Rocktober Obs/Discussions

jmanley32 wrote:will that system that cuts west of us on Wed give us some high winds? GFS is showing 850mb winds 65kts plus, but theres not a whole lot of precip so would any of it mix down?

And is there any merit to the CMC showing quite a major wind and rain event next Friday? Shows 5-7 inches of rain and again 65kt 850mb winds.

jon definite pattern change on the way. much more active with the higher heights over Alaska and Greenland which look to last on the ensembles. east coast storm very possible.

docstox12 wrote:This is one of the worst Autumns for color I have ever seen.This 8 degree above normal pattern has wreaked havoc.75% of the trees are still green and the ones with color are dull .Just awful.

Yeah, peak color should getting into central and southern Westchester county by now. Was around I-287 and while more color than the city it is still quite green for late Oct. 5 boros forget it, if you pay attention you can find some pockets of color but it is still overwhelmingly green as can be.

the fall colors are just shriveled up crunchy brown leaves this season

There is no doubt in my mind that we will see a pattern change beginning early to mid next week. Now that's not saying a lot since we've been plus 7 or so since around September the 15th and we all know that those departures cannot last. The pattern change will probably bring temperatures closer to normal. Which means plus one in this warm climate. The one thing I like on guidance is the ridging over the Arctic regions wether Alaska or Greenland on the ensembles. That's good to see on guidance and hopefully it will have an effect on the polar vortex. I I strongly believe we need a weakened polar vortex this year especially with the incoming La Nina. Let's hope November does the job on the stratosphere so we can have a decent December for once aren't we due!

What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn!

Dunnzoo wrote:What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn!

nice about the winery..sorry about the sunburn..it was a glorious day yesterday!!

low temp for this morning was 45 degrees....beautiful sunrise

It’s been a pretty warm October so far. But hey, maybe we can get the warmth out of the way before winter comes. Of course, next week will see an Arctic airmass try to come in to our area.

Rain Tuesday anyone?? RGEM says get the ark for NE NJ, NYC, LI and CT

Mugsy, we need every drop of that rain after this dry spell..04 in the bucket as of 5:37 AM.

Wind advisory up winds are ripping mostly with each incoming shower. The storm produced 9 tornados yesterday and we under yellow for severe storms later and even the possibility of a tornado. Are we almost in Nov or August?

The clouds are racing pretty cool wish I wasn't go b indoors in the city till 430 my trip home is prolly gonna suck

Hmmm, a line of storms, heading toward eastern NJ, but after that, I don't see any more threats. The spin in the Midwest looks to be going a tad NE. Is it more a concern of the front stalling over LI, I don't see the 2" forecasted for NNJ.

So much for our needed rain

Yep it completely fizzled out non event line all broken. Lucky if anyone sees .10 if tgat.

Storm is supposed to stall and fill in then train but not util late afternoon and eve. Spotty during the afternoon was expected. Sharp cutoffs. Where it trains can see 2-4".

What a bust I don't even think we will get a 1 inch out of this storm .just bring on the Fall weather already it's very humid out

Not much here in NENJ as of about 4 pm

Suffolk County seems to be the jackpot. Filling in nicely and coming down very heavy at the moment. We will have to see where the system stalls.

It certainly wasn't a bust in the mid hudson valley. We had a deluge in the poughkeepsie area for about 2 hours earlier this afternoon.

Central Nassau County east through western half of Suffolk on LI 2.5-3" and counting. 2.83" IMBY.

There was a monsoon where I was driving through. Reminded me of driving in Florida. Tons of rain, I guess there was a thin line.

The storm brewing for Sun/Mon is looking more intense, the CMC is actually weaker on the 00z (shows 988mb but still has 80+ kt 850mb winds ! Than GFS GFS goes inland over CT keeping the strongest winds over eastern CT and east, while CMC crushes jersey shore NYC and points east. Both give insane amounts of precip.  Anyone have the better graphics for Euro on what it is doing with this system?  It takes a similar track to sandy in as much saying it kinda retrogrades (This will not be a Sandy by any means, I mean lets hope not.) Def go be interesting to track our possible first big noreaster, maybe biggest in a while.

The 0Z UKMET was interesting to say the least...

It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.

sroc4 wrote:It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.  

Wow on Euro, most intense of the 3. Any wind maps, lol sorry had to ask. Gusts map, I know it rarely plays out but just curious or I am gonna have to get my wexbell back lol, does this look like it could kinda become a hybrid type storm or is it just a trough picking up the tropical LP way down by SA now and merging?

Here are the 10m max wind gusts for the Euro, just for S's & G's.  Yes that is hurricane force wind gusts over the eastern end of LI and yes trop storm force winds over most of Nassau and all of Suffolk county. Likely overdone, but a track a tad west of here with even half the wind speeds is significant for our area which is entirely possible.  

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing