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Long Range Thread 16.0

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:56 pm

Agree with all of the points made above, but unfortunately, I am pretty sick and don't have enough in me right now to do any in-depth analysis. However, hopefully I'll be good to go by the end of the weekend. Until then, I'll just be glancing at things and following along. Carry on lol

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:MJO entering a warm phase. 12z GEFS in agreement. We thaw beginning January 18th. Before then there could be 1-2 more snow events IMO. So instead of focusing on this thaw it's best to see what evolves out of January 9th then maybe again on the 15th as the PNA spikes again.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Nina_3_gen_mid

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59

Well hopefully January 18th never arrives.

On second thought that would mean the destruction of the entire universe should time cease to continue to a certain point so let me rephrase. Hopefully the pattern does not Change on January 18th and make our Warmists on this thread happy. You all know who you are.
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:18 am

I agree with Frank

We have a little event for Monday night which shouldn't amount to anything beside maybe an inch of snow and then a possible bigger storm next weekend.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:12 pm

The storm next weekend is still on the warmer side for us on current guidance. Changes will occur but im favoring wet than white at this time.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:40 pm

Did anyone see Ukie for snj Monday?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The storm next weekend is still on the warmer side for us on current guidance. Changes will occur but im favoring wet than white at this time.
im actually okay with that got travel plans via car but bring it on after the thaw.
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Post by Snow88 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:20 am

I think there will be a cutter and then a trailing wave after the cutter which could give us a snow event . We shall see.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:25 am

I still would not discount the idea of a transition from wet to white esp for the folks N&W.  Coast might be tough but still not dead yet either.  There are still differences in what's happening aloft and at the surface in both strength and timing of a few key players.  What IS happening is that there is a strong Canadian HP dropping south into the CONUS in response to what appears to be a +PNA ridge.  The result of this is HP also building in N of the great lakes at the same time the energy tries to cut to our west.  This would argue for the potential for a Miller B type scenario should the HP build in before the main energy cuts too far N into the GL or west of the Apps.  The extent and timing of the PNA ridging, the timing of the front, HP building in to the N of the GL, where the area of confluence sets up, and where the main vort max is coming out of the S relative to the timing of the aforementioned details is still somewhat in question.   One thing is for sure models have an extremely tough time resolving the true extent of the cold air on the evolution of the pattern which is the likely reason for differences in some of the details in the final soln.  We have seen examples of this several times thus far this winter season.  Between any left over snow pack in the NE and the injection of once again extremely cold air mass It would not surprise me, and you either, to see the system for late week to trend colder than what is currently modeled.  To what extent is yet to be determined.  DO NOT write it off just yet esp for the folks N&W.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf_46
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Gfs_sl11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Cmc_pr10

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:25 am

@Snow88 wrote:I think there will be a cutter and then a trailing wave after the cutter which could give us a snow event . We shall see.

Agree. See above

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by Guest on Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:03 am

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

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Post by HectorO on Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:21 am

syosnow94 wrote:Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:23 am

syosnow94 wrote:Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Doc's analysis above is very interesting and it will be fun watching how it plays out.Not buying yet that bounce of temps into the mid 40's they have for me the end of next week.
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Post by Guest on Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:24 am

@HectorO wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.

I usually feel like you do, but this last 16” of snow made this cold snap worthwhile to me.  Had we gone snowless I would have been extremely frustrated. Also there’s A LOT of cold air just to our north plus frigid ocean temps and a great snowpack. I think guidance will definitely trend colder. Seen this set up a million times.

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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:59 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I still would not discount the idea of a transition from wet to white esp for the folks N&W.  Coast might be tough but still not dead yet either.  There are still differences in what's happening aloft and at the surface in both strength and timing of a few key players.  What IS happening is that there is a strong Canadian HP dropping south into the CONUS in response to what appears to be a +PNA ridge.  The result of this is HP also building in N of the great lakes at the same time the energy tries to cut to our west.  This would argue for the potential for a Miller B type scenario should the HP build in before the main energy cuts too far N into the GL or west of the Apps.  The extent and timing of the PNA ridging, the timing of the front, HP building in to the N of the GL, where the area of confluence sets up, and where the main vort max is coming out of the S relative to the timing of the aforementioned details is still somewhat in question.   One thing is for sure models have an extremely tough time resolving the true extent of the cold air on the evolution of the pattern which is the likely reason for differences in some of the details in the final soln.  We have seen examples of this several times thus far this winter season.  Between any left over snow pack in the NE and the injection of once again extremely cold air mass It would not surprise me, and you either, to see the system for late week to trend colder than what is currently modeled.  To what extent is yet to be determined.  DO NOT write it off just yet esp for the folks N&W.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf_46
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Gfs_sl11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 23 Cmc_pr10

I trust no guidance beyond 72 hours.
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Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.

I usually feel like you do, but this last 16” of snow made this cold snap worthwhile to me.  Had we gone snowless I would have been extremely frustrated. Also there’s A LOT of cold air just to our north plus frigid ocean temps and a great snowpack.  I think guidance will definitely trend colder.  Seen this set up a million times.
First of all almost all reporting stations are very close to there total snowfall for winter and we're only at January 7th. You do not need a lot of qpf to reach climo snowfall. Plus what do you expect when we are -20 temperature departures there will not be a ton of moisture with that. hasn't anybody learned anything on here the last several years. Take for example 95-96 after the blizzard we had a driving rainstorm a week later it happens every winter we can't go cold too cold snow to snow the entire winter
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:32 am

I remember that 95-96 scenario well.I had over 36 inches on the ground when that rainstorm hit a few days later.It started as snow in Mahwah NJ, and it was heavy.In fact, close to 8 inches had accumulated putting me close to four feet.However, it changed to rain, the ultimate bummer of bummers.I remember rivers of water running down my driveway past the three foot snow tunnels I had dug out.Not liking what I see this morning as per NWS for Friday and Saturday.If they are right, it could be an episode of the old tv cop show Dragnet....."The Big Melt"! Stay tuned!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:31 am

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

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Post by Guest on Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:39 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

WARMICIST Wink

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Post by Snow88 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:07 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long
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Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:50 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long
It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest of January for most of our area
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:23 pm

Do you long range pros see any chances for Godzillas before spring? It seems January is shot for snow so we got Feb and I hear march go be early spring so essentially we have 4 to 5 weeks to get anymore storms.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:24 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long
It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest  of January for most of our area
slipped reading your post my bad but Jan looks less likely. What bout Feb?
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long
It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest  of January for most of our area
slipped reading your post my bad but Jan looks less likely. What bout Feb?

Jan will have its snow chances Jon. If you look at surface maps only you will likely miss it.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:41 pm

Feb is climtaologically our snowiest month. Will we have a godzilla chance Jon. I would say there is a possibility duentobthe warm water of the Atlantic.
Warm up seems to be two days warm, colds hits in between. Not some long drawn out torch. Canada is frigid. MJO seems to be stuck in phase 2 due to the convection false up in that region as per JB shows. IF THIS holds and doesn't go to null it will be interesting to see the downstream effete in the WPO and EPO regions.

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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:43 pm

Saturday is going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relinquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.


Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:59 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Stupid Cell Phone keyboard and my fat fingers!!)

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