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December Obs and Discussion

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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:40 am

Things I like about December.
1) The holidays.
2) The sun is very low.
3) It is getting cold.
4) It is Met. Winter.
5) The semester is almost over.

Discuss onward!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:25 am

November finished below normal for the area. December will also likely finish below normal (or normal).

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Post by mikeypizano Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:54 am

I like it because besides a few last minute jobs, I am done for the season until it snows!
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:15 am

55° at 1:15am in December , it feels so warm out.... May anyone?

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:51 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:55° at 1:15am in December , it feels so warm out.... May anyone?
I know it was actually colder during the mid afternoon thatblast night. Wait till next week when the PV is over the GL. Ain't gonna feel like May.

December Obs and Discussion Img_2035

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:44 pm

Push this 50 miles more SE please or 100 !!
December Obs and Discussion 5ab9f510

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:27 am

currently 34* we had a dusting over night..Smile
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:01 pm

Interesting week ahead. Loads of potential

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:53 pm

Major changes both aloft and at the surface on the GFS over the last couple days. There is less interaction between the Pacific energy and the PNA ridge, allowing the trough to amplify. The TPV has trended weaker as well, perhaps allowing heights to rise along the East Coast. Still a lot of time to go with this one for Friday

Pac energy and wave breaks is where the focus is - EPO and PNA regions.



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Post by amugs Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:57 pm

This will send us into the freezer if it were to verify which it looks like it will! Talkin -7 SD this is before xmas and the week after!

December Obs and Discussion Gefs_epo_06.png.b693db7b66784053c800b95dac24fd1b

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:17 pm

Weak wave to watch for Thursday. Southern areas are best bet right now for some snow.

December Obs and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

Maybe another coastal storm to watch for Friday?

December Obs and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18


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Post by Isotherm Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:18 pm

So far so good with the NAO behaving congruously with my NAO indicators with a general positive tendency; the Pacific side continues to do most of the heavy lifting with some Arctic support. A precondition (most of the time) for good snowpack winters in the coastal Northeast is a more sustained -NAO which precludes the ephemeral poleward bursts of the SE-ridge.

 
Going forward, we have multifarious forcing mechanisms acting adjunctively to induce a recommencement of robust high latitude blocking. My thoughts are essentially unchanged in that I still anticipate the 15th-30th period to produce a SECS or MECS event. I would probably narrow that period down to the 20th-26th. MJO associated upper divergence signal will be traversing the Pacific over the next week w/ resultant RW poleward propagation. Concurrently, another potent w1 hit on the SPV will engender further perturbation and displacement off the pole, as we increase baroclinicity in the vortex. Downwelling of the anomalies coupled with more conducive shift in tropical forcing will produce another very poleward EPO spike with overlap into the PNA/AO domains. I do expect higher geopotential heights to expand into portions of the NAO domain as well post the 19th, with a more negative NAO than currently modeled. The period henceforth should be interesting as far as wintry prospects (both cold, and snow opportunities). The period of favorability should persist for at least 2 weeks.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Weak wave to watch for Thursday. Southern areas are best bet right now for some snow.

December Obs and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

Maybe another coastal storm to watch for Friday?

December Obs and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

oh boy... I am having a Christmas luncheon on Friday love snow..but could throw a money wrench in to my plans.....
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:59 pm

I posted bout this in banter as I thought was too far out. After that frame it bombs out 15 mb to 980 mb on 12z. Could this come nw bomb out sooner and give us a big storm?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:04 pm

This is nam. Gfs came in stronger with the vort as well.This may produce a 1-3 inch event. High ratio snowDecember Obs and Discussion Image_10
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:37 pm

Rayno said there is a shot at a "decent" snowfall for the area Friday into Sat IF as usual the southern piece of energy can get out ahead of the northern piece, will it happen? That is past me at 4 days out, what do the pros think here? Sounds like it won't effect my plans though if it is ending Sat which is good news.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm

by aiannone Today at 3:47 pm

18z NAM looks nice for the clipper over LI
December Obs and Discussion Captur14

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:11 pm

No e snow shower here now and windy he r comes the Arctic cold

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Post by Dtone Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:42 pm

Some drizzle turned into a windswept moderate mix of snow sleet and rain. Must be the front. 40*

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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:45 pm

Plenty of moisture in the area especially Sunday and Monday, but the lack of colder air will be a problem. Temps in the 40s will be a repeat of this weekend, where we see snow on Saturday and melting on Sunday and Monday with mostly rain and a few flakes like this evening.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:07 am

21* with a real feel of 5*.I am working outdoors today I have 3 heavy shirts on and heavy paints on and I am still cold

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:11 am

Some snow Thursday night from a flipper maybe. A inch or two. Also some model support some snow over wwekend
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Post by Radz Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:16 am

19°, 29.20 R, wind 9mph gusts to 16
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:17 am

20* wind chill 4* winds currently 12 mph
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:33 am

22* out on the Island. Felt amazing this morning out at the bus stop.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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