10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

CMC goes ham. 3-5 inches+. Wxbell does not have good wind maps for CMC but I imagine they are pretty high with a 985 deepening to 979 over the area. That brown dot bordering NYC and NJ is IMBY

Thanks Jman, I heard there might be a few showers Saturday night if that's right but nothing to bad

Hi, I have been out of touch(son fractured his ankle at school this week...nightmare..he is still wearing a air cast on his other ankle he fractured in gym earlier)needless to say we will be hibernating this weekend. Are we looking at the worst of the rain coming late in the day? My husband and continuing our family plans and will be driving home early Sunday afternoon. Sorry if this was asked before..just curious...

Sunday afternoon will begin and go downhill steadily per models.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi, I  have been out of touch(son fractured his ankle at school this week...nightmare..he is still wearing a air cast on his other ankle he fractured in gym earlier)needless to say we will be hibernating this weekend. Are we looking at the worst of the rain coming late in the day? My husband and continuing our family plans and will be driving home early Sunday afternoon. Sorry if this was asked before..just curious...

Heaviest will be from 4pm-9pm. But it will still be steady from Noon forward

High chance of development for 93 L

Another big hit on the Euro

Snow88 wrote:Another big hit on the Euro

Yes and more west

WOWzers, this is one frame the winds are above 40mph gusts for well over 12-18 hrs.

Rainfall is well west, if it gets any further west we wont get the bulk of the rain but those winds to the east will become a bigger threat, also looks like the tropical system was almost a full phase, which maybe is a possibility that the euro is hinting at? CMC kicks it out and look how much rain the CMC gave.

Euro has about 1.50 inches of rain for the NYC area with a lot more to the north and west. The low goes just south of NYC ( sub 980 )

The winds are bigger factor on this run. Gusts approach 60 + on the south shore of the NYC area, coastal NJ and LI.

In the city all day and holy poop euro!!

MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE AND MECHANISMS THAT LEAD TO INITIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A NEGATIVE TILT AND BEGINS TO EJECT...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWED MORE VARIABILITY. THE 00Z UKMET WAS SLOWEST...IT HAD THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AS IT DIGS INTO THE BASE OF E TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT CLOSED OFF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS RESULTED IN THE MODEL BEING AT LEAST 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AS COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS AND MANY 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WERE FASTER AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE KICKED OUT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS LED TO MANY DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRENDS AND WERE BOTH VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF (AND ITS ENSEMBLE IN PARTICULAR) HAS BEEN SHOWING THE MOST CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ARE NOW FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. REGARDING THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND FIRST 6-12HR OF DEEPENING...MODELS ALSO STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH THIS OFF THE EAST COAST. WITHIN THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF LOWER STATIC STABILITY...MANY MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS TIED TO BURSTS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. THIS IS REASONABLE OVERALL...HOWEVER SOME MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE NUMBER OF LOW CENTERS OR THEIR INTENSITY. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST FOUR SEPARATE LOW CENTERS. THIS INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE LOCATION OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH. TAKING ALL THAT INTO ACCOUNT...THE PREFERENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A NON-UKMET BLEND BUT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BOTH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE MASS FIELDS AND MANY OF THE IMPACTS. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS WOULD MORE EFFECTIVELY BE CAPTURED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH A WEIGHT TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS. HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS ENOUGH OF AN OUTLIER TO BE EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

EPS WOWZA

This storm is coming far enough west that it looks like I'll get to join in on the fun. Shame this isn't happening in December or January.

IF EURO/EPS COMBO HAPPENS THEN MOMMA MIA!!

TheAresian wrote:This storm is coming far enough west that it looks like I'll get to join in on the fun. Shame this isn't happening in December or January.

No wed want this inside the BM or else we get flooded with warm atlantic air and rain ARGH!

You guys will get flooded with warm air and rain. This is one of those times where I have different wants. If this thing can generate even one snowflake for me, I'm happy as a clam. However, I'd need a temp drop of 15 degrees or thereabouts so I'm not hopeful.

Wow a part 3
EPS barking here peeps

amugs wrote:Wow a part 3
EPS barking here peeps

A part 3? So are we talking a possibly more intense system than Euro operational?

amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA

Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA

Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!

Backside of this. 850 level and even if 75% mix down YIKKEESSS!!!
With descending cold air on the backside of this beast this will mix down at least that much from what I have learned. 60-70knots is still ridiculous for our area (68-80 mph gusts!)

SREFS - 1st time this year!!

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA

Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!

Backside of this. 850 level and even if 75% mix down YIKKEESSS!!!
With descending cold air on the backside of this beast this will mix down at least that much from what I have learned. 60-70knots is still ridiculous for our area (68-80 mph gusts!)

Why does it have to be the backside damnit lol I will be in a enclosed office unable to witness it LOL, thats not gusts map thats sustained BTW!