December Obs and Discussion
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dad4twoboys
1190ftalt
Sparky Sparticles
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SnowForest
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docstox12
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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RJB8525
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aiannone
Radz
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HectorO
Dtone
skinsfan1177
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amugs
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mikeypizano
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36 posters
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
20* wind chill 4* winds currently 12 mph
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
22* out on the Island. Felt amazing this morning out at the bus stop.
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Went down to 16.5, up to 20.1 now. Windy too! But a small coating of snow!!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
aiannone wrote:12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip
Hope so, I need some nice snow...
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Absolutely freezing outside. Wind chills in the teens. I started a thread for tomorrow's clipper.
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
17* for me low and mod burst of snow and light snow now!!
2 Days in a row and tomorrow will make 3 and it sonly 12-13!!!!!!!!!!!
2 Days in a row and tomorrow will make 3 and it sonly 12-13!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Right now the CMC and rgem are most aggressive with the Sat Clipper. Similar event as the one we saw today verbatim. Like today's event if we gain more support with other models we will give it its own thread. For now keep discussion about it here instead of the LR since its only a day or so off.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Guest- Guest
Re: December Obs and Discussion
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.
BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
amugs wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.
BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Will this be another 15-20:1 ratio snowfall? So like 0.1 qpf is closer to 2 inches of snow than 1.skinsfan1177 wrote:amugs wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.
BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
you can add the 18z suite mugs to the list. big jumps on all new guidance. syo I agree. active and cold enough works for me. no one and done winter. 2.2" today.7.2" so far. had a nice heavy burst of snow around 7am this morning. looks great outside.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
I like this
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
syosnow94 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter
17 storms at 2-5" per???? Thats an avg of 3.5" per storm x's 17 storms would give me 59.5" for the season. Lets say I end the season on March 17th. Anything beyond that is gravy. That would be 10 weeks from Dec 9th, the day of the first snowfall for me this season. That means I would see on avg 3.5" of snow every 3-4 days a week for 10 straight weeks.
SIGN ME UP!!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Meh I beg to differ. I know it would take the ultimate perfect setup, but I want to see an area wide 3 to 4 foot blizzard. Go big or go home is my motto.RJB8525 wrote:slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Srefs!!!!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
When would this be skins and how much?
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Cool sounds good thanks for your hard work
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event
Double that, at least, skins. Ratios will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
rb924119 wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event
Double that, at least, skins. Ratios will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.
Yeah I was being conservative I got 3 inches from first storm so this may surpass that.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
0z Nam is west. Looks a lot like 18z RGEM. Great start to the 0z suite tonight!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December Obs and Discussion
Peeps started a thread on this lets move all this chatter to there please - it is coming for a tri-fecta in a 1 week span!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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