Rocktober Obs/Discussions
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aiannone
skinsfan1177
Dtone
Snow88
algae888
HectorO
frank 638
billg315
Frank_Wx
rb924119
sroc4
Quietace
docstox12
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
brownie
jmanley32
Dunnzoo
amugs
23 posters
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
jon definite pattern change on the way. much more active with the higher heights over Alaska and Greenland which look to last on the ensembles. east coast storm very possible.jmanley32 wrote:will that system that cuts west of us on Wed give us some high winds? GFS is showing 850mb winds 65kts plus, but theres not a whole lot of precip so would any of it mix down?
And is there any merit to the CMC showing quite a major wind and rain event next Friday? Shows 5-7 inches of rain and again 65kt 850mb winds.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
docstox12 wrote:This is one of the worst Autumns for color I have ever seen.This 8 degree above normal pattern has wreaked havoc.75% of the trees are still green and the ones with color are dull .Just awful.
Yeah, peak color should getting into central and southern Westchester county by now. Was around I-287 and while more color than the city it is still quite green for late Oct. 5 boros forget it, if you pay attention you can find some pockets of color but it is still overwhelmingly green as can be.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
the fall colors are just shriveled up crunchy brown leaves this season
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
There is no doubt in my mind that we will see a pattern change beginning early to mid next week. Now that's not saying a lot since we've been plus 7 or so since around September the 15th and we all know that those departures cannot last. The pattern change will probably bring temperatures closer to normal. Which means plus one in this warm climate. The one thing I like on guidance is the ridging over the Arctic regions wether Alaska or Greenland on the ensembles. That's good to see on guidance and hopefully it will have an effect on the polar vortex. I I strongly believe we need a weakened polar vortex this year especially with the incoming La Nina. Let's hope November does the job on the stratosphere so we can have a decent December for once aren't we due!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn!





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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Dunnzoo wrote:What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn!![]()
nice about the winery..sorry about the sunburn..it was a glorious day yesterday!!
low temp for this morning was 45 degrees....beautiful sunrise
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
It’s been a pretty warm October so far. But hey, maybe we can get the warmth out of the way before winter comes. Of course, next week will see an Arctic airmass try to come in to our area.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Rain Tuesday anyone?? RGEM says get the ark for NE NJ, NYC, LI and CT


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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Mugsy, we need every drop of that rain after this dry spell..04 in the bucket as of 5:37 AM.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Wind advisory up winds are ripping mostly with each incoming shower. The storm produced 9 tornados yesterday and we under yellow for severe storms later and even the possibility of a tornado. Are we almost in Nov or August?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
The clouds are racing pretty cool wish I wasn't go b indoors in the city till 430 my trip home is prolly gonna suck
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Hmmm, a line of storms, heading toward eastern NJ, but after that, I don't see any more threats. The spin in the Midwest looks to be going a tad NE. Is it more a concern of the front stalling over LI, I don't see the 2" forecasted for NNJ.
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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
So much for our needed rain
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Yep it completely fizzled out non event line all broken. Lucky if anyone sees .10 if tgat.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Storm is supposed to stall and fill in then train but not util late afternoon and eve. Spotty during the afternoon was expected. Sharp cutoffs. Where it trains can see 2-4".
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
What a bust I don't even think we will get a 1 inch out of this storm .just bring on the Fall weather already it's very humid out
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Not much here in NENJ as of about 4 pm


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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Suffolk County seems to be the jackpot. Filling in nicely and coming down very heavy at the moment. We will have to see where the system stalls.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
It certainly wasn't a bust in the mid hudson valley. We had a deluge in the poughkeepsie area for about 2 hours earlier this afternoon.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Central Nassau County east through western half of Suffolk on LI 2.5-3" and counting. 2.83" IMBY.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
There was a monsoon where I was driving through. Reminded me of driving in Florida. Tons of rain, I guess there was a thin line.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
The storm brewing for Sun/Mon is looking more intense, the CMC is actually weaker on the 00z (shows 988mb but still has 80+ kt 850mb winds ! Than GFS GFS goes inland over CT keeping the strongest winds over eastern CT and east, while CMC crushes jersey shore NYC and points east. Both give insane amounts of precip. Anyone have the better graphics for Euro on what it is doing with this system? It takes a similar track to sandy in as much saying it kinda retrogrades (This will not be a Sandy by any means, I mean lets hope not.) Def go be interesting to track our possible first big noreaster, maybe biggest in a while.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
The 0Z UKMET was interesting to say the least...
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.




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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
sroc4 wrote:It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.
Wow on Euro, most intense of the 3. Any wind maps, lol sorry had to ask. Gusts map, I know it rarely plays out but just curious or I am gonna have to get my wexbell back lol, does this look like it could kinda become a hybrid type storm or is it just a trough picking up the tropical LP way down by SA now and merging?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
Here are the 10m max wind gusts for the Euro, just for S's & G's. Yes that is hurricane force wind gusts over the eastern end of LI and yes trop storm force winds over most of Nassau and all of Suffolk county. Likely overdone, but a track a tad west of here with even half the wind speeds is significant for our area which is entirely possible.


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions
JB
Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing
Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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