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Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:44 pm

NAM once again coming in HOT! Man if only we can get some support from the others

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:NAM once again coming in HOT!  Man if only we can get some support from the others

Doesn't look like it even glances coast to me, am I missing something?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:49 pm

[quote="sroc4"]NAM once again coming in HOT!  Man if only we can get some support from the others.

Nam looks amazing didn't the navy model look good and jma as well.

Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th - Page 4 Img_0111
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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:59 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:NAM once again coming in HOT!  Man if only we can get some support from the others

Doesn't look like it even glances coast to me, am I missing something?

It's about to phase with the northern low

A lot of moisture coming up on the Nam
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:00 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:NAM once again coming in HOT!  Man if only we can get some support from the others

Doesn't look like it even glances coast to me, am I missing something?

It's about to phase with the northern low

A lot of moisture coming up on the Nam

Remember something: I am a landscaper, not a weather man, so you got to explain all this stuff nice and slow... Laughing
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Post by track17 Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:02 pm

Yea I don't get those moisture maps I like the maps that show the total snowfall better. Easier for a dummy like me to read

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:02 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:NAM once again coming in HOT!  Man if only we can get some support from the others

Doesn't look like it even glances coast to me, am I missing something?

You must only be looking at the surface.   If you just looked at this then yes at first glance it appears not even close:

Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th - Page 4 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_52


However;  If you look at 500mb this is where all the energy is that is leading to what you see precip wise on the surface.  The yellow and orange in the area I have circled in blue is what gives you the surface look above.  BUT there is a bundle of energy being held back around the Gulf coast, and a strong s/w is digging into the Tennessee valley.  More than likely if the NAM went out further these two pieces of energy would phase and boom goes a surface LP.

Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th - Page 4 Nam_bb10


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:04 pm

Aaah ok, I just look at snow maps and see if I will be working... Wink
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:13 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:Aaah ok, I just look at snow maps and see if I will be working... Wink

When you watch a football game or a hockey game do you just flip on the TV to see the score at the end of each quarter?  Or do you enjoy watching the game itself? I don't know about you but I enjoy the in game analysis of how my team is doing compared to the opponents; what's been working, what hasn't, and what we need to do to get the win.  If you just want the half time score check back Thursday morning.  And if you want the final score check back Sat morning.  told ya

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:23 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Aaah ok, I just look at snow maps and see if I will be working... Wink

When you watch a football game or a hockey game do you just flip on the TV to see the score at the end of each quarter?  Or do you enjoy watching the game itself?  I don't know about you but I enjoy the in game analysis of how my team is doing compared to the opponents; what's been working, what hasn't, and what we need to do to get the win.  If you just want the half time score check back Thursday morning.  And if you want the final score check back Sat morning.  told ya

I don't like sports so nope. Laughing
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:52 pm

0z GFS is a complete miss. Damn
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:14 pm

The 0Z CMC sure was something....just too bad that it is: 1) an outlier and 2) not in short range yet

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:19 pm

0z CMC

Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th - Page 4 Gem_asnow_neus_18

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:49 am

Model Rundown CMC UK met navgem all shifted considerably West. 6x GFS is west of 0 0 Z. nam looks to be focusing on a later wave which would affect us later Saturday into Sunday euro operational is West with minimal impacts EPS is west of operational. There's still a lot to be resolved with the forecast going forward from Friday night through Sunday as models are having a tough time focusing on which wave to key on. we will probably have resolution on this in the next 24 hours.
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:52 am

I think models are going to have a tough time with this upcoming pattern so I wouldn't get too high or too low or too confident until we're inside of 48 hours. What a difference a year makes or the last several years as we finally have something to track early in winter
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:21 am

The 6 z gefs are considerably west of 00Z.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:45 am

how's the NAM doing today? hot or cold?
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:56 am

@RJB8525 wrote:how's the NAM doing today? hot or cold?

Not out yet
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:21 am

@RJB8525 wrote:how's the NAM doing today? hot or cold?

You mean the NOT A MODEL? Wink
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:31 am

Precip is further west at hour 57 compared to past runs

This looks really good on the Nam
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:34 am

Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th - Page 4 Screen11

Pretty neat thing Accuweather added.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:44 am

Nam needs 1 more jump west

Big jump west on the Nam
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:47 am

Accumulating snow down gets to the coast

Great run
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:48 am

@Snow88 wrote:Accumulating snow down gets to the coast

Great run
Agreed however it's focusing on the last wave which the other models have not picked up on still got to take into consideration that it is the 84 hour nam
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:55 am

Shift it west by around 50 miles so I get something, and I will be a happy penguin...
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