Rocktober Obs/Discussions

A ridiculous 79.1 degrees, 85% 29.57 F

This storm underperformed up here, only .65 inch and its almost over

Something peeps have to note with this warmth that is so abnormal we have had this massive deep LP systems that have sucked up and transported all of the latent deep heat that Atlantic Ocan has been storing and pumped it up this way. They have helped transport all of the moist,  humid air and brought low heights to the North Atlantic thus eroding the blockiness we had. Also, the sun was very active with medium to high level.flares and Coronal Holes with ejections. Now it has started to sudside so this should help as we move forward.
One thing that is big cancelled out which I can't find an answer to is that the MJO which has a medium strength to strong KW is in phase 5 to 6 which would mean a colder east moving forward but the SE ridge seems to be ovwrrising this with the AL LP which was forecasted to retrograde West and erode the pattern.

YAAAY, finally a morning back in the 30's, 39.7 right now.Yesterday felt like an October day, cloudy, cool many trees changing with leaves falling.90% humidity and 30.00 steady.LOL, I just cannot tolerate leaves falling on a sunny, 80 degree day!

I feels great out 52* finally feeling like fall

K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z. Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

Quietace wrote:K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z.  Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

Ryan,

That reads like an official forecast discussion, awesome! You'll make a great forecaster! I don't mind the cold mornings, just need a little more warm-up during the day. A lot of leaves are falling without changing color, could be because of how dry it's been.

Dunnzoo wrote:

Quietace wrote:K1P1 has been stuck at 32*F since 3:55Z.  Went OVC and .2-.5 Vis as a result of FG. Solid shallow inversion. Eg. 34.4*F at Cog Railway base and 42.9*F @MWO.

Ryan,

That reads like an official forecast discussion, awesome! You'll make a great forecaster! I don't mind the cold mornings, just need a little more warm-up during the day. A lot of leaves are falling without changing color, could be because of how dry it's been.  

I get that. It is getting even tougher up here with the decreasing number of daylight hours. Soon it will be getting dark at 3:45pm with the mountains.

So I have read on other pages that a big cool down is coming end of month and there's also a pretty potent storm on gfs. Is it actually possible some or all set snow? I hope we not talking 2011 here.

The ensembles are showing a big cool down at the end of this month. I think if anyone would see some snow, it would be further north and near the lakes.

Only 10 days away but went from 324 to 240 and holding steady

Mr. Frosty for NW NJ

I know this sounds crazy on my block and on the I 95 I am keep seeing snow plows some with garbage trucks to has snow plows on them to are we getting a surprise snowstorm lol or the city is testing them out

frank 638 wrote:I know this sounds crazy on my block and on the I 95 I am keep seeing snow plows some with garbage trucks to has snow plows on them to are we getting a surprise snowstorm lol or the city is testing them out

Ha me too. I just saw a couple snow plows on White Plains Rd and I saw one earlier on Morris Park. Snow plow training or something.

Not too bad this morning but it will be colder tomorrow morning..



By Wednesday through the weekend we're back in the 70's with no precipitation expected. We may not see rain until early part of next week!

Mr Frosty definitely coming to towns near us.
How do they now see Western Bergen County getting frost but right over the Ridge in Passaic County. This always perplexed me.

amugs wrote:Mr Frosty definitely coming to towns near us.
How do they now see Western Bergen County getting frost but right over the Ridge in Passaic County. This always perplexed me.

Mugsy, living in Mahwah 35 years right along that Ridge I found that Ringwood ran a degree or two colder on the west side.They also ran 2 to 3 inches more in snow totals on the big storms than Mahwah, just better ratio.It's the local topography my Man!

Great to have a Fall like feel today, cool, windy, cloudy.Only two days then back to warm.Color not so hot this year.It was off to a great start with the cool August but the warm late sept-early oct screwed things  up.Lots of dull trees with leaves coming down.Bummer.

Doc my man thanks for the explanation - I knew I could count on your expertise.

This is the what we need.
Pac wave break from a recurving typhoon




You get the PAC Wave break and the heights respond over the top.

That's a cold look to end the month of October and start November. And ensembles getting stronger with the trough in the East and blocking over Greenland. I have been reading that there's a opposite correlation between the Nao in October and December January and February especially the first part of October. If that's true we may be able to expect some blocking this year which has been non-existing the previous several winters

cmc is bonkers...


here is the wave break mugs is talking about...
we do not want this in winter. flooded with mild pac air...

this is what we need to see to get the cold into the U.S.. the former does not happen at any point on today's gfs after hr 192. wave break after wave break. do not be surprised to see some flakes if things time out just right very late month or early nov.

the images from my first post are ensembles so late month could trend colder as we get closer which is my thinking right now based on the wave break and strong -nao signal. at any rate we will see a pattern change. my thinking is that it holds for the first part of winter. we shall see.

Deep trough

Low solar and East based QBO has a tenda to equal HL blocking.

amugs wrote:Low solar and East based QBO  has a tenda to equal HL blocking.

Yes mugs lets hope so. Most mets on other boards not calling this set up blocking. Just ridging over greenland which they expect will be transient. Any how ridging looks to last on ensembles for 5+ days. Lets see if it can hold or re establish again quickly. Ill take that look any day in winter. Strong east coast storm signal there.

algae888 wrote:

amugs wrote:Low solar and East based QBO  has a tenda to equal HL blocking.

Yes mugs lets hope so. Most mets on other boards not calling this set up blocking. Just ridging over greenland which they expect will be transient. Any how ridging looks to last on ensembles for 5+ days. Lets see if it can hold or re establish again quickly. Ill take that look any day in winter. Strong east coast storm signal there.

Just for you namesake pizano!!

Wow on the MJO in phase 5!!
This is crazy strong.

Here is the effects cold in East