Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:20 pm

This whole set up reminds me a lot of last January 7, when the coast got a nice little storm. Seems to be the same type of 2 wave, will they or won't they, type of deal.

Pretty sure last time the short range models were quicker to pick up on it than the long range were. So, that makes me hopeful at the moment. Still a ways to go, but it's a fun track right now for the Coasties.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:44 pm

UKIEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Precip Maps - this is a very nice look - lets see what the EURO does here

by **amugs** Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:46 pm

SLP - pretty LP here peeps. Again need a big boy in EURO and EPS to concur with this

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:05 pm

Euro doesnt seem like it's going to do it

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:08 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro doesnt seem like it's going to do it

BANNED FOR A WEEK FOR NAYSAYING AND BOLSTERING NEGATVITY!!!!!! ADMIN, HEAR MY PLEA!!!! Lmaoooooooooo

by **amugs** Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:09 pm

Alex it was close but not enough - the holding back the energy in the SW hurt this IMO from phasing and getting heights to rise up teh coast for a hit.

So we wait until 0z runs to see what is what well EPS comes up next to see.

by track17 Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:11 pm

We all seem so worried about the gfs and euro but it is possible they are wrong. The nam did real well last winter if I remember correctly.

by **mikeypizano** Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:12 pm

track17 wrote:We all seem so worried about the gfs and euro but it is possible they are wrong. The nam did real well last winter if I remember correctly.

It nailed the blizzard in March...

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:24 pm

track17 wrote:We all seem so worried about the gfs and euro but it is possible they are wrong. The nam did real well last winter if I remember correctly.

Discounting models is how we all get bit in the ass. Every model has to be taken into account in forecasting the possibilities of what is to come.

by track17 Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm

Hence what I am trying to say but we only seem concerned about the euro or gfs. That was the point I was trying to make

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:00 pm

Hey guys been tough few weeks for me see banter for explanation. I honestly do not see this happening yeah yeah ban me for nay saying but every time there is some change about to come it doesn't. Not any colder today than it's been where's that bitter cold? The models mostly agree this is a miss except nam and ukie. Are they right...possibly but they are often wrong. We can hope. Snow would def brighten my spirits. If I can see mood flakes sat I'd b happy but I'm not banking on it. Anything more is just icing. I never bank on snow till mid Jan here anymore anyways.

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:00 pm

track17 wrote:Hence what I am trying to say but we only seem concerned about the euro or gfs. That was the point I was trying to make

The concern is probably looking for model agreement, of course if the models all agreed we wouldn’t need forecasters to decipher them for us. Lol

by **mikeypizano** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:07 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
track17 wrote:Hence what I am trying to say but we only seem concerned about the euro or gfs. That was the point I was trying to make

The concern is probably looking for model agreement, of course if the models all agreed we wouldn’t need forecasters to decipher them for us. Lol

Only time they all agree is when they show NOTHING...

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:12 pm

Srefs are east

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:19 pm

Lol and sref are usually the ones to show the goods.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:57 pm

If the nam is correct with the intensity like its showing can someone explain the latent heat release could push the storm north more

by **amugs** Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:12 pm

FROM JB's good friend on another board:

JB TEXTED / SAYS 3 TO 6 I 95 EAST AND THINKS THIS COULD COME WEST.

BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING.

by **mikeypizano** Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:13 pm

amugs wrote:FROM JB's good friend on another board:

JB TEXTED / SAYS 3 TO 6 I 95 EAST AND THINKS THIS COULD COME WEST.

BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING.

I thought JB was usually wrong?

by **frank 638** Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:15 pm

If we get 3 to 6 inches and I hope he is right I will take it and I will be very happy I mean we will all be happy us snow weenies

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:32 pm

There are
subtle enough differences in the model suite as well as with
their ensemble members to raise concern for a potential snowfall
event late Friday night into Saturday. Solutions generally
point toward a glancing blow with the 12Z GFS the farthest
east with its precipitation, mainly across far eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. The ECMWF and NAM are farther
west with a potential light snowfall event back as far west as
the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. This all hinges on the
amplification and progression of the deepening upper trough.
Often, in past winters we have seen the models being too far
south with the precipitation as strong enough jet dynamics have
allowed for some adjustment of the low track to the NW. That
being the case, the GGEM appears to be an outlier with a heavy
snowfall event across the region. At this time, the forecast
calls for a light snowfall event with the potential for 1-2
inches of snowfall across eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut. However, trends in the guidance the next 24 hours
will probably be a good signal in which way we are headed.

by **hyde345** Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:35 pm

The GFS, Euro and even 18Z nam have this east with little impact. I'm expecting nothing at this point.

by **mikeypizano** Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:50 pm

hyde345 wrote:The GFS, Euro and even 18Z nam have this east with little impact. I'm expecting nothing at this point.

Next run will be west

by **amugs** Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:10 pm

Report post
Posted 6 minutes ago
18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:
Great disco by Upton and definitely being taken into consideration for my update

BOX NWS disco... Throwing in a mention regarding the recently limited sounding launches in Alaska affecting model performance.

Still lots of uncertainty regarding how far northwest deep moisture
and lift track from offshore frontal wave. Most of the deterministic
guidance including 12z NAM/GFS/EC/Ukmet and GEFS ensembles place
sharp qpf gradient over RI and southeast MA. The 12z Euro ensembles
are a bit farther inland from southeast CT across RI into eastern
MA. Keep in mind average model error at this time range (60-84 hrs)
is about 125 miles! Thus risk for accumulating snow ranges from
eastern CT to the Worcester Hills into northeast MA (northwest edge
of envelope of solutions) to offshore (eastern most edge of
solutions), including areas in between. To further complicate the
forecast blyr and surface temps may be too warm for an all snow
event over the Cape and Islands, so rain may lower the snowfall
potential here. Therefore lots of uncertainty continues. Hence
important to keep this portion of the forecast probabilistic rather
than deterministic as all potential outcomes remain in play.

As previous forecaster mention it will come down to trough
amplification entering the Great Lakes late Sat/Sat night. Tracing
back the jet energy that will carve out this mid level trough was
coming onshore to Alaska this morning. Unfortunately 12z upper air
soundings are no longer available across the state of Alaska. This
may result in a different model trend beginning with tonight`s 00z
guidance as this jet energy becomes better sampled by more 00z upper
air soundings along with increased aircraft data at 00z vs 12z

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:27 pm

amugs wrote:
Report post
Posted 6 minutes ago
18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:
Great disco by Upton and definitely being taken into consideration for my update

BOX NWS disco... Throwing in a mention regarding the recently limited sounding launches in Alaska affecting model performance.

Still lots of uncertainty regarding how far northwest deep moisture
and lift track from offshore frontal wave. Most of the deterministic
guidance including 12z NAM/GFS/EC/Ukmet and GEFS ensembles place
sharp qpf gradient over RI and southeast MA. The 12z Euro ensembles
are a bit farther inland from southeast CT across RI into eastern
MA. Keep in mind average model error at this time range (60-84 hrs)
is about 125 miles! Thus risk for accumulating snow ranges from
eastern CT to the Worcester Hills into northeast MA (northwest edge
of envelope of solutions) to offshore (eastern most edge of
solutions), including areas in between. To further complicate the
forecast blyr and surface temps may be too warm for an all snow
event over the Cape and Islands, so rain may lower the snowfall
potential here. Therefore lots of uncertainty continues. Hence
important to keep this portion of the forecast probabilistic rather
than deterministic as all potential outcomes remain in play.

As previous forecaster mention it will come down to trough
amplification entering the Great Lakes late Sat/Sat night. Tracing
back the jet energy that will carve out this mid level trough was
coming onshore to Alaska this morning. Unfortunately 12z upper air
soundings are no longer available across the state of Alaska. This
may result in a different model trend beginning with tonight`s 00z
guidance as this jet energy becomes better sampled by more 00z upper
air soundings along with increased aircraft data at 00z vs 12z

Next thing we know Chicago is predicted to get three feet of snow ahaha you can't make this up, honest to god you can't lmao

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:49 pm

0z NAM rolling

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:17 pm

Definitely a bit more amped than 18z through 39. Will it be west though?

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:25 pm

looks like its going to be east.

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