NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 16.0

+44
snowday111
HectorO
Grselig
essexcountypete
Snow88
mwilli5783
WeatherBob
NjWeatherGuy
Dunnzoo
jake732
aiannone
crippo84
bobjohnsonforthehall
Scullybutcher
algae888
dsix85
dkodgis
sroc4
emokid51783
Math23x7
Sanchize06
docstox12
billg315
oldtimer
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
Quietace
SENJsnowman
lglickman1
hyde345
MattyICE
Carter bk
RJB8525
jimv45
amugs
GreyBeard
weatherwatchermom
SoulSingMG
nutleyblizzard
mikeypizano
rb924119
frank 638
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
48 posters

Page 3 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:59 am

The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21308
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:18 am

From what you said Frank, I won’t even bother transferring gas from the 5 gal to the 1 gal can...

mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Join date : 2017-01-05

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:25 am

People will be jumping off cliffs again
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by RJB8525 Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:27 am

Models give you very little reason to believe these days
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:30 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 B88e7b10
Latest EURO control run shows the worst case scenario (or best) depending on your point of view. Remember folks just eye candy at this point!

This is yesterdays Euro Control and not significant at this point but what I did love about this was the positioning of the low would most likely bury most of our area and give the southeast New England coastal areas (Red Sox Suck, the cape, RI and eastern CT) a snow to rain scenario. Love those just for spite.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.  

Speaking of no Atlantic blocking Frank. So many on here were talking about how we would have an actual -NAO this winter for once. Where is it? I don’t remember a time on this forum where so many predictions and forecasts busted. You come on here and are accurate and conservative which is good. MANY others come on and hype the hell out of patterns, storms etc; Some only post once in awhile with all these fancy words to sound so knowledgeable then things don’t work out and they are NEVER here to explain why they were wrong which is OFTEN.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Carter bk Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:15 am

Euro today will bring it right back like they say so much going on in the atmosphere for models to digest

Carter bk

Posts : 73
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-12-07

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:18 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.  

Speaking of no Atlantic blocking Frank.  So many on here were talking about how we would have an actual -NAO this winter for once.  Where is it?  I don’t remember a time on this forum where so many predictions and forecasts busted.  You come on here and are accurate and conservative which is good.  MANY others come on and hype the hell out of patterns, storms etc;  Some only post once in awhile with all these fancy words to sound so knowledgeable then things don’t work out and they are NEVER here to explain why they were wrong which is OFTEN.

I can't speak for others, Jim. I did not bother with a Winter Outlook this year. Not because I did not have the time but I find seasonal outlooks to be inaccurate. There are too many moving pieces to cover and it only takes one you did not call accurately to throw your entire forecast into a dumpster. We actually did have a period of a -NAO, I believe late November to early December, which lead to a minor snowfall but it was still nowhere near the high latitude blocking we saw in El Nino of 2010. Predicting the NAO is not an easy feat and often times you have to look into the Stratosphere to understand where our NAO will trend in the coming weeks and months.

Luckily we do not always need a -NAO to get a big storm. In fact, all our big storms from 2011 to 2017 did not have the type of -NAO we saw in 2009-2010. It was either weak or non-existent. Maybe they were fast moving storms but they still managed to dump a lot of snow in a short period of time. A favorable Pacific, which is what I am hoping for January 4th-5th storm, will suffice. Models show the PNA ridge and the critical 500mb upper level pieces but last night they did not come together like we wanted them to. A Pacific gives us the pieces while the Atlantic helps glue them together BUT not all the time (as described).

A word of advice to every member on this forum is to learn, understand, and appreciate the long range forecasts you read on here. Whether it's from me, Scott, Isotherm, rb, etc. we do put in time and do our best not to hype a specific event or pattern. It's hard laying out the details without showing some excitement. Or else, what's the point of even writing? I write blogs because they excite me and I like the science behind the what drives our weather. That being said, you have to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt no matter how 'accurate' you feel the author is. I'll admit the chances of them not panning out is more likely than coming to fruition. It's just the way it is with weather. Often times, it is unpredictable. Once you change your mindset then when events or pattern changes don't happen you will not feel let down. Maybe you will appreciate, or humble yourself, more.

Just my .02.






_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21308
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:42 am

Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by oldtimer Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:46 am

Excellent CP. weather 101

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:55 am

All very true. I made this very point a couple days ago. For specific storm forecasts don’t count on anything until it shows up in the forecast inside of 5 days (3 more realistically). One or two weeks out certain pattern changes can be discerned which may then tell us an environment is more, or less, favorable for a storm. But nothing more definitive than that. This doesn’t mean we can’t have fun discussing POSSIBILITIES and tracking those systems that do stay on the models, but as Frank says, you have to keep your mindset realistic. Nothing 7-10 days out is more than a coin flip.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4524
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:59 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.

Professor CP

EXCELLENT analysis.And if I may indulge your patience, I would like to add that even when a big storm is forecast a DAY before, nothing is set in concrete until you see on the radar as the storm begins at least 8 hours of 1 to 2 inch plus rates of snowfall.I've seen dry slots, substinanace, transferals of energy etc etc turn a 12 inch plus snowstorm into a 4 inch or less.The long range models are looking through a glass darkly a week out.look at your own risk,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8570
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:03 am

Well stated by Frank and CP.
A mouse can far in Siberia and the whole high latitude pattern goes to pot is what one pro met once said theblate and great Norm McDonald.
Being fesicious but the point is the amazing fluid dynamic we call weather is just so unpredictable at times. Look I thought the NAO would be mostly Negative for December as well as the AO. Package wave breaks galore with a massive epo and all of this latent heat being transported into the Arctic was a sign tome and others that it would translate into one. Did it happen, it did from the end of November to the 2nd wee of Dec. After that it was positive but not by much, like .5 to 1. The AO on the other hand has has pieces and the polar vortex slam us but the indicators are still about Neutral.
The winter and tropical cyclones are so hard to call, so may variable, we try our best with the tools and knowledge and technology we have (some pay for). It is is a hobby and passion. We do a very good, excellent job here discussing this science IMO.
Now let's get some.more white gold tomorrow and hopefully the Atlantic will help us out by the smidgen for next week's storm. Triple phasing storms ala 1993 are even to the pros one huge headache.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:16 am

Mugsy, you, Frank, Doc, rb and others do a great job taking the time to post these long range models.This is a very complicated science with so many variables that change quickly.In my mind, it is very hard to write a computer program that , at this juncture anyway, can accurately predict a week or more out what exactly will happen.A this stage they will indicate something is brewing, and the reader must be aware that models are for guidnace purposes only, a chestnut Bill Evans came up with which I totally agree with.Thanks to all the long range crew for their time and effort in advancing the science of long range forecasting.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8570
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.

Totally agree CP. my point is NOT frustration at the LR panning out. I’ve been around long enough to know it seldom does. My frustration IS when folks make bold statements about the LR and things that WILL happen and then when they DONT these same individuals never offer an explanation. They just hide. As far as this NEXT potential storm NOT ONE of our pros on here have hyped anything yet.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jimv45 Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:19 am

The way I have gone for years with storms is when i see it I believe it!  Its great work that the people do on here and the weather is so unpredictable.    The models are used as a tool to make a forecast and it up to the weather people to put it all together and i think they do a fine job on here.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:31 am

And Frank thanks for the response.  You specifically and Scott have been very cautious and conservative with your forecasts which we all appreciate.
When someone explains why something may happen and in some cases emphatically say it will, it is equally as helpful to explain why when it doesn’t.  That’s my complaint.  

As far as this next threat I don’t believe there is anyone on here who believes the snow maps will verify 8 days out.  If they do shame on them.  I’m like CP. I’ll expect a dusting.

This place has the best forecasters bar none.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jimv45 Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:37 am

Syossnow94 I see people that come back here to explain why it didn't happen. maybe some don't because they don't want to get blasted on here by some folks.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:01 am

500mb maps on the GFS and CMC just look bad. Can't imagine either run will produce anything

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:08 am

February 2010
December 19-20, 2009
January 23, 2016
December 26-27, 2010
January 26-27, 2011
February 11-12, 2006

What do they have in common? They featured a -AO/-NAO couplet in the days leading up to the event. I need to see that happen before I get excited about a "Godzilla" event.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2380
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:13 am

My only question frank is why you put a scroll about euro and possible Godzilla so far out and now it's down. Usually you only put those up when you have a really good idea. And there wasn't a huge trend was there? It was like a few runs no? I agree other than that no one says anything is a sure thing and maybe it will come back on models maybe it won't.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20606
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:15 am

jmanley32 wrote:My only question frank is why you put a scroll about euro and possible Godzilla so far out and now it's down. Usually you only put those up when you have a really good idea. And there wasn't a huge trend was there? It was like a few runs no? I agree other than that no one says anything is a sure thing and maybe it will come back on models maybe it won't.

Scroll said something along the lines of "Euro consistent with showing Godzilla January 4th" which it was. That is not a forecast. Don't get me wrong, I think so far this winter the set-up next week is the better than what we've seen so far. It can still work out too. Just gotta watch.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21308
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by emokid51783 Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:32 am

Guys, let's be patient. Winter is just a month old, we've barely had time to buy 2017-2018 a drink yet, let alone take it home and get snowed on. I'm more troubled by the lack of the atmospheric river into California, which would at least give us some moist air to work with, instead of this dried out nonsense we have. From a historical look back, when we have a lot of moisture rich, but cold, air coming from the west to interact with gulf moisture, the ROIDzilla and Godzilla potential really escalates. Right now we're just batting Joltin Joe's (the clipper Smile )

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Carter bk Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:46 am

Like rayno said if u live my each model run u die by each model run the pieces are there

Carter bk

Posts : 73
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-12-07

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:50 am

Carter bk wrote:Like rayno said if u live my each model run u die by each model run the pieces are there

Amen

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:10 pm

Speaking of pieces here they are on the GFS. Ridge out west but notice what's barreling into the west coast. An Upper Level Low (ULL) which displaces the ridge further east and everything downstream turns fast. The pieces of energy you see on the eastern half of the country never come together as a result. Need this evolution to be faster so we do not have to worry about the ULL.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21308
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:14 pm

Obviously we should be cautious when operational models spew out big storms a week out like the Euro did yesterday. I still think the Euro is the best global model overall but it has been just as inconsistent as the others lately. What's interesting is how bad and inconsistent all the models have been in the mid and long range. You would think that in the 5 to 7 day time frame they would have a better handle on things and not have 500 mile differences between runs. I personally start getting really excited about potential storms when its within 72 hours.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum