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Long Range Thread 15.0

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:53 am

syosnow94 wrote:IF this were to verify it would be THE ABSOLUTE WORST CHRISTMAS WEATHER FORECAST I CAN REMEMBER IN MY LIFETIME HANDS DOWN.  Hopefully the guys on here are right and the NWS pros are wrong.  But we are inside of 5 days now

 Here it is.
Friday NightRain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SaturdayRain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday NightRain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SundayA 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Sunday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Christmas DayA 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Effie just shoot me now if this verifies

The Christmas day high temp will likely come during the midnight to 6am time frame.

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:54 am

Peeps,

GEFS and EPS, GEPS TOO are listening to our convo in here - and you know what they are doing?? HMMMMMM.....Buehler?? Frye?? Math23x7??
SWINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT?BOUNDARY THROUGH HERE ON THE 24TH AROUND NIGHTISH TIME!!!!

BOYAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!


From earthlight a well repsected Pro Met
We have come a long way based on initial ideas discussed by @Isotherm,  amongst many others. This very model was showing a huge SE Ridge anomaly that had folks on the GWB ledge at some point. Now we are seeing a correction towards an elongated and heavily stretched polar vortex anomaly in SE Canada with deep arctic air and shortwaves undercutting it on the east side of ageostrophic flow downstream of the huge -EPO Ridge.

0* line is NNJ - for LI yuo need a 75 mile shift to get in on some white action
5 days plenty of time - it shifted from Cleveland 2 days ago

Give it more time to correct further SE and squash that devil from Georgia, SE Ridge that is!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 7B351D8D-AC22-458D-ADF9-1DCCCA22E3F1.png.886456648e398c69e08182ae88d7722c

IMo opinion and weenie mind we will SNOW on Xmas and say take that Heat Miser!!!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Misers6

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:00 am

Something I have noticed, and it seems to be more with the EURO than the GFS, is I think the steepness of this front is being severely underestimated by the models. Now, it may still rain for the coastal plain, those details have yet to be ironed out but I think anybody north and west of say, the Delaware River and 287 is likely to see snow on Christmas, IMO. If you look at the EURO Op, Control, and Ensemble mean, they all should be printing out a SECS to MECS for those regions, but because they are sensing surface temps above freezing (but below 40 in almost all cases) they are not showing accumulating snow. I expect this to continue to correct with time, as we now see even the Op has trended between the coast and Benchmark with the track of its low. It just now has to catch up with the thermal profile.

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Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:06 am

Great posts fellas .  Here are the last 3 00z EPS 500mb means.  starting with 12/17, 12/18 & 12/19.  Evolution is apparent.  I agree with Rb in that the coastal plain may still rain, but it becoming quite clear the colder soln is evolving as been stated for awhile now by many of us.

 Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 00z_ep10
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 00z_ep11
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 00z_ep12

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:07 am

syosnow94 wrote:IF this were to verify it would be THE ABSOLUTE WORST CHRISTMAS WEATHER FORECAST I CAN REMEMBER IN MY LIFETIME HANDS DOWN.  Hopefully the guys on here are right and the NWS pros are wrong.  But we are inside of 5 days now

 Here it is.
Friday NightRain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SaturdayRain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday NightRain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SundayA 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Sunday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Christmas DayA 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Effie just shoot me now if this verifies

Screen shot this and every day until Christmas to see what changes occur. Is there a way for you to see what their forecast was two days ago for the same time frame?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:53 am

The Christmas Day storm is going to be all about timing. A +PNA/-EPO ridge as powerful as the GEFS are advertising may suggest the trough be centered further east. This gives our area a better chance of seeing a wintry event as opposed to a mild one. At this juncture, I actually think we're in a pretty good spot in seeing some snow on Christmas (+/- 1 day). It may start as rain then change to snow but those details will not be ironed out until late this week. Enjoy the model chaos for now.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24

One thing that is encouraging is the pattern post-Christmas leading into the New Year looks generally cold. Their may be other storm threats to watch beyond Christmas.

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Post by Guest Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:28 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:IF this were to verify it would be THE ABSOLUTE WORST CHRISTMAS WEATHER FORECAST I CAN REMEMBER IN MY LIFETIME HANDS DOWN.  Hopefully the guys on here are right and the NWS pros are wrong.  But we are inside of 5 days now

 Here it is.
Friday NightRain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SaturdayRain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday NightRain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SundayA 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Sunday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Christmas DayA 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Effie just shoot me now if this verifies

Screen shot this and every day until Christmas to see what changes occur.  Is there a way for you to see what their forecast was two days ago for the same time frame?

I’ve been watching their forecasts Scott. The temps have slowly crept down while the precip odds has crept up. I’ll post the forecast in this thread every morning till Friday. Who the heck is that in the post above me. NEW MEMBER? tongue

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:33 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:IF this were to verify it would be THE ABSOLUTE WORST CHRISTMAS WEATHER FORECAST I CAN REMEMBER IN MY LIFETIME HANDS DOWN.  Hopefully the guys on here are right and the NWS pros are wrong.  But we are inside of 5 days now

 Here it is.
Friday NightRain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SaturdayRain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday NightRain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
SundayA 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Sunday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Christmas DayA 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Effie just shoot me now if this verifies

Screen shot this and every day until Christmas to see what changes occur.  Is there a way for you to see what their forecast was two days ago for the same time frame?

I’ve been watching their forecasts Scott.  The temps have slowly crept down while the precip odds has crept up. I’ll post the forecast in this thread every morning till Friday.  Who the heck is that in the post above me.  NEW MEMBER? tongue

Probably has no idea what he is talking about

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Post by Guest Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:35 am

My man. Welcome back!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:38 am

NWS forecast for Orange County leading into Christmas. Not ideal but much improved since two days ago. Our guys seem to know what they speak of.

Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
Friday Night
Rain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Sunday Night
Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Christmas Day
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Post by hyde345 Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:40 am

Below is long range discussion from NWS Albany:


Models seem to be keying in on the best chances for precipitation on
Christmas Day (Monday). However, the exact track of a surface low
and associated thermal profiles remain highly uncertain. It should
be noted that the 00Z/19 ECMWF has trended farther south/east and
slightly colder overall with this potential system, with the 00Z/19
GFS/GEFs and GEM remaining colder similar to previous cycles. Looks
like snow or a wintry mix across at least a portion of the region
assuming these trends continue, including some freezing rain. There
remains a high degree of uncertainty for this possible storm system,
and future forecasts will likely change as we approach, so tough to
focus on the specifics this far out. However, the main message at
this point is that situational awareness should be increased that an
extended period of wintry precipitation could occur sometime between
late Sunday through Christmas Day across at least a portion of
eastern NY/western New England.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:42 am

Remember when the models were showing this for Christmas time? We've come a long way and they may still be trying to adjust. Check out the MJO forecasts too.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 DQiolffUQAAFX2P

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 ECMF_phase_51m_small

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:49 am

From Weathergun aka Miguel from Ny MetroWx

Created this graphic from the EPS back on Saturday in our article for our clients/members. If -EPO ridge builds into arctic regions, the AO fall towards negative and our sustained cold and winter storm chances will increase.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 EPSEPOAOCroped.png.fb894e2fee594fdc133980642c517d66

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:56 am

If we create a moving average based off actual observations of La Nina in the last few months then one can conclude this winter we'll see moderate to weak La Nina conditions.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Nino34

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 NCPE_phase_21m_small

Guidance insists the current MJO wave will propagate into regions 7 and 8 leading up to and the period after Christmas. My opinion is anytime the MJO gets active the models tend to show volatile solutions in the medium to long range.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Nina_7_dic_mid

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Nina_8_dic_low

December analogs under La Nina conditions with an MJO in phases 7 and 8 is not far off from what 500mb height anomaly maps are currently showing. The SE ridge will bring mild temps this week into our weekend but it becomes muted around Christmas Day as a strong upper level trough pushes east in response to the blocking in the Pacific. So, can we get the baroclinic zone to shift S&E before Christmas so any storm that arrives brings winter weather conditions as opposed to tropical storm? As models adjust to the MJO and the H5 short waves become better defined I think we'll see agreement one way or the other by the end of this week. At present, the idea of a rain to snow event for the coast is where I'm at but this idea can vastly change in the next 48 to 72 hours.

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Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 am

HERE COMES THE GFS BABY!!!!!!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:12 am

It's not much, but it gives all of us a white Christmas!! Pretty strung out at the upper levels, though, so we'll have to see if the energy can consolidate better on future runs. That said, the trough tilted negative much faster, and was well negative by the time it started forcing precip into our region; good sign.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:18 am

The GEM is mighty interesting to me with respect to H5, as it phases energy from a different section of the northern stream in with our main energy. While I think it is too far west with the general placement, shifted east by 150-250 miles this may be what the final solution ends up resembling in my opinion. The differences with the GFS are clear: The GFS simply washes this energy out while the GEM keeps it distinct and then bundles the two energies as they round the base of the long wave trough. I think this idea holds a lot of merit, though again, it is currently depicting the scene too far west.

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:31 am

You have a trough axis over Chicago and a nice PNA in the WEst argues for a more EC Bench Mark type storm

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:40 am

hyde345 wrote:Below is long range discussion from NWS Albany:


Models seem to be keying in on the best chances for precipitation on
Christmas Day (Monday). However, the exact track of a surface low
and associated thermal profiles remain highly uncertain. It should
be noted that the 00Z/19 ECMWF has trended farther south/east and
slightly colder overall with this potential system, with the 00Z/19
GFS/GEFs and GEM remaining colder similar to previous cycles
. Looks
like snow or a wintry mix across at least a portion of the region
assuming these trends continue, including some freezing rain. There
remains a high degree of uncertainty for this possible storm system,
and future forecasts will likely change as we approach, so tough to
focus on the specifics this far out. However, the main message at
this point is that situational awareness should be increased that an
extended period of wintry precipitation could occur sometime between
late Sunday through Christmas Day across at least a portion of
eastern NY/western New England.

Last couple of weeks the first one to blink has lost. Game on?

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:41 am

rb924119 wrote:It's not much, but it gives all of us a white Christmas!! Pretty strung out at the upper levels, though, so we'll have to see if the energy can consolidate better on future runs. That said, the trough tilted negative much faster, and was well negative by the time it started forcing precip into our region; good sign.

Details of baroclinically enhanced mesoscale QPF Prob aren’t able to be seen on the operational this far out. I bet if this happened verbatim the hi res models will start to see it.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:45 am

Agree to both of your statements, mugs and scott. I tried quoting both of you, but I still have no idea of how to do that lmaooo

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:56 am

Math23x7 here is your SECS set up .................BBBOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

GEFS
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Remember when the models were showing this for Christmas time? We've come a long way and they may still be trying to adjust. Check out the MJO forecasts too.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 DQiolffUQAAFX2P

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Nice to have you back at the helm Frank.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:09 pm

I don't know if anyone has noticed but we may see snow at least for parts of the area Friday and Friday night as the warm front approaches. Models have been trending South and wetter with this system just something to watch maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two more.  this may be the year it just wants to snow even when against the odds
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Post by Guest Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:53 pm

THE FACT YOU GUYS ARE BECOMMING MORE CONFIDENT IN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS AND THE FACT THAT THE NWS EVEN HAS US NOW FOR A 25-50% CHANCE OF SNOW DAY 6 and 7 has me fired up.

I’m grading papers during my lunch and blasting Classic Country Christmas music on Pandora. Willie, Merle, Kenny and Dolly. IM SO FIRED UP! santa santa

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:31 pm

algae888 wrote:I don't know if anyone has noticed but we may see snow at least for parts of the area Friday and Friday night as the warm front approaches. Models have been trending South and wetter with this system just something to watch maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two more.  this may be the year it just wants to snow even when against the odds

Al where you've been - yuo and Frank both took a haitus?

Absolutely why? Jim Witt - high energy terrestrial, planetary alignment

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 5a395553a54a1

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Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:31 pm

Is there any mechanism that can stop the SE push of the baroclinic zone? Can this slide further? Or will the Gulf Stream set up a natural limit? Can the neg EPO nosing into the AO/NAO help?

MattyICE
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