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10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:06 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rain and Wind from the Upton stations:

NYC: 3.28" (max wind gust 35mph)
LGA: 2.94" (max wind gust 49mph)
EWR: 4.08" (max wind gust 48mph)
JFK: 3.19" (max wind gust 46mph)
FRG: 2.49" (max wind gust 53mph)
ISP: 3.92" (max wind gust 51mph)
BDR: 3.02" (max wind gust 54mph)
HPN: 4.06" (max wind gust N/A)
Euro had several runs with 60+ gusts for nyc metro and 70+ for LI. Big bust by euro

Sure was, Euro usually overdoes the winds but not by this much, the models are not giving me confidence in using them well for the winter, this year they seem to have been particularly bad with one thing or another.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rain and Wind from the Upton stations:

NYC: 3.28" (max wind gust 35mph)
LGA: 2.94" (max wind gust 49mph)
EWR: 4.08" (max wind gust 48mph)
JFK: 3.19" (max wind gust 46mph)
FRG: 2.49" (max wind gust 53mph)
ISP: 3.92" (max wind gust 51mph)
BDR: 3.02" (max wind gust 54mph)
HPN: 4.06" (max wind gust N/A)
Euro had several runs with 60+ gusts for nyc metro and 70+ for LI. Big bust by euro

Sure was, Euro usually overdoes the winds but not by this much, the models are not giving me confidence in using them well for the winter, this year they seem to have been particularly bad with one thing or another.

Every model has their biasis.  We should NEVER take any model verbatim in any circumstance.  I think models actually did a pretty good job with the system loking at the 500mb scenario and the end result.  Without question the Euro has a bias of overdoing winds in bigger storms.  The euro and its winds are like the NAM spitting out a 60" snow total in winter.  

I think one major thing that everyone was missing from the discussion over the last few days were the Max "sustained" 10m wind maps.  Looking at the GFS and Euro sustained maps, for my area at least, they were pretty accurate in depicting periods of 15-25 kts and periods of 20-30 kts sustained over eastern half of LI yester Day and Eve.  The Max wind gust maps, and 850mb maps were posted liberally but didn't represent what was going to happen with this storm.  The wind gust maps were just that...wind gusts. They are intermittent and only last for a matter of seconds.  The 850's show these large areas of of wind speeds of hurricane force, but the truth is very rarely do we get that to mix down, and if they do they do so its as gusts that have been mixed/diluted from their original wind speeds.  Because of this the vast majority of these maps can become misleading.  This of course is a hind site observation.  The storm took down trees, and left a few without power but in the end was "typical" of a powerful Nor'Easter. Ehh we live and learn.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:31 pm

Euro wind maps certainly over did this storm as did others too.
Would have rather a Nor'easter since it would have brought the NE winds instead of teh SE
Percip the models were dead on with.

My apologies to those who may have felt I hyped this storm. (TRACK 17 I'm manning up here)
It did not materialize for NJ but for NYC east and into Conn it did overall with winds and rains.
The 30 mile jog east from the Euro/EPS was a big difference maker for NYC Metro and Coastal NJ for winds.



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by EnyapWeather Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:06 pm

Guess we should start listening to Track more. Laughing
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Post by track17 Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:14 pm

Mugs don't beat yourself up. These things happen. I have lived at the coast for so many yrs I just kinda saw how it was setting up. Truth is weather for nj. Is very hard to predict because of our geographic location. I really hope your spot on for the winter because you seem to be positive about it. Your the only person who talks about solar activity and have found that discussion very interesting.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:30 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro wind maps certainly over did this storm as did others too.
Would have rather a Nor'easter since it would have brought the NE winds instead of teh SE
Percip the models were dead on with.

My apologies to those who may have felt I hyped this storm. (TRACK 17 I'm manning up here)
It did not materialize for NJ but for NYC east and into Conn it did overall with winds and rains.
The 30 mile jog east from the Euro/EPS was a big difference maker for NYC Metro and Coastal NJ for winds.



No problem Mugsy, the rain totals were pretty close in our area and the winds not too far off.Just goes to show you have to wait until the day the storm hits to really get a handle on what is going to go down.I've seen EVERYTHING watching storms in this area since the stone age and in the winter, you are never sure until you look at the radar that day and see 6 to 8 hours of uninterrupted, non-dry slotted heavy snow.Same thing with rain and winds.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:11 pm

For me the wind was about 35-40 and fairly steady last night. I spotted four inches of rain. So it was enough excitement for me and I think i was on the fringe. 40-50 miles east and it was worse.
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Post by Radz Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:40 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro wind maps certainly over did this storm as did others too.
Would have rather a Nor'easter since it would have brought the NE winds instead of teh SE
Percip the models were dead on with.

My apologies to those who may have felt I hyped this storm. (TRACK 17 I'm manning up here)
It did not materialize for NJ but for NYC east and into Conn it did overall with winds and rains.
The 30 mile jog east from the Euro/EPS was a big difference maker for NYC Metro and Coastal NJ for winds.



Mugs, after the last band of rain moved out i ended up with 3.25"- like you said, models were right on with rain tots, and gustiest winds followed (checked my saved readings) seems that between noon and 2pm i had several gusts in the low to mid 30's - many trees did come down around town, and i can only imagine how much worse it would have been if the higher mph's had mixed down
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Post by Guest Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:46 pm

Tracking this has me anxiously awaiting the first big winter storm. I started to forget how much fun following these storms can be.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:53 pm

I think more trees came down because so much rain weakened the root system. Some pines are especially shallow-rooted and if any trees like Oaks or Maples are sick inside, rotted, all it takes is for it to be "this time". Boom! They fall
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:34 pm

First lake snows of the season breaking out east of the lakes in the higher elevations!
10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter - Page 16 Captur10
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