Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:22 pm

aiannone wrote:WOW!

Ah big warmup coming I see. Shocked

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:27 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:WOW!
Ah big warmup coming I see.

Hopefully the SAM is a bit warmer lol

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:11 am

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:WOW!
Ah big warmup coming I see.
Hopefully the SAM is a bit warmer lol

After reading about this morning’s model runs in the Mothrazilla thread, it may be time to go back to the SAM. Lol.
Well it looks to stay cold next week but seasonably so. Maybe temps in the 30s and low 40s will just be more conducive to a storm than these teens and low 20s. These deep cold dry air masses often don’t produce in the snow department. Long range I think there are a couple threats next week, maybe around the 1/9 time frame and then 1/12.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:22 am

Actually I read this morning that the SAM formed Thursdays storm off Nova Scotia and it rode down the coast to the Bahamas. It becomes a cat 2 hurricane once it reaches the Keys.

There may be a few tweeks still needed to get the SAM adapted to the northern hemisphere. Until then I don't think anyone should take this model seriously.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:01 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Actually I read this morning that the SAM formed Thursdays storm off Nova Scotia and it rode down the coast to the Bahamas. It becomes a cat 2 hurricane once it reaches the Keys.

There may be a few tweeks still needed to get the SAM adapted to the northern hemisphere. Until then I don't think anyone should take this model seriously.

Lmao!

The reverse Coriolois Effect is playing havoc with its data analysis.

by **Snow88** Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:22 pm

The models barely have a warmup going into mid January

by **Snow88** Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:28 pm

Don Sutherland

January looks to at least rival December with a cold anomaly. The possibility of a mean January temperature below 30.0° for the first time since January 2015 is certainly there.

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:34 pm

If we get a decent snowpack, it might be around for the entire month

by **amugs** Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:52 pm

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Off15_temp

CPC when was he last tiem they went like this for a month temps??Cold???

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:29 pm

Next up a WAA storm or an overrunner - Doug Snow said this last week in a write up on a board

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:42 pm

Well with storm coming into focus is anybody hearing a possible ice and snow event coming Monday night Tuesday morning?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:45 pm

jimv45 wrote:Well with storm coming into focus is anybody hearing a possible ice and snow event coming Monday night Tuesday morning?

That's the storm amugs is referring to with his last post

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:46 pm

Ok thanks Frank got it.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:03 pm

jimv45 wrote:Well with storm coming into focus is anybody hearing a possible ice and snow event coming Monday night Tuesday morning?

N&W FTW with this one - typical Nina storm here with transition

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24

700 layer cold
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_T700_neus_23

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_T700_neus_24

850 warm up

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_T850_neus_23

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_T850_neus_24

SNOWFALL

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 20 Gfs_asnow24_neus_22

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:17 pm

Yea mugs with some freezing rain and sleet to boot this could get ugly with that cold ground.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:24 pm

yep current forecast for Monday is Snow/Freezing rain..not fun

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:26 pm

With a deep snow pack along the coast expect this one to likely trend colder.

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:32 pm

sroc4 wrote:With a deep snow pack along the coast expect this one to likely trend colder.

And ice surrounding the island along with cold water temps

by **amugs** Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:With a deep snow pack along the coast expect this one to likely trend colder.

I concur - teh feedback will hold these temp at the BL down - it will be a very bad possible situation in the making.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:57 pm

Looks like ugly ice storm NYC and N & W, at least it wont be sub 960mb with 50 mpoh winds that would be crushing. Currently a 2% chance by frank lol

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:43 am

One thing at a time i know, lol, but Models trending a bit colder for monday. Expect it to trend even colder with fresh snowpack and frozen bodies of water around the coast! Gonna halt that warm front!

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:33 am

NWS has us pretty much all snow for this one.It's a warm storm.Could be where we catch up to the shore and Island folks a bit.

Also, Goldberg calls for a "January Thaw" mid month.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:34 am

Current forecast from Upton for NLI:

Monday

A chance of snow after 7am, mixing with rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night

Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:34 am

mine changed to snow...for now

Monday: A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

by Guest Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:54 am

sroc4 wrote:With a deep snow pack along the coast expect this one to likely trend colder.

100% agree Scott

by **billg315** Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:05 am

I don’t know. I sense heavy snow from interior NJ to the LHV and pouring RAIN on Long Island. Haha. Laughing

j/k

by **amugs** Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:12 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS has us pretty much all snow for this one.It's a warm storm.Could be where we catch up to the shore and Island folks a bit.

Also, Goldberg calls for a "January Thaw" mid month.

Yes of course he would he is a warmisist.Did he call the cold snap? Most likely not. I am surprised Mike isn't harping in this in here.
Every cold snap has had a snap back 1993-94, 77-77,95-96, so it will thaw. Is it 50* or 40* for the thaw we wil see.

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