Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Frank_Wx]

The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.

[mikeypizano]

From what you said Frank, I won’t even bother transferring gas from the 5 gal to the 1 gal can...

[skinsfan1177]

People will be jumping off cliffs again

[RJB8525]

Models give you very little reason to believe these days

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Latest EURO control run shows the worst case scenario (or best) depending on your point of view. Remember folks just eye candy at this point!

This is yesterdays Euro Control and not significant at this point but what I did love about this was the positioning of the low would most likely bury most of our area and give the southeast New England coastal areas (Red Sox Suck, the cape, RI and eastern CT) a snow to rain scenario. Love those just for spite.

[Guest]

The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.  

Speaking of no Atlantic blocking Frank. So many on here were talking about how we would have an actual -NAO this winter for once. Where is it? I don’t remember a time on this forum where so many predictions and forecasts busted. You come on here and are accurate and conservative which is good. MANY others come on and hype the hell out of patterns, storms etc; Some only post once in awhile with all these fancy words to sound so knowledgeable then things don’t work out and they are NEVER here to explain why they were wrong which is OFTEN.

[Carter bk]

Euro today will bring it right back like they say so much going on in the atmosphere for models to digest

[Frank_Wx]

The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.  

Speaking of no Atlantic blocking Frank.  So many on here were talking about how we would have an actual -NAO this winter for once.  Where is it?  I don’t remember a time on this forum where so many predictions and forecasts busted.  You come on here and are accurate and conservative which is good.  MANY others come on and hype the hell out of patterns, storms etc;  Some only post once in awhile with all these fancy words to sound so knowledgeable then things don’t work out and they are NEVER here to explain why they were wrong which is OFTEN.

I can't speak for others, Jim. I did not bother with a Winter Outlook this year. Not because I did not have the time but I find seasonal outlooks to be inaccurate. There are too many moving pieces to cover and it only takes one you did not call accurately to throw your entire forecast into a dumpster. We actually did have a period of a -NAO, I believe late November to early December, which lead to a minor snowfall but it was still nowhere near the high latitude blocking we saw in El Nino of 2010. Predicting the NAO is not an easy feat and often times you have to look into the Stratosphere to understand where our NAO will trend in the coming weeks and months.

Luckily we do not always need a -NAO to get a big storm. In fact, all our big storms from 2011 to 2017 did not have the type of -NAO we saw in 2009-2010. It was either weak or non-existent. Maybe they were fast moving storms but they still managed to dump a lot of snow in a short period of time. A favorable Pacific, which is what I am hoping for January 4th-5th storm, will suffice. Models show the PNA ridge and the critical 500mb upper level pieces but last night they did not come together like we wanted them to. A Pacific gives us the pieces while the Atlantic helps glue them together BUT not all the time (as described).

A word of advice to every member on this forum is to learn, understand, and appreciate the long range forecasts you read on here. Whether it's from me, Scott, Isotherm, rb, etc. we do put in time and do our best not to hype a specific event or pattern. It's hard laying out the details without showing some excitement. Or else, what's the point of even writing? I write blogs because they excite me and I like the science behind the what drives our weather. That being said, you have to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt no matter how 'accurate' you feel the author is. I'll admit the chances of them not panning out is more likely than coming to fruition. It's just the way it is with weather. Often times, it is unpredictable. Once you change your mindset then when events or pattern changes don't happen you will not feel let down. Maybe you will appreciate, or humble yourself, more.

Just my .02.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.

[oldtimer]

Excellent CP. weather 101

[billg315]

All very true. I made this very point a couple days ago. For specific storm forecasts don’t count on anything until it shows up in the forecast inside of 5 days (3 more realistically). One or two weeks out certain pattern changes can be discerned which may then tell us an environment is more, or less, favorable for a storm. But nothing more definitive than that. This doesn’t mean we can’t have fun discussing POSSIBILITIES and tracking those systems that do stay on the models, but as Frank says, you have to keep your mindset realistic. Nothing 7-10 days out is more than a coin flip.

[docstox12]

Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.

Professor CP

EXCELLENT analysis.And if I may indulge your patience, I would like to add that even when a big storm is forecast a DAY before, nothing is set in concrete until you see on the radar as the storm begins at least 8 hours of 1 to 2 inch plus rates of snowfall.I've seen dry slots, substinanace, transferals of energy etc etc turn a 12 inch plus snowstorm into a 4 inch or less.The long range models are looking through a glass darkly a week out.look at your own risk,LOL.

[amugs]

Well stated by Frank and CP.
A mouse can far in Siberia and the whole high latitude pattern goes to pot is what one pro met once said theblate and great Norm McDonald.
Being fesicious but the point is the amazing fluid dynamic we call weather is just so unpredictable at times. Look I thought the NAO would be mostly Negative for December as well as the AO. Package wave breaks galore with a massive epo and all of this latent heat being transported into the Arctic was a sign tome and others that it would translate into one. Did it happen, it did from the end of November to the 2nd wee of Dec. After that it was positive but not by much, like .5 to 1. The AO on the other hand has has pieces and the polar vortex slam us but the indicators are still about Neutral.
The winter and tropical cyclones are so hard to call, so may variable, we try our best with the tools and knowledge and technology we have (some pay for). It is is a hobby and passion. We do a very good, excellent job here discussing this science IMO.
Now let's get some.more white gold tomorrow and hopefully the Atlantic will help us out by the smidgen for next week's storm. Triple phasing storms ala 1993 are even to the pros one huge headache.

[docstox12]

Mugsy, you, Frank, Doc, rb and others do a great job taking the time to post these long range models.This is a very complicated science with so many variables that change quickly.In my mind, it is very hard to write a computer program that , at this juncture anyway, can accurately predict a week or more out what exactly will happen.A this stage they will indicate something is brewing, and the reader must be aware that models are for guidnace purposes only, a chestnut Bill Evans came up with which I totally agree with.Thanks to all the long range crew for their time and effort in advancing the science of long range forecasting.

[Guest]

Anyone that gets their hopes up for anything more than 3 days out are just being rookies. You have to learn the hard way but I finally did several years ago. Once everything in place is sampled on land which usually isn't until 3 days out at the earliest there are to many moving pieces to rely on them with any degree of certainty.

Parts of our area have now been in the 30-48 inch bullseyes for two different storms in a two week period but all at least 7 days out, it happens every year. How much disappointment should there be for those, 0 IMO because you just can't take them seriously. They are for fun only but the uninformed tend to take them seriously and I get that but any veterans on here should know better.

Have any of our pros here, Frank, Sroc, RB, Mugs, Ace, hyped anything yet as highly likely? IMO no, but people tend to listen to others that speak from limited knowledge of a few operational runs. Listen to who is saying what and how they're saying it.

Class dismissed.

Totally agree CP. my point is NOT frustration at the LR panning out. I’ve been around long enough to know it seldom does. My frustration IS when folks make bold statements about the LR and things that WILL happen and then when they DONT these same individuals never offer an explanation. They just hide. As far as this NEXT potential storm NOT ONE of our pros on here have hyped anything yet.

[jimv45]

The way I have gone for years with storms is when i see it I believe it!  Its great work that the people do on here and the weather is so unpredictable.    The models are used as a tool to make a forecast and it up to the weather people to put it all together and i think they do a fine job on here.

[Guest]

And Frank thanks for the response.  You specifically and Scott have been very cautious and conservative with your forecasts which we all appreciate.
When someone explains why something may happen and in some cases emphatically say it will, it is equally as helpful to explain why when it doesn’t.  That’s my complaint.  

As far as this next threat I don’t believe there is anyone on here who believes the snow maps will verify 8 days out.  If they do shame on them.  I’m like CP. I’ll expect a dusting.

This place has the best forecasters bar none.

[jimv45]

Syossnow94 I see people that come back here to explain why it didn't happen. maybe some don't because they don't want to get blasted on here by some folks.

[Sanchize06]

500mb maps on the GFS and CMC just look bad. Can't imagine either run will produce anything

[Math23x7]

February 2010
December 19-20, 2009
January 23, 2016
December 26-27, 2010
January 26-27, 2011
February 11-12, 2006

What do they have in common? They featured a -AO/-NAO couplet in the days leading up to the event. I need to see that happen before I get excited about a "Godzilla" event.

[jmanley32]

My only question frank is why you put a scroll about euro and possible Godzilla so far out and now it's down. Usually you only put those up when you have a really good idea. And there wasn't a huge trend was there? It was like a few runs no? I agree other than that no one says anything is a sure thing and maybe it will come back on models maybe it won't.

[Frank_Wx]

My only question frank is why you put a scroll about euro and possible Godzilla so far out and now it's down. Usually you only put those up when you have a really good idea. And there wasn't a huge trend was there? It was like a few runs no? I agree other than that no one says anything is a sure thing and maybe it will come back on models maybe it won't.

Scroll said something along the lines of "Euro consistent with showing Godzilla January 4th" which it was. That is not a forecast. Don't get me wrong, I think so far this winter the set-up next week is the better than what we've seen so far. It can still work out too. Just gotta watch.

[emokid51783]

Guys, let's be patient. Winter is just a month old, we've barely had time to buy 2017-2018 a drink yet, let alone take it home and get snowed on. I'm more troubled by the lack of the atmospheric river into California, which would at least give us some moist air to work with, instead of this dried out nonsense we have. From a historical look back, when we have a lot of moisture rich, but cold, air coming from the west to interact with gulf moisture, the ROIDzilla and Godzilla potential really escalates. Right now we're just batting Joltin Joe's (the clipper )

[Carter bk]

Like rayno said if u live my each model run u die by each model run the pieces are there

[Guest]

Like rayno said if u live my each model run u die by each model run the pieces are there

Amen

[Frank_Wx]

Speaking of pieces here they are on the GFS. Ridge out west but notice what's barreling into the west coast. An Upper Level Low (ULL) which displaces the ridge further east and everything downstream turns fast. The pieces of energy you see on the eastern half of the country never come together as a result. Need this evolution to be faster so we do not have to worry about the ULL.

[hyde345]

Obviously we should be cautious when operational models spew out big storms a week out like the Euro did yesterday. I still think the Euro is the best global model overall but it has been just as inconsistent as the others lately. What's interesting is how bad and inconsistent all the models have been in the mid and long range. You would think that in the 5 to 7 day time frame they would have a better handle on things and not have 500 mile differences between runs. I personally start getting really excited about potential storms when its within 72 hours.

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