Jose. WOW!!!! 10 more days of tracking for a little breeze and some showers

2 big takeaways/lessons for me

1. If Frank and Scott are absent from most of the conversations going on in a thread then IT's NOT A THREAT. I should have known better

2. You can still golf during a hurricane

syosnow94 wrote:Helluva storm this Jose. WOW!!!!  10 more days of tracking for a little breeze and some showers

2 big takeaways/lessons for me

1.  If Frank and Scott are absent from most of the conversations going on in a thread then IT's NOT A THREAT.  I should have known better

2.  You can still golf during a hurricane

 right now the sun is trying to  come out here.. it is breezy... but it did make the time pass(we are 10 days closer to winter), we had some good conversations!!

Jose's bands of rain/showers.





Interesting write up
Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A ship
located more than 200 miles southwest of the center of Jose
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and NOAA
Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or
about 160 miles west of the center, also reported a sustained wind
of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 973 mb (28.68 inches).

Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

So when can we expect the turn to the northeast or are we in for a surprise.

are we going to get any rain???...crap..told my son not to bring his track stuff to school....lesson learned!

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

Apologize for what? It's weather kid. At least you have the balls to make a call. I respect that

Looks like Jose continues to move NNW, definitely a bit west of guidance, but would assume it'll start moving more NNE or NE soon

Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

Why are you grading yourself..one should always reflect and then move on.dont put yourself down...you did a great job..did you learn from this experience ...will you use what you learned from this this in future...that's what matters!!!

[quote="skinsfan1177"]Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk[/quot

It looked bad yesterday can't imagine today

I'm not gonna lie. It's nice out!

skinsfan1177 wrote:Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk

saw the report on chan 7, looked like crap down there