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December Obs and Discussion

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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:41 am

Went down to 16.5, up to 20.1 now. Windy too! But a small coating of snow!!
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by aiannone Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:49 am

12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:49 am

@aiannone wrote:12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip

Hope so, I need some nice snow...
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:59 am

Absolutely freezing outside. Wind chills in the teens. I started a thread for tomorrow's clipper.

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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:22 am

17* for me low and mod burst of snow and light snow now!!
2 Days in a row and tomorrow will make 3 and it sonly 12-13!!!!!!!!!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:54 pm

Right now the CMC  and rgem are most aggressive with the Sat Clipper.  Similar event as the one we saw today verbatim.  Like today's event if we gain more support with other models we will give it its own thread.  For now keep discussion about it here instead of the LR since its only a day or so off.  

December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Guest Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:48 pm

Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Output_qsolEz.gif.11cadde0b2f5e52ed0a28ad339b49d48

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

@amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Output_qsolEz.gif.11cadde0b2f5e52ed0a28ad339b49d48

Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:09 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Output_qsolEz.gif.11cadde0b2f5e52ed0a28ad339b49d48

Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
Will this be another 15-20:1 ratio snowfall? So like 0.1 qpf is closer to 2 inches of snow than 1.
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Guest Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:42 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!

I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter

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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:47 pm

you can add the 18z suite mugs to the list. big jumps on all new guidance. syo I agree. active and cold enough works for me. no one and done winter. 2.2" today.7.2" so far. had a nice heavy burst of snow around 7am this morning. looks great outside.
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:48 pm

I like thisDecember Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Rgem_a10
December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Img_0610
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!

I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter

17 storms at 2-5" per???? Thats an avg of 3.5" per storm x's 17 storms would give me 59.5" for the season. Lets say I end the season on March 17th. Anything beyond that is gravy. That would be 10 weeks from Dec 9th, the day of the first snowfall for me this season. That means I would see on avg 3.5" of snow every 3-4 days a week for 10 straight weeks.

SIGN ME UP!! party

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:19 pm

slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:49 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
Meh I beg to differ. I know it would take the ultimate perfect setup, but I want to see an area wide 3 to 4 foot blizzard. Go big or go home is my motto.
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:23 pm

Srefs!!!!December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Img_0210
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by track17 Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:42 pm

When would this be skins and how much?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:46 pm

I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event
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Post by track17 Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:49 pm

Cool sounds good thanks for your hard work

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:52 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event

Double that, at least, skins. Ratios will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.

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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event

Double that, at least, skins. Ratios  will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.

Yeah I was being conservative I got 3 inches from first storm so this may surpass that.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:18 pm

0z Nam is west. Looks a lot like 18z RGEM. Great start to the 0z suite tonight!
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December Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:22 pm

Peeps started a thread on this lets move all this chatter to there please - it is coming for a tri-fecta in a 1 week span!!


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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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