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Long Range Thread 16.0

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm

Ill tell you what.  With how fast the strat will change over the next 7days, and how linked the strat and toposphere are with each other with this SSWE occurring once the models figure out how it will affect the atmosphere do not be surprised to see DRASTIC flipping in the modeling over the next few days.  Flipping for the better.  Ray in his frustrated post earlier eluded to this as well...lol

I mean look at the teleconnections on the GEFS and how literally they are doing an about face on todays 12z.  Now keep in mind this is nothing more than a graph and its the first run, but by the 16th or so if the GEFS are correct we could be staring down the barrel of a -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking pattern setting up. We have to keep an eye on the modeling because its going to change.  

EPO 00z Feb 5th, 00z Feb 7th, and 12z Feb 12th

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_5t10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_7t10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_7t11

AO Same dates

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a13

NAO same dates:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n13
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n14

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:48 pm

Talk to me when we have this current radar and temps in the 20s north of my black line

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 C116dd10

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Talk to me when we have this current radar and temps in the 20s north of my black line

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 C116dd10


There is something mighty fishy about that Rain Snow Line James.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Talk to me when we have this current radar and temps in the 20s north of my black line

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 C116dd10


There is something mighty fishy about that Rain Snow Line James.  

lol!

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Earthlight and Isotherm harping on blocking and SSW split -

Way too much focus on actual numbers, heights, temps, etc on ensembles. Focus should be on the Kara/Barents Sea...where the EPS are beginning to signal major high latitude blocking in wake of the SSW...

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 671E5282-080B-4F17-8484-DA05BEFBEF7B.gif.645f0017f7f53d386da68492df789775


Take a look at the 12z GEFS too.  Really starting to look nice.  Dare I say it....storm signal for the 16th-17th(+/- a day) time frame?  Could it be enough to dig a northern s/w into the pattern more so than what we've seen?  Preliminary general idea.  That is all.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37

Scott,

As the models catch onto this massive perturbation in the PAC and PV we should some some nice solutions as they move closer to this in time. A huge MJO wave, massive SOI crash and obliteration of teh PV is causing the models to go batty

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:55 pm

Scott you are a Genius with tah call - EURO says hello for the pattern on the 17th - delay it a day or two as usual but ripe:
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:22 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Talk to me when we have this current radar and temps in the 20s north of my black line

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 C116dd10

lol. I'll sign for this one. No offense to those on the wrong side of that black line. Laughing
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:14 pm

Just checked the NWS forecast for the next 7 days. I clicked on an area between Albany and Binghamton. A place called Margaretville in the Catskills. Waaaaaaay up in elevation too. They have all rain forecast for Sunday and next Tuesday Wednesday. If that’s their forecast the rest of us are toast. Sayonara

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:41 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Just checked the NWS forecast for the next 7 days.  I clicked on an area between Albany and Binghamton.  A place called Margaretville in the Catskills.  Waaaaaaay up in elevation too.  They have all rain forecast for Sunday and next Tuesday Wednesday.  If that’s their forecast the rest of us are toast.  Sayonara

facepalm


Your going to have to wade through 50 to get to the promise land. It’s coming.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:01 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Just checked the NWS forecast for the next 7 days.  I clicked on an area between Albany and Binghamton.  A place called Margaretville in the Catskills.  Waaaaaaay up in elevation too.  They have all rain forecast for Sunday and next Tuesday Wednesday.  If that’s their forecast the rest of us are toast.  Sayonara

facepalm


Your going to have to wade through 50 to get to the promise land. It’s coming.

Right with you Doc, let's do this!!!!!!
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:58 pm

Jim,
I told you last week here when we were saying that it was not gonna be a pretty pattern till late Feb to go into hibernation. Until then just go.
See you Feb 20th or so.
Safe travels.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:40 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Just checked the NWS forecast for the next 7 days.  I clicked on an area between Albany and Binghamton.  A place called Margaretville in the Catskills.  Waaaaaaay up in elevation too.  They have all rain forecast for Sunday and next Tuesday Wednesday.  If that’s their forecast the rest of us are toast.  Sayonara

THAT'S IT. SYO BROKE MY LAST STRAW. LOONEY BIN, HERE I COME!!!!!! YAAAAAAAAAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Like Scott with the surprise snow event a couple weeks ago, consider me Captain Quint with this pattern change:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BpGS_E0xIvA

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:00 pm

These operational models are so confused right now it's comical lol even the Ensembles are like "Which way do we go, George??" Lmaooo

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:These operational models are so confused right now it's comical lol even the Ensembles are like "Which way do we go, George??" Lmaooo

I have to say though rb the Heights rising over the Barents Sea straights is impressive - this will have great affects on our sensible weather downstream. Also it will have possible profound affects on teh overall pattern as well in the LR.

EPS

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11

Lastly the tropical forcing and wave that I was talking about the other day is real IMO!! Keep those waves moving with the WWB.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 ECMF_phase_51m_small
From JB
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Soi_cr10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Mjo_wa10


https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/961617611820814336

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:10 pm

I share with you two posts by one by mini Earthlight and Earthlight himself :


mini Earthlight
expect a MECS+ somewhere on the EC from Feb 25-Mar 15. The coupling of the SSW and its effects on high latitude blocking will suppress the TPV southward. This will result in an elongated TPV (which is what we saw before; it produced) along with a stout -NAO/AO. The N Pacific is more uncertain, but the Phase 8-1 MJO is favorable for WC ridging, and it is certainly possible that the high latitude blocking may enter into the EPO and WPO domains.



All of these factors lead me to believe that we will see the highest impact system of this winter during the period mentioned above. This will most likely occur as the -NAO/AO starts to weaken, which i see occurring during the second week of March. I also anticipate a smaller winter storm threat as the pattern initially settles in during the Feb 20-26 period. Buckle up.

EARTHLIGHT:

One of the things I continue to stress both here and to our clients/etc is the lack of confidence regarding cold air invading the USA. It should be made consistently clear that this SSW does not guarantee anomalous cold will flow into the USA. Despite the shifting -NAM state and development of a -AO, the Pacific pattern remains in flux initially as the NPO forecast offers a huge spread. This is evidenced on ensembles with tremendous muting occurring in the medium range.



With that being said, there should be zero concern about that in the Northeast. In fact, there should be the opposite - excitement. The development of a large ridge in the Barents/Kara sea is supported by all ensemble guidance which will impact the positioning of the tropospheric pv over Canada. As the MJO moves into more favorable phases and tropical forcing begins to impact the Pacific pattern we should see a favorable developing waveguide. Multiple disturbances should be at play as we move forward into the latter part of February. High latitude ridging will nose down into Greenland and residual ridging over Alaska will keep at least a reasonable and favorable cold air source to our North.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 BCAA3FBA-A538-4EA7-B1F3-9671D8332B7F.jpeg.7f6900f49362c758679ca4326aa3878c

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:18 pm

amugs wrote:I share with you two posts by one by mini Earthlight and Earthlight himself :


mini Earthlight
expect a MECS+ somewhere on the EC from Feb 25-Mar 15. The coupling of the SSW and its effects on high latitude blocking will suppress the TPV southward. This will result in an elongated TPV (which is what we saw before; it produced) along with a stout -NAO/AO. The N Pacific is more uncertain, but the Phase 8-1 MJO is favorable for WC ridging, and it is certainly possible that the high latitude blocking may enter into the EPO and WPO domains.



All of these factors lead me to believe that we will see the highest impact system of this winter during the period mentioned above. This will most likely occur as the -NAO/AO starts to weaken, which i see occurring during the second week of March. I also anticipate a smaller winter storm threat as the pattern initially settles in during the Feb 20-26 period. Buckle up.

EARTHLIGHT:

One of the things I continue to stress both here and to our clients/etc is the lack of confidence regarding cold air invading the USA. It should be made consistently clear that this SSW does not guarantee anomalous cold will flow into the USA. Despite the shifting -NAM state and development of a -AO, the Pacific pattern remains in flux initially as the NPO forecast offers a huge spread. This is evidenced on ensembles with tremendous muting occurring in the medium range.



With that being said, there should be zero concern about that in the Northeast. In fact, there should be the opposite - excitement. The development of a large ridge in the Barents/Kara sea is supported by all ensemble guidance which will impact the positioning of the tropospheric pv over Canada. As the MJO moves into more favorable phases and tropical forcing begins to impact the Pacific pattern we should see a favorable developing waveguide. Multiple disturbances should be at play as we move forward into the latter part of February. High latitude ridging will nose down into Greenland and residual ridging over Alaska will keep at least a reasonable and favorable cold air source to our North.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 BCAA3FBA-A538-4EA7-B1F3-9671D8332B7F.jpeg.7f6900f49362c758679ca4326aa3878c

Ok, now that's encouraging lol. I am just not sure exactly who they are.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:Ill tell you what.  With how fast the strat will change over the next 7days, and how linked the strat and toposphere are with each other with this SSWE occurring once the models figure out how it will affect the atmosphere do not be surprised to see DRASTIC flipping in the modeling over the next few days.  Flipping for the better.  Ray in his frustrated post earlier eluded to this as well...lol

I mean look at the teleconnections on the GEFS and how literally they are doing an about face on todays 12z.  Now keep in mind this is nothing more than a graph and its the first run, but by the 16th or so if the GEFS are correct we could be staring down the barrel of a -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking pattern setting up.  We have to keep an eye on the modeling because its going to change.  

EPO 00z Feb 5th, 00z Feb 7th, and 12z Feb 12th

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_5t10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_7t10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Feb_7t11

AO Same dates

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_a13

NAO same dates:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n13
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Gefs_n14

Great analysis, as always, Scott!

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:28 pm

I can't wait for everything to align to get a storm but not while I'm in Florida! March 4-11th it has to be cold and dry here! LGM!

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:42 pm

Loving my 15 day of ranging from 37 to 55. Just aweful this is no winter. Please tell me this will change otherwise I think we can say we had our last snow and it's spring already.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:18 am

JMan, see Janet's post up there? Our huge snowstorm hits the week of March 4-11.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:47 am

I thought our pattern change back to snow storms will be the end of February into March

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:45 am

Steve D threw in the towel lol

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Captur24

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:00 am

aiannone wrote:Steve D threw in the towel lol

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Captur24

Not so far fetched.We have had two below normal months in temps.Reversion to the mean could be mild from now on.The Long Range crew disagrees and hopefully they will be right.Fact is, however, time is passing.Presdient's Day to March 15 is the last chance to get a big snowstorm.After March 15th, it gets harder and harder for a big snowstorm.It happens but not very often.Here's hoping for the best!!!!!
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:27 am

Evolution of the 10mb strat...Jan 23rd, Feb 3rd, Feb 9th...pay particular attention in the first two images there is a large ridge on the left side of the vortex, but in the last 5 days a second lobe/ridge has appeared on the R side.  In 3 more days the ridges on the L and R sides will link over top of the arctic circle in spectacular fashion splitting the strat polar vortex into two lobes..  

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_j10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_f10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_f11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_57

In 3 days it will look like this...

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_58


I mentioned yesterday the GFS has hands down been the better of the two between it and euro forecasting the MJO.  Here was the GEFS MJO From Feb 6th showing the hint at phase 8 but Feb 7th its back to getting stuck in 7 vs the euro that still seems to be correcting to the GEFS but still has it decreasing amplitude and getting into 8.  Until I see the MJO make some headway towards 8 I will pause....BUT with how significant (I and I cant stress this enough) the changes will be to the strat in the upcoming 3-7days, there will be a huge atmospheric shake up.  The period to watch is Feb20th-23rd-Mid March for the real deal Holyfield, but I am still watching the 16th-18th VERY closely for a wintery event.    


Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f13
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmf_f10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:30 am

sroc4 wrote:

I mentioned yesterday the GFS has hands down been the better of the two between it and euro forecasting the MJO.  Here was the GEFS MJO From Feb 6th showing the hint at phase 8 but Feb 7th its back to getting stuck in 7 vs the euro that still seems to be correcting to the GEFS but still has it decreasing amplitude and getting into 8.  Until I see the MJO make some headway towards 8 I will pause....BUT with how significant (I and I cant stress this enough) the changes will be to the strat in the upcoming 3-7days, there will be a huge atmospheric shake up.  The period to watch is Feb20th-23rd-Mid March for the real deal Holyfield, but I am still watching the 16th-18th VERY closely for a wintery event.    


Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f13
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmf_f10

And here is todays MJO forecasts...GEFS then EURO. Alot of volitility

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f14
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmf_f11

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:45 am

sroc4 wrote:Evolution of the 10mb strat...Jan 23rd, Feb 3rd, Feb 9th...pay particular attention in the first two images there is a large ridge on the left side of the vortex, but in the last 5 days a second lobe/ridge has appeared on the R side.  In 3 more days the ridges on the L and R sides will link over top of the arctic circle in spectacular fashion splitting the strat polar vortex into two lobes..  

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_j10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_f10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 10mb_f11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_57

In 3 days it will look like this...

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_58


I mentioned yesterday the GFS has hands down been the better of the two between it and euro forecasting the MJO.  Here was the GEFS MJO From Feb 6th showing the hint at phase 8 but Feb 7th its back to getting stuck in 7 vs the euro that still seems to be correcting to the GEFS but still has it decreasing amplitude and getting into 8.  Until I see the MJO make some headway towards 8 I will pause....BUT with how significant (I and I cant stress this enough) the changes will be to the strat in the upcoming 3-7days, there will be a huge atmospheric shake up.  The period to watch is Feb20th-23rd-Mid March for the real deal Holyfield, but I am still watching the 16th-18th VERY closely for a wintery event.    


Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f13
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ncpe_f12
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 39 Ecmf_f10

Scroc...I have faith..not giving up!! ps..where did you get the top three maps from they are really beautiful to see....
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:51 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Evolution of the 10mb strat...Jan 23rd, Feb 3rd, Feb 9th...pay particular attention in the first two images there is a large ridge on the left side of the vortex, but in the last 5 days a second lobe/ridge has appeared on the R side.  In 3 more days the ridges on the L and R sides will link over top of the arctic circle in spectacular fashion splitting the strat polar vortex into two lobes..  



I mentioned yesterday the GFS has hands down been the better of the two between it and euro forecasting the MJO.  Here was the GEFS MJO From Feb 6th showing the hint at phase 8 but Feb 7th its back to getting stuck in 7 vs the euro that still seems to be correcting to the GEFS but still has it decreasing amplitude and getting into 8.  Until I see the MJO make some headway towards 8 I will pause....BUT with how significant (I and I cant stress this enough) the changes will be to the strat in the upcoming 3-7days, there will be a huge atmospheric shake up.  The period to watch is Feb20th-23rd-Mid March for the real deal Holyfield, but I am still watching the 16th-18th VERY closely for a wintery event.    



Scroc...I have faith..not giving up!! ps..where did you get the top three maps from they are really beautiful to see....



Here is the link.  Its a really cool site.  Hover the mouse over the earth and left click and hold it down.  You can then adjust your view of the globe.  With the little wheel thing in between left and right click bottons on the mouse you can zoom in or out over any specific location.  In the bottom L corner click on the word earth and you can pick which level of the atmosphere you want to look at from sfc to 10mb(or HPa) in the atmosphere where it says height.  You can also switch and look at ocean currents as well.  Its a great site.  

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-97.37,21.15,420

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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