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December Obs and Discussion

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:17 am

I would not be surprised to see a minor overrunning event trend wetter for late Sunday into Monday.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by billg315 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:34 am

12* with leftover snow on the ground and feeling like mid-January here. I've always thought early cold and snow over the Northeast helps with snow chances later in the season. The refrigeration efffect. Let's see how it pans out this year.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:19 am

9.4 low this morning.

The first of hopefully many single digit and sub zero lows this season.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:32 am

This morning at Gabreski Airport in Westhampton, the center of the pine barrens of LI they recorded a low temp of 2*

December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Bbb10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:42 pm

11.2 degrees last night here
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:11 pm

27* and snowing very lightly at the Shore.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:17 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:27* and snowing very lightly at the Shore.

Hope we are still in a good spot
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:48 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I would not be surprised to see a minor overrunning event trend wetter for late Sunday into Monday.  
I agree Scott temp's look marginal for coastal areas but it seems like it wants to snow this winter. as I've said before I will lean on guidance that shows snow in the pattern that we're in. The CMC was the only model showing this system today and it was pretty consistent and it ended up being right.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:10 am

Def have to keep an eye on late Sunday for an overrunning event.  NAM, CMC, RGEM, Euro all have it to some degree. Nothing huge.  Although HP to our N looks to be sliding off the NE coastline during this time frame there may be enough low level cold to produce some snow esp N&W as mid and upper level energy pass overhead.  As you can see the main pattern will be shifting to a more zonal flow with the northern jets and the STJ remaining separate and oriented E to W instead of meridional like we have had it.  Expect this general pattern into next week. A piece of energy originating over S Tx will ride up over the boundary and move over our area.  This may spawn what Im talking about.  We shall see.  

December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Flowpatterns
December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Cmc11
December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Cmc_gg10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am

I heard the euro control for Xmas was a big storm I saw the precip map but does anyone have the snow map just for fun. But I know there is possible storm signal too.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:31 am

Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:46 am

3k Nam is decent for NYC north tomorrow. WAA precip usually come in earlier than modeled.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2017121612&fh=43&xpos=0&ypos=584
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:06 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.

CP, consult my weather statistics thread post of Nov 26 where I posted the December 1963 weather records I kept.That December the temperature averaged 28.7 degrees!

December as it should be....AMEN to that brother!

Clouds rolling in, possible snow showers, possible snow tomorrow nite to Monday morning and COLD.Yep, December as it should be!!!
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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:23 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Def have to keep an eye on late Sunday for an overrunning event.  NAM, CMC, RGEM, Euro all have it to some degree. Nothing huge.  Although HP to our N looks to be sliding off the NE coastline during this time frame there may be enough low level cold to produce some snow esp N&W as mid and upper level energy pass overhead.  As you can see the main pattern will be shifting to a more zonal flow with the northern jets and the STJ remaining separate and oriented E to W instead of meridional like we have had it.  Expect this general pattern into next week.  A piece of energy originating over S Tx will ride up over the boundary and move over our area.  This may spawn what Im talking about.  We shall see.  

December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Flowpatterns
December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Cmc11
December Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Cmc_gg10

It wouldn't be the first or last time the GFS is late to the party. I really hate that model. The CMC was upgraded and has has been better yet the GFS has been awful.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:32 pm

Flurries here for the last hour 4th day in a row we have had snoe!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:58 pm

No flurries for me but as u said this is a great December so far what are you doing for having a white Christmas this year that will be out greatest best December ever to snow on Christmas Day last time we had that was 2002 I think we had 5 inches of snow

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:37 am

a hazardous weather outlook tonight for parts of the area, post here since there's no major event

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-180745-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
238 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A light mix of freezing rain and snow is possible tonight. Any minor
ice accumulations may lead to slick spots.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:53 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Funny how some, not on here, are complaining about the cold December so far and all reporting stations are now normal to -1.1 below for the month so basically normal to slightly below, and that's against the inflated 1981-2010 averages which are the warmest ever recorded.

We've grown soft, this is December as it should be, how quickly we forget.

CP, consult my weather statistics thread post of Nov 26 where I posted the December 1963 weather records I kept.That December the temperature averaged 28.7 degrees!

December as it should be....AMEN to that brother!

Clouds rolling in, possible snow showers, possible snow tomorrow nite to Monday morning and COLD.Yep, December as it should be!!!

Doc I did read that.

Now THAT WAS A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER. And in Ft. Lee no less, we can only dream of that setup again in these milder Decembers of late.
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:13 pm

Was upstate in Spruceton Ny all day yesterday.. Green County. Snowed lightly all day. They have 6-10” of snow cover

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:34 pm

Very cool weather phenomenon going on here on the north shore. Temps today soared to a high of 47.6* here and into the low 40s across the sound in Birdgeport. Cold air remained trapped in Northern New England and has since bled down the valleys of CT leading to ZR all the way down to the CT coast as temps there have dropped to 32-31. It appears that air is now bleeding down across the sound as my temp has dropped from 46, to 37 and still falling in just a matter of an hour. Very cool stuff!
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:26 pm

ZR advisory expanded down to the CT coast.
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:29 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017

NYZ078>081-177-179-231200-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1022 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017

...Spotty freezing rain overnight into early Saturday morning...

Temps will continue to drop into the lower 30s overnight as cold
air drains down from Connecticut. With spotty drizzle overnight and
the next round of rain overspreading the region late tonight into
early Saturday morning, a few icy spots may occur where temperatures
drop to around freezing. Locations north of the Long Island
Expressway will be the most susceptible to this. Temperatures
should warm safely above freezing by around daybreak, ending any
icing threat.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:59 pm

8.1

We may make an unexpected run to 0 tonight.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:00 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8.1

We may make an unexpected run to 0 tonight.

CP, in my way of thinking, having this brutal cold without snow, is like one of your buddies coming over to play poker with your others and he forgot to bring the beer.I'd rather have 28 degrees at night with a snowstorm on the way of 16 plus inches.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:52 am

Man it is cold. 16 degrees at my home and 11 degrees at work.

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