December Obs and Discussion

0z Nam is west. Looks a lot like 18z RGEM. Great start to the 0z suite tonight!

Peeps started a thread on this lets move all this chatter to there please - it is coming for a tri-fecta in a 1 week span!!

I would not be surprised to see a minor overrunning event trend wetter for late Sunday into Monday.

12* with leftover snow on the ground and feeling like mid-January here. I've always thought early cold and snow over the Northeast helps with snow chances later in the season. The refrigeration efffect. Let's see how it pans out this year.

9.4 low this morning.

The first of hopefully many single digit and sub zero lows this season.

This morning at Gabreski Airport in Westhampton, the center of the pine barrens of LI they recorded a low temp of 2*

11.2 degrees last night here

27* and snowing very lightly at the Shore.

SENJsnowman wrote:27* and snowing very lightly at the Shore.

Hope we are still in a good spot

sroc4 wrote:I would not be surprised to see a minor overrunning event trend wetter for late Sunday into Monday.  

I agree Scott temp's look marginal for coastal areas but it seems like it wants to snow this winter. as I've said before I will lean on guidance that shows snow in the pattern that we're in. The CMC was the only model showing this system today and it was pretty consistent and it ended up being right.

Def have to keep an eye on late Sunday for an overrunning event.  NAM, CMC, RGEM, Euro all have it to some degree. Nothing huge.  Although HP to our N looks to be sliding off the NE coastline during this time frame there may be enough low level cold to produce some snow esp N&W as mid and upper level energy pass overhead.  As you can see the main pattern will be shifting to a more zonal flow with the northern jets and the STJ remaining separate and oriented E to W instead of meridional like we have had it.  Expect this general pattern into next week. A piece of energy originating over S Tx will ride up over the boundary and move over our area.  This may spawn what Im talking about.  We shall see.  

Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.

3k Nam is decent for NYC north tomorrow. WAA precip usually come in earlier than modeled.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2017121612&fh=43&xpos=0&ypos=584

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.

CP, consult my weather statistics thread post of Nov 26 where I posted the December 1963 weather records I kept.That December the temperature averaged 28.7 degrees!

December as it should be....AMEN to that brother!

Clouds rolling in, possible snow showers, possible snow tomorrow nite to Monday morning and COLD.Yep, December as it should be!!!

sroc4 wrote:Def have to keep an eye on late Sunday for an overrunning event.  NAM, CMC, RGEM, Euro all have it to some degree. Nothing huge.  Although HP to our N looks to be sliding off the NE coastline during this time frame there may be enough low level cold to produce some snow esp N&W as mid and upper level energy pass overhead.  As you can see the main pattern will be shifting to a more zonal flow with the northern jets and the STJ remaining separate and oriented E to W instead of meridional like we have had it.  Expect this general pattern into next week.  A piece of energy originating over S Tx will ride up over the boundary and move over our area.  This may spawn what Im talking about.  We shall see.  

It wouldn't be the first or last time the GFS is late to the party. I really hate that model. The CMC was upgraded and has has been better yet the GFS has been awful.

Flurries here for the last hour 4th day in a row we have had snoe!!

No flurries for me but as u said this is a great December so far what are you doing for having a white Christmas this year that will be out greatest best December ever to snow on Christmas Day last time we had that was 2002 I think we had 5 inches of snow

a hazardous weather outlook tonight for parts of the area, post here since there's no major event

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-180745-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
238 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A light mix of freezing rain and snow is possible tonight. Any minor
ice accumulations may lead to slick spots.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.

CP, consult my weather statistics thread post of Nov 26 where I posted the December 1963 weather records I kept.That December the temperature averaged 28.7 degrees!

December as it should be....AMEN to that brother!

Clouds rolling in, possible snow showers, possible snow tomorrow nite to Monday morning and COLD.Yep, December as it should be!!!

Doc I did read that.

Now THAT WAS A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER. And in Ft. Lee no less, we can only dream of that setup again in these milder Decembers of late.

Was upstate in Spruceton Ny all day yesterday.. Green County. Snowed lightly all day. They have 6-10” of snow cover

Very cool weather phenomenon going on here on the north shore. Temps today soared to a high of 47.6* here and into the low 40s across the sound in Birdgeport. Cold air remained trapped in Northern New England and has since bled down the valleys of CT leading to ZR all the way down to the CT coast as temps there have dropped to 32-31. It appears that air is now bleeding down across the sound as my temp has dropped from 46, to 37 and still falling in just a matter of an hour. Very cool stuff!

ZR advisory expanded down to the CT coast.

8.1

We may make an unexpected run to 0 tonight.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.1

We may make an unexpected run to 0 tonight.

CP, in my way of thinking, having this brutal cold without snow, is like one of your buddies coming over to play poker with your others and he forgot to bring the beer.I'd rather have 28 degrees at night with a snowstorm on the way of 16 plus inches.

Man it is cold. 16 degrees at my home and 11 degrees at work.