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10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:23 pm

Well actually there seem to be about 4 LP no wonder this is a difficult forcast.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:24 pm

This is a lot more intense than the 18z and 12z wow, lets see where it goes.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:26 pm

I cross checked, the NAm actually pulls in all of tropical system 18!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:27 pm

NAM is a HUGEEEE HIT, by sunday night some paces pushing 3-4 inches!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:29 pm

Incoming Sandy part 2!!! WTF a full phase is this? This may be headed east though from looks.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:32 pm

Holy crap! And its also pouring oput so those winds will prolly mix down.


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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:33 pm

Nam run is mighty impressive. Looks like the Euro.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:34 pm

Okay so that main LP does go east and hammers eastern LI, CT and east.  Damn, wonder if that has a shot of changing, we still get insane rain look

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Post by Guest Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:37 pm

We're definitely getting more model agreement with each run.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:37 pm

Wow and those are sustained, kinda wish i was able to stay in eastern CT unless it shifts more west then the area could get into that.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:39 pm

Jesus!!! that would have to move literally 50 miles to the west to get those winds into NYC area, wow 80-90+ kt 850mb winds sustained.  

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:41 pm

I think the overall idea though is the winds are go be hella bad, usually these mapos are off on the spoecific areas, a cut off in winds like that shows seems unlikely its not a snow line.,
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:59 pm

Jeeze look at that cut off, that be a kick to the boys in my book, LI peeps you beter watch out!  Please shift west a bit, being in the center is the wind hole lol of course ill be driving back from where those greys are in CT on sunday afternoon lol, 
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:16 pm

Thunder model package from Ventricle which called Irma, Maria and Haavy
This is going to be a bad storm with jet streak over head I showed a few maps above

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 5 MgWeb_WRF_20171027-180000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F01400000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R15km.jpg.041d195c9bbdd217b357402efa21c9e3

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:18 pm

@amugs wrote:Thunder model package from Ventricle which called Irma, Maria and Haavy
This is going to be a bad storm with jet streak over head I showed a few maps above

10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 5 MgWeb_WRF_20171027-180000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F01400000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R15km.jpg.041d195c9bbdd217b357402efa21c9e3
Mugs you think here in NYC area we could see gusts over 60mph?  Even maybe on Sunday night?  Or only on the back end.  I read on a board that the NAM brought all 3 pieces together not just one part.  Hence the much stronger storm.
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:25 pm

If we get then full phase that is being projected the system has to come wst as depicted in the EPS and EURO which seem to be locked in on this systems path. The jet streak is potent and ifbthisnfullmphase happens over the Carolinas then this could rival the 92 Noreaster and be Sandyesque with its winds. So yes we could see 60 mph gusts if this comes to fruition.the tropical entity is again the key component.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:58 pm

@amugs wrote:If we get then full phase that is being projected the system has to come wst as depicted in the EPS and EURO which seem to be locked in on this systems path. The jet streak is potent and ifbthisnfullmphase happens over the Carolinas then this could rival the 92 Noreaster and be Sandyesque with its winds. So yes we could see 60 mph gusts if this comes to fruition.the tropical entity is again the key component.
gotcha, gfs looks similar to 18z but stronger, still not putting out winds like other models.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:11 am

cmc has 3.5 inches by 7pm sun, wow, easiult double that i would think rest of run. frank you may need adjust ur rain and wind forecast up if these runs keep up.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:13 am

dang

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:48 am

Fortunately for coastal regions, when the storm comes on Sunday, it will be nowhere near astronomical high tide. Recall when Sandy hit that it was during the full moon phase.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:13 am

Here is this mornings discussion from Upton.  Sums things up nicely.  


A highly amplified upper flow will feature a full latitude
trough east of the Mississippi River. Model consensus is in good
agreement with energy at the base of this upper trough closing
off an upper low over the Tennessee Valley Sunday morning, then
lifting NE toward the Mid Atlantic states as the trough becomes
negatively tiled. A frontal wave forms along the Mid Atlantic
coast Sunday, lifting N-NW and into the NYC area Sunday
evening.

This system will have deep tropical moisture available with its
origins from the Western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additionally, interaction with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18,
will tap in on additional moisture and energy from the tropics.
This will allow for a warm conveyor belt to set up along and
just off the east coast with bands of heavy rain showers and
embedded convection to work into the area Sunday into Sunday
night. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are likely,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches. While the area has been
dry over the last couple of months, recent heavy rains this week
and the likelihood of additional significant rainfall has
necessitated the issuance of a flash flood watch. Any flooding
will likely be of the urban/poor drainage variety as well as
flashier small streams.

(Wind discussion for the Jman)

The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday.
The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.

Conditions dry out Monday morning with temperatures returning
to seasonable levels on the backside of the system.

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Post by sabamfa Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:00 am

How much of a concern will winds be in NNJ (Wayne in Passaic County) compared to Sandy?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:20 am

@sroc4 wrote:Here is this mornings discussion from Upton.  Sums things up nicely.  


A highly amplified upper flow will feature a full latitude
trough east of the Mississippi River. Model consensus is in good
agreement with energy at the base of this upper trough closing
off an upper low over the Tennessee Valley Sunday morning, then
lifting NE toward the Mid Atlantic states as the trough becomes
negatively tiled. A frontal wave forms along the Mid Atlantic
coast Sunday, lifting N-NW and into the NYC area Sunday
evening.

This system will have deep tropical moisture available with its
origins from the Western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additionally, interaction with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18,
will tap in on additional moisture and energy from the tropics.
This will allow for a warm conveyor belt to set up along and
just off the east coast with bands of heavy rain showers and
embedded convection to work into the area Sunday into Sunday
night. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are likely,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches. While the area has been
dry over the last couple of months, recent heavy rains this week
and the likelihood of additional significant rainfall has
necessitated the issuance of a flash flood watch. Any flooding
will likely be of the urban/poor drainage variety as well as
flashier small streams.

(Wind discussion for the Jman)

The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday.
The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.

Conditions dry out Monday morning with temperatures returning
to seasonable levels on the backside of the system.
Darn no sig wind here I guess per that but that's a lot of rain. I guess I'll have go to li lol. I see it would have to be a bit more west but not by much to bring the hww into the area. Not impossible since New Haven county is in it that's only 80 miles or less to my east.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:32 am

The 00z euro did bring stronger winds sign further west due to it shifting a bit west of right over NYC.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:37 am

Wow, this is getting surer by the minute.NWS has the dreaded green( that is when it's in Dec Jan Feb) flood watches out for my area for localized 6 inches of rain.This is going to be a great event to watch and monitor.LOL, as weather goes, its hell or high water, you are in a dry spell, then you get inundated.
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