NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by RJB8525 Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:41 am

the fall colors are just shriveled up crunchy brown leaves this season
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:08 pm

There is no doubt in my mind that we will see a pattern change beginning early to mid next week. Now that's not saying a lot since we've been plus 7 or so since around September the 15th and we all know that those departures cannot last. The pattern change will probably bring temperatures closer to normal. Which means plus one in this warm climate. The one thing I like on guidance is the ridging over the Arctic regions wether Alaska or Greenland on the ensembles. That's good to see on guidance and hopefully it will have an effect on the polar vortex. I I strongly believe we need a weakened polar vortex this year especially with the incoming La Nina. Let's hope November does the job on the stratosphere so we can have a decent December for once aren't we due!
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:57 pm

What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn! drunken sunny

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 22554810

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:06 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn! drunken sunny

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 22554810

nice about the winery..sorry about the sunburn..it was a glorious day yesterday!!

low temp for this morning was 45 degrees....beautiful sunrise
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2923
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Math23x7 Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:51 pm

It’s been a pretty warm October so far. But hey, maybe we can get the warmth out of the way before winter comes. Of course, next week will see an Arctic airmass try to come in to our area.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2287
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:51 pm

Rain Tuesday anyone?? RGEM says get the ark for NE NJ, NYC, LI and CT

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 59ee5c947b0fd

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12132
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by docstox12 Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:38 am

Mugsy, we need every drop of that rain after this dry spell..04 in the bucket as of 5:37 AM.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7241
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:03 am

Wind advisory up winds are ripping mostly with each incoming shower. The storm produced 9 tornados yesterday and we under yellow for severe storms later and even the possibility of a tornado. Are we almost in Nov or August?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:04 am

The clouds are racing pretty cool wish I wasn't go b indoors in the city till 430 my trip home is prolly gonna suck
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:05 pm

Hmmm, a line of storms, heading toward eastern NJ, but after that, I don't see any more threats. The spin in the Midwest looks to be going a tad NE. Is it more a concern of the front stalling over LI, I don't see the 2" forecasted for NNJ.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by frank 638 Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:28 pm

So much for our needed rain

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2305
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:17 pm

Yep it completely fizzled out non event line all broken. Lucky if anyone sees .10 if tgat.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:26 pm

Storm is supposed to stall and fill in then train but not util late afternoon and eve. Spotty during the afternoon was expected. Sharp cutoffs. Where it trains can see 2-4".

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6866
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by frank 638 Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:49 pm

What a bust I don't even think we will get a 1 inch out of this storm .just bring on the Fall weather already it's very humid out

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2305
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:19 pm

Not much here in NENJ as of about 4 pm

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Weathe10

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:27 pm

Suffolk County seems to be the jackpot. Filling in nicely and coming down very heavy at the moment. We will have to see where the system stalls.

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.7673913043478261&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=413.6827195467422&centery=231.52974504249295&transx=13.682719546742192&transy=-8

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6866
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by hyde345 Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:41 pm

It certainly wasn't a bust in the mid hudson valley. We had a deluge in the poughkeepsie area for about 2 hours earlier this afternoon.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Guest Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:43 pm

Central Nassau County east through western half of Suffolk on LI 2.5-3" and counting. 2.83" IMBY.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by HectorO Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:04 pm

There was a monsoon where I was driving through. Reminded me of driving in Florida. Tons of rain, I guess there was a thin line.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:33 am

The storm brewing for Sun/Mon is looking more intense, the CMC is actually weaker on the 00z (shows 988mb but still has 80+ kt 850mb winds ! Than GFS GFS goes inland over CT keeping the strongest winds over eastern CT and east, while CMC crushes jersey shore NYC and points east. Both give insane amounts of precip.  Anyone have the better graphics for Euro on what it is doing with this system?  It takes a similar track to sandy in as much saying it kinda retrogrades (This will not be a Sandy by any means, I mean lets hope not.) Def go be interesting to track our possible first big noreaster, maybe biggest in a while.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Math23x7 Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:54 am

The 0Z UKMET was interesting to say the least...

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2287
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:18 am

It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Euro_s10
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_pr10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6866
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:58 am

@sroc4 wrote:It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.  

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Euro_s10
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_pr10

Wow on Euro, most intense of the 3. Any wind maps, lol sorry had to ask. Gusts map, I know it rarely plays out but just curious or I am gonna have to get my wexbell back lol, does this look like it could kinda become a hybrid type storm or is it just a trough picking up the tropical LP way down by SA now and merging?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:11 am

Here are the 10m max wind gusts for the Euro, just for S's & G's.  Yes that is hurricane force wind gusts over the eastern end of LI and yes trop storm force winds over most of Nassau and all of Suffolk county. Likely overdone, but a track a tad west of here with even half the wind speeds is significant for our area which is entirely possible.  

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Ecmwf_10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6866
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Snow88 Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:54 am

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum