Long Range Thread 16.0
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snowday111
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48 posters
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Ok rb I give. You win. You bitch-slapped me pretty good there. I hope you’re right. I don’t get the snow totals reference though
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
syosnow94 wrote:Ok rb I give. You win. You bitch-slapped me pretty good there. I hope you’re right. I don’t get the snow totals reference though
I meant no disrespect by my reply; I hope it did not come across that way, or even come across as being "stern". If it did, I sincerely apologize. I was just stating facts in response. I hope I'm right too, buddy, believe me; the taste of crow gets old after a while, and I'd hate to have to sit through another meal of with egg on my face ahahaha and it was referring to your calculation of only having less than four weeks of actual winter left lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
18z NAM a little colder for wednesday


aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

HELOOO N&W
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
From Dougie Fesh Pro Met
If you want a front end thump, this is the SLP position to do it. The HP off the Mid-Atlantic coast is much less emphasized, and the 1040mb HP to our northeast provides a classic NE low-level cold drain. Notice how the higher isobars bend back to the Southwest. The NE low-level cold drain coming off of New England is also a dry source region without downsloping, so you can keep lower dewpoints without sacrificing moisture.

If you want a front end thump, this is the SLP position to do it. The HP off the Mid-Atlantic coast is much less emphasized, and the 1040mb HP to our northeast provides a classic NE low-level cold drain. Notice how the higher isobars bend back to the Southwest. The NE low-level cold drain coming off of New England is also a dry source region without downsloping, so you can keep lower dewpoints without sacrificing moisture.

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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
amugs wrote:
HELOOO N&W
A lot of that is sleet. Looks like a front end thump of 1-3" then over to 40's and rain

aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
amugs wrote:Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.
LOL, i'm not! Just letting you know that it's not all snow haha, though yes, NW could do well on the front end, and it wouldnt take much further SE shift to get mostly snow! Still have time for trends!
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
0z GFS AND CMC much colder and SE for Wednesday. Mostly all snow for NW folks and snow to rain back to a solid period of snow for NYC east
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
CMC GFS RGEM






aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Upton:
The model trend is ewd with the low, with both the
GFS and ECMWF now bringing the low over NYC and LI around 00Z
Thu. For the ECMWF, this is 148 mi SE of the position 24 hours
ago. Another shift of this magnitude would cause the low to
track invof the benchmark Wed ngt. Because of this, the HWO
will continue to be highlighted for Orange county, with room for
expansion should this trend continue.
The model trend is ewd with the low, with both the
GFS and ECMWF now bringing the low over NYC and LI around 00Z
Thu. For the ECMWF, this is 148 mi SE of the position 24 hours
ago. Another shift of this magnitude would cause the low to
track invof the benchmark Wed ngt. Because of this, the HWO
will continue to be highlighted for Orange county, with room for
expansion should this trend continue.
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Any sense of timing for Wed? Am or pm?
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Germany!!




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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Vday storm before we AN temp wise


_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
CMC ens 

aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
amugs wrote:Vday storm before we AN temp wise
I’ll believe it when I see it Al. Is your post implying we go above normal temperatures starting after V Day?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
As of right now it doesn’t get any worse for us snow weenies. A storm every three days dropping an avg if 1” qpf on our area for 2 weeks straight during what should be the coldest part of winter and fir most of the board it’s rain. The worst thing weather wise you could ever read. Hopefully the far NAND W crew get into some but for the rest of us........ The best would be after all these storms, we get the cold back but no srorms
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.
It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.
It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
I'm surprised no thread about the 7th yet


RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
RGEM is still cold. Who will win lol
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Just like Yesterday with the ice when the forecast called for rain I expect this to go colder with more snow this time will see.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Separate thread for the 7th posted
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
A great article regarding defining of the "Polar Vortex" Stratosphere vs Troposphere. I encourage everyone to read.
https://medium.com/@StuOstro/science-and-semantics-of-the-polarvortex-ae73d6fe08c3

https://medium.com/@StuOstro/science-and-semantics-of-the-polarvortex-ae73d6fe08c3

Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
MY MJO IS COMING BACK PEEPS!!!!!!!!
Moderate Phase 8 is a very good sign - me likey!! And it looks to run to 1

Moderate Phase 8 is a very good sign - me likey!! And it looks to run to 1

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Page 37 of 40 • 1 ... 20 ... 36, 37, 38, 39, 40

» Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)
» Long Range Thread 16.0
» Long Range Thread 7.0
» Long Range Thread 24.0
» Long Range Thread 12.0
» Long Range Thread 16.0
» Long Range Thread 7.0
» Long Range Thread 24.0
» Long Range Thread 12.0
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