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Rocktober Obs/Discussions

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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:21 am

YAAAY, finally a morning back in the 30's, 39.7 right now.Yesterday felt like an October day, cloudy, cool many trees changing with leaves falling.90% humidity and 30.00 steady.LOL, I just cannot tolerate leaves falling on a sunny, 80 degree day!
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Post by frank 638 Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:36 am

I feels great out 52* finally feeling like fall

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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:46 am

K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z. Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:58 pm

@Quietace wrote:K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z.  Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

Ryan,

That reads like an official forecast discussion, awesome! You'll make a great forecaster! I don't mind the cold mornings, just need a little more warm-up during the day. A lot of leaves are falling without changing color, could be because of how dry it's been.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z.  Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.


Say Wha? LOL


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by Quietace Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:48 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Quietace wrote:K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z.  Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

Ryan,

That reads like an official forecast discussion, awesome! You'll make a great forecaster! I don't mind the cold mornings, just need a little more warm-up during the day. A lot of leaves are falling without changing color, could be because of how dry it's been.  
I get that. It is getting even tougher up here with the decreasing number of daylight hours. Soon it will be getting dark at 3:45pm with the mountains.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:29 am

So I have read on other pages that a big cool down is coming end of month and there's also a pretty potent storm on gfs. Is it actually possible some or all set snow? I hope we not talking 2011 here.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:47 am

The ensembles are showing a big cool down at the end of this month. I think if anyone would see some snow, it would be further north and near the lakes.
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:12 pm

Only 10 days away but went from 324 to 240 and holding steady

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 59e3e7619e571

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:52 pm

Mr. Frosty for NW NJ

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Img_2010

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Post by frank 638 Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:54 pm

I know this sounds crazy on my block and on the I 95 I am keep seeing snow plows some with garbage trucks to has snow plows on them to are we getting a surprise snowstorm lol or the city is testing them out

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Post by Dtone Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:36 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I know this sounds crazy on my block and on the I 95 I am keep seeing snow plows some with garbage trucks to has snow plows on them to are we getting a surprise snowstorm lol or the city is testing them out

Ha me too. I just saw a couple snow plows on White Plains Rd and I saw one earlier on Morris Park. Snow plow training or something.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:56 am

Not too bad this morning but it will be colder tomorrow morning..

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_6

By Wednesday through the weekend we're back in the 70's with no precipitation expected. We may not see rain until early part of next week!

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:43 am

Mr Frosty definitely coming to towns near us.
How do they now see Western Bergen County getting frost but right over the Ridge in Passaic County. This always perplexed me.

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Img_2012

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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:42 pm

@amugs wrote:Mr Frosty definitely coming to towns near us.
How do they now see Western Bergen County getting frost but right over the Ridge in Passaic County. This always perplexed me.

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Img_2012

Mugsy, living in Mahwah 35 years right along that Ridge I found that Ringwood ran a degree or two colder on the west side.They also ran 2 to 3 inches more in snow totals on the big storms than Mahwah, just better ratio.It's the local topography my Man!

Great to have a Fall like feel today, cool, windy, cloudy.Only two days then back to warm.Color not so hot this year.It was off to a great start with the cool August but the warm late sept-early oct screwed things  up.Lots of dull trees with leaves coming down.Bummer.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:46 pm

Doc my man thanks for the explanation - I knew I could count on your expertise.

This is the what we need.
Pac wave break from a recurving typhoon
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_namer_49

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_8

You get the PAC Wave break and the heights respond over the top.

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:29 pm

That's a cold look to end the month of October and start November. And ensembles getting stronger with the trough in the East and blocking over Greenland. I have been reading that there's a opposite correlation between the Nao in October and December January and February especially the first part of October. If that's true we may be able to expect some blocking this year which has been non-existing the previous several winters
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:41 pm

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_us_36
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T850a_us_42
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:50 pm

cmc is bonkers...
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gem-ens_T850a_us_41

here is the wave break mugs is talking about...Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_uv250_namer_25
we do not want this in winter. flooded with mild pac air...
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_uv250_namer_42
this is what we need to see to get the cold into the U.S.. the former does not happen at any point on today's gfs after hr 192. wave break after wave break. do not be surprised to see some flakes if things time out just right very late month or early nov.

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:55 pm

the images from my first post are ensembles so late month could trend colder as we get closer which is my thinking right now based on the wave break and strong -nao signal. at any rate we will see a pattern change. my thinking is that it holds for the first part of winter. we shall see.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:47 pm

Deep trough

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Img_2013

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:49 pm

Low solar and East based QBO has a tenda to equal HL blocking.

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:57 pm

@amugs wrote:Low solar and East based QBO  has a tenda to equal HL blocking.
Yes mugs lets hope so. Most mets on other boards not calling this set up blocking. Just ridging over greenland which they expect will be transient. Any how ridging looks to last on ensembles for 5+ days. Lets see if it can hold or re establish again quickly. Ill take that look any day in winter. Strong east coast storm signal there.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:01 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Low solar and East based QBO  has a tenda to equal HL blocking.
Yes mugs lets hope so. Most mets on other boards not calling this set up blocking. Just ridging over greenland which they expect will be transient. Any how ridging looks to last on ensembles for 5+ days. Lets see if it can hold or re establish again quickly. Ill take that look any day in winter. Strong east coast storm signal there.

Just for you namesake pizano!!

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 IMG_0377.thumb.PNG.e85ce5a92865f2a1248c3fcde5262269

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:18 pm

Wow on the MJO in phase 5!!
This is crazy strong.
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Rmm_ph10
Here is the effects cold in East

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 2 Combin10

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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