10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

It looks like a powerful storm is taking aim on our area Sunday into Monday. The American and Canadian models show a less potent storm but still show plenty of rain. The EURO is most impressive, showing winds in excess of 70mph and very heavy rain. The short of it is the EURO closes the 500mb low to our south. This develops the surface low pressure quicker and allows it to take a more westerly track right up the coast. A GFS/CMC track would mean less wind and rain. There is still discrepancies with the models but the EURO/UKIE seem to have the best handle of this storm so far. I would prepare for at least 2-3 inches of rain (could be as much as 5+ inches in the sweet spot which we don't know where that will be yet) and wind gusts of at least 50+ mph.

EURO Winds:



EURO Surface:

yea frank I think this is legit. especially the wind field on the backend of system. westerly with help from downsloping 50+ gusts quite possible if euro and ukie are right.

Wow wee, Looks like I may finally get a windstorm (we did have a big on in the winter too), your wind man is here. Weird theres that one spot of 75mph in jersey Al being in the eastern quad you would think that would have the highest winds, I know its not a tropical system but usually being on the eastern side is not good if you do not want crazy winds (In my case its a good spot to be in : ) sorry I hope it doesnt cause to much havok, I guess I am canceling my trip to CT to return on Sunday unless sunday midday will be okay but looks no. How long a duration of these winds/rain might we expect?

I'm liking this very much as a possible portend to a pattern that would repeat itself through the winter.Hope the upper air patterns favor developments like this when cold air gets here.

We don't want any damages or harm with high winds but I'm glad for you J Man that you will hopefully get to see a good windstorm, you have been shortchanged a long time.

docstox12 wrote:I'm liking this very much as a possible portend to a pattern that would repeat itself through the winter.Hope the upper air patterns favor developments like this when cold air gets here.

We don't want any damages or harm with high winds but I'm glad for you J Man that you will hopefully get to see a good windstorm, you have been shortchanged a long time.

LOL, im not getting any big expectations as with many times my area seems to be the wind hole, this past winter we had that one that did quite a bit of damage and had gusts in queens over 60mph, but this looks to have that kinda wind well inland which isnt good, that of course is if the Euro is right.  We also have full leaves down here still for the most part so that will only make trees snapping more likely.  I will be in a basement at work on Monday though so I hope some wind is on sunday or sunday night, or it comes a little earlier. Of course if its pouring as hard as it looks to I will be staying inside anyways, the adventurous me would go out my front door at least, if it was 70+ I prolly would not venture very far, Sandy gave us about that a bit higher (here in westchester I mean) and I went out and I was scared to death.

Anyone have the wxbell euro winds? Franks map looks kinda strange with that area in northern NJ, but also sometimes the Euro map on wxbell is just more eye candy, pretty colors lol

docstox12 wrote:I'm liking this very much as a possible portend to a pattern that would repeat itself through the winter.Hope the upper air patterns favor developments like this when cold air gets here.

We don't want any damages or harm with high winds but I'm glad for you J Man that you will hopefully get to see a good windstorm, you have been shortchanged a long time.

Lets hope Doc.  Keep in mind the reason we are seeing this pattern right now is because of the recurving typhoon combined with an MJO wave propagation through phases that promote cold and troughyness this time of year, but promote ridging and warmth in the east during the D-M time frame.  We had the first typhon recurve a few days ago, and a second is in the process of turning north now.  But after that we will no longer have that influence amplifying the polar jet.  It was this reason that is giving us this -EPO(ridging into Alaska) combined with the MJO in phases 4-6 which is driving the cold south.  However, if we get a similar MJO wave propagation 4-6 later in the winter combined with La Nina Pacific we may not be so lucky.

Sorry to ask again, time frame will I be able to get back from CT (2 hr drive no traffic) midday Sun or will it be going downhill by then or before then? Also Frank I know in the past you have done your maps for wind and rain, are you going to do that? I like your maps and they are usually more right than wrong. I understand if you are too busy.

jman this is your typical strong nor'easter. we have seen many of these and lived through them. high impact system. not catastrophic. good sign for winter. this is why I do not get excited about tropical systems because we have nor'easters almost every year sometimes more than once. only sandy was different of all the hurricanes and tropical storms that I have seen and experienced. all the others were like nor'easters. very common  here.

sroc4 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:I'm liking this very much as a possible portend to a pattern that would repeat itself through the winter.Hope the upper air patterns favor developments like this when cold air gets here.

We don't want any damages or harm with high winds but I'm glad for you J Man that you will hopefully get to see a good windstorm, you have been shortchanged a long time.

Lets hope Doc.  Keep in mind the reason we are seeing this pattern right now is because of the recurving typhoon combined with an MJO wave propagation through phases that promote cold and troughyness this time of year, but promote ridging and warmth in the east during the D-M time frame.  We had the first typhon recurve a few days ago, and a second is in the process of turning north now.  But after that we will no longer have that influence amplifying the polar jet.  It was this reason that is giving us this -EPO(ridging into Alaska) combined with the MJO in phases 4-6 which is driving the cold south.  However, if we get a similar MJO wave propagation 4-6 later in the winter combined with La Nina Pacific we may not be so lucky.

scott sorry to have to did agree with you so much this fall but the phase of the MJO when the storm hits is 8. that is cold and stormy in D-M.
with such a weak and late starting la nina it looks as if the MJO may play a more sign. role this winter. also if we had this pattern -EPO, -nao next month or 2 we would be frigid here as the longer wavelengths would allow the cold to get here. there is plenty of cold air in Canada for the foreseeable future with solid snow pack some thing we haven't had the last few winters. good to see the PV on our side of the globe. a lot of positives as we get closer to winter. I know we have our negs. to WAR and gulf of Alaska low hopefully the later will not return and we she does it will be short lived.

algae888 wrote:jman this is your typical strong nor'easter. we have seen many of these and lived through them. high impact system. not catastrophic. good sign for winter. this is why I do not get excited about tropical systems because we have nor'easters almost every year sometimes more than once. only sandy was different of all the hurricanes and tropical storms that I have seen and experienced. all the others were like nor'easters. very common  here.

Common yes, but more often then not, not as strong as this one looks to possibly be, no not catastrophic by any means, never said that if I conveyed that sorry. Usually winds are 30-50mph gusts the prospects of any area seeing 70+ is not the norm for noreasters. Lets hope this does come again with the snow, I would love to be out in that.

Coincidentially we have a tropical entity(area of convection in the deep tropics) that will be pulled north by the anomalously strong trough and phase with it along the EC.  The difference between this Nor Easter and many of the winter ones is there will be a deep tropical moisture fetch so rain totals will be exceptionaly high.  







Al you in no way have to appologize for disagreeing.  I 100% appreciate it.  It forces me to go back and rethink some of the things Im thinking.  That said one thing you have to remeber is that there is a lag time the time from when the MJO enters a phase to the time the atmosphere downstream responds on the order of 4-7days in general.  If you look at the timing of the recurving typhoons and the phases of the MJO you will see they match up with the pattern change very nicely.  Also the MJO you posted above, the corrected Euro (the euro with know biasis taken into consideration) may not make it into 8.  


Even if it does the temp composite for Sept/Oct/Nov is actually a warm phase in the east:



I have reason to believe that within a 5-7day period after entering into phase 8 and or crash into the COD we will see the trough back west and the Ridging flex back up into the NE.  3-5* above normal is absolutely possible, and likely IMO after the 3rd-5th time frame.  This second recurving typhoon is the reason Im backing the warmth up until that time frame instead of by the 1st-3rd.  I have been accumulating data to highlight all of this in more detail tomorrow.

Yeah sroc, this system is at least partially tropical, even if its just moisture, its actually coming from 93L which will be around FL on Saturday. Still has a chance to develop, but not very high.

Lee Goldberg was saying the worst of this storm will be sun afternoon around 3 pm till 11 pm .then for Monday get ready for the wind machine

frank 638 wrote:Lee Goldberg was saying the worst of this storm will be sun afternoon around 3 pm till 11 pm .then for Monday get ready for the wind machine

Okay so the wind will not be a issue on Sunday?  Its the back side that will cause the wind issues, or both will have wind? Of course I will be inside a basement office all day Monday LOL

Yeah Jman it will be tropical until it starts to phase.  Then undergo extratropical transition.  Look at those PWAT values, and the DEEP tropical fetch.

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Jman it will be tropical until it starts to phase.  Then undergo extratropical transition.  Look at those PWAT values, and the DEEP tropical fetch.

Wonder what the good ol' SR models will show for wind in the next day or 2, usually the NAM goes HAM lol

fwiw the 18z gfs is so far east its a non event, i think the gfs and cmc are gonna lose.  anyone have latest ukie?

nam is a tucked beast if it curves into nyc like the euro all those winds will be on the eastern side. still not yet in good range though, 18z is way east. this is 12z.

Wouldn't this event be considered a Sou'easter?

huh upton took down the hwo but its still up for some areas, maybe they are updating but thats odd.

this storm is like a "sandy"part 2 coincided with the 5th year anniversary sunday rain and wind machine on monday...wow

mwilli5783 wrote:this storm is like a "sandy"part 2 coincided with the 5th year anniversary sunday rain and wind machine on monday...wow

this will have nowhere even close to the impacts sandy had, not to say there will not be issues, if we see widespread 50-70mph winds there will be a lot of power outages but the ocean is not going to be a issue (or not a big one anyways) which was what really made sandy so bad. And winds were well above 70mph for many.

I think this storm will be tucked in

skinsfan1177 wrote:I think this storm will be tucked in

as opposed to what?